XRP commentator Chad Steingraber has outlined what he believes are the only two realistic outcomes for XRP now that spot ETFs have entered the market.
His post comes as investors continue to debate why XRP has not yet rallied despite a record-breaking ETF debut from Canary Capital.
Two Scenarios, One Conclusion
According to Steingraber, the math behind ETF demand leaves XRP with only two long-term possibilities. In the first scenario, XRP’s price stays at current levels while ETF issuers steadily accumulate “the entire circulating supply” over the next year.
In the second scenario, XRP’s price rises dramatically, reducing the pace of accumulation because higher prices theoretically limit how much issuers can buy.
Steingraber argues that in either case, the outlook remains positive for holders. If the circulating supply is absorbed, the scarcity would pressure prices upward.
If price rises earlier, ETFs would still play a strong role in pushing demand higher. For Steingraber, both outcomes point to the same conclusion: “Either way, we win.”
XRP ETF Mechanisms Are Delaying Visible Market Impact
His comments also echo explanations recently shared by XRPL Foundation Board Director Fabio Marzella, who addressed the lack of immediate price movement following the launch of the XRPC ETF.
Marzella noted that because ETFs settle on a T+1 cycle, issuers only receive investor funds the next business day, delaying when they can begin buying XRP.
This means even large inflows are not reflected in spot markets instantly. Early ETF demand flows through slowly and often silently, sometimes only becoming noticeable weeks after the initial launch.
Additionally, most ETF issuers acquire XRP through OTC desks rather than public exchanges. This masks the actual buying activity, giving the spot market a calm appearance despite significant accumulation behind the scenes.
Market Conditions Are Muting Early Demand
Marzella’s scenario also considers the broader macro backdrop. XRP’s ETF debut occurred during a period when Bitcoin slipped below $100,000 and dragged the wider market down with it.
Despite this, XRPC recorded $245 million in day-one inflows and one of the strongest ETF launches of 2025. Meanwhile, XRP fell from $2.52 to roughly $2.25.
With six more spot XRP ETFs set to launch from issuers including Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares, the long-term picture may be much larger than today’s numbers suggest.
Recent projections showed that if all seven XRP ETFs attract $600 million per month for a year, total inflows could reach $7.2 billion.
Using a conservative 100x multiplier, which estimates how ETF demand translates into market value, XRP could see an additional $720 billion added to its market cap, enough to push the price toward the $14 range.
Meanwhile, this depends on favorable market conditions, and at the moment, the market is largely bearish.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
