As XRP gains against Bitcoin, a market analyst has presented four XRPBTC macro simulation models of the possible directions the pair could take from here.
Notably, the crypto market has dropped sharply since October, and XRP has moved in the same direction with a decline of more than 25% over this period. XRP now trades near the lower end of the $2 range.
XRPBTC Simulation Models
However, despite the broader downturn, XRP has held up better than Bitcoin this month. BTC has seen an even steeper pullback, which has allowed XRP to gain 3.71% against the crypto firstborn in November. With this strength, the XRPBTC pair now stands at 0.00002374.
Amid the ongoing trend, market analyst EGRAG Crypto released a simulation that presents four possible macro outcomes for the XRPBTC pair.
He stressed that this commentary does not seek to predict the future. Instead, he built the models to show multiple possibilities regarding XRP’s direction from here. After reviewing the data from all four scenarios, he arrived at a mean XRP value of $11.
Specifically, EGRAG explained that his analysis uses different XRPBTC ratios linked to specific chart structures. Each structure supports its own technical logic.
Descending Triangle Breakdown and Breakout
For Scenario A, EGRAG considered a possible breakdown from the descending triangle. Notably, this event would lead to an XRPBTC ratio of 0.00001030. Based on this ratio, a BTC price of $100,000 would place XRP at $1.03, while a BTC price of $30,000 would put XRP at $0.309.
According to the market analyst, this remains the bearish option, but it still fits within the range of realistic macro corrections. However, a positive breakout of the same descending triangle is not out of the question.
This leads to Scenario B, which considers a bullish breakout from the descending triangle. Such a move would lead to an XRPBTC ratio of 0.000048. According to EGRAG, this type of breakout usually marks the first major expansion wave for XRP. With this ratio, BTC at $100,000 would lift XRP to $4.80, and BTC at $170,000 would raise it to $8.16.
XRP Falling Wedge and Bull Pennant Breakout
Meanwhile, Scenario C focuses on a break above the macro falling wedge. This longer-term bullish structure leads to a ratio of 0.000073. EGRAG called this a high-probability path if XRP manages to break out of the multiyear compression phase. At this ratio, BTC at $100,000 would put XRP at $7.3, while BTC at $170,000 would move XRP to $12.41.
Notably, his final setup, Scenario D, considers a bullish pennant breakout, which he believes is the strongest structure on the macro chart. This model would result in a ratio of 0.00013. Under this, XRP would reach $27 if BTC climbed to roughly $207,700. If BTC instead remained at $100,000, XRP would stand at $13.
According to EGRAG, these scenarios do not represent XRP price predictions. However, all the models combine to present a full view of potential price directions, with the average result across all simulations placing the XRP price at $11.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
