XRP Could fall to $1.02 or Rise To $5.5, Analyst Shares Why an Upward Break is More Likely

With XRP now sitting at a crossroads within a symmetrical triangle, market analyst EGRAG has shared why an upward break may be likely.

EGRAG’s disclosure comes at a time when XRP is attempting a recovery push from the ongoing market collapse. Specifically, after dropping to a two-week low of $2.08 earlier today, XRP has recovered to the $2.19 price at press time. With a 1.36% gain so far today, the token is on track to record its first intraday gain in a week.

XRP’s Symmetrical Triangle

As the recovery attempt kicks in, EGRAG recently reviewed XRP’s chances of breaking outside a persistent symmetrical triangle. For context, XRP started trading within this symmetrical triangle after it collapsed from the $3.66 peak in July. Since then, it has witnessed persistent lower highs, leading to the formation of the triangle’s descending trendline.

Notably, the ongoing downtrend, which gained momentum following the Oct. 10 market crash, has pushed XRP toward the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle. This trendline began forming as far back as November 2024 on the back of the upsurge during the U.S. elections.

EGRAG Shares Why a Bullish XRP Breakout is Likely

Despite the downward push, EGRAG insisted that bullish odds appear to be increasing. Essentially, while he maintains that XRP could break below the lower trendline or above the upper trendline, the chances of a breakout above the upper trendline have increased.

One reason he insists that an upward breakout remains likely has to do with XRP’s relative strength index (RSI). As the price has faced persistent declines over the past few weeks, EGRAG noted that XRP’s 3-day RSI has dropped to an oversold area, sending a “very strong” signal. 

Secondly, the market pundit suggested that the pattern’s symmetry favors a bullish breakout. Notably, XRP has declined to a region between $2 and $2.2, which EGRAG calls a defense zone for the bulls. If the bulls maintain this level as they have done over the past few days, a market recovery could push prices upward.

Breakout Targets

Data from his chart shows that such an upward push would successfully breach the upper trendline of the triangle once XRP recovers the $2.65 price level. The last time XRP saw this price was on Oct. 27. A rally to this area would represent a 21% increase from the current price of $2.19. 

After this breakout, XRP could first face resistance around the $2.79 price area, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement point. From this area, XRP does not have any significant Fibonacci resistance until the $5.5 breakout target. This aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and represents a 109% increase from the breakout price.

However, it is important to note that EGRAG admits that while there is the likelihood of an upward breakout from the triangle, a downward breakout is not out of the question. Notably, a drop below $2.06 could lead to a break below the lower trendline. If this happens, the breakout target is $1.02, representing a 50% drop from the price at breakout.