HomeCrypto NewsMarketHere's How Much XRP a BlackRock ETF with $100B Would Hold if XRP Hits $220

Here’s How Much XRP a BlackRock ETF with $100B Would Hold if XRP Hits $220

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A market pundit suggests that the XRP price would need to surge higher to accommodate the accumulation from funds like a potential BlackRock XRP ETF.

Notably, the Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC), which went live on Nov. 13, has performed exceptionally well despite the bearish mood across the crypto market. This has led to increased discussions around the potential impact of more XRP ETFs.

XRP Price Must Rise to Accommodate ETF Accumulations

Specifically, XRPC brought in $245 million on its first day and has maintained inflows for four straight days. Most recently, it added another $15.82 million on Nov. 19, lifting total inflows to $292.61 million. At current prices, this amount equals more than 138 million XRP collected in just four days.

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This rise in ETF-driven demand has encouraged community commentators to look ahead, as they estimate how much buying pressure could build once more XRP ETFs begin trading. 

Chad Steingraber, a game designer, has been one of the most vocal voices in this regard. Most recently, he argued that XRP would need to climb significantly to prevent large funds from absorbing too much of the available supply at today’s prices. 

According to him, if 12 XRP ETFs launch and each one buys millions to billions of XRP tokens, the market could face major strain, and the supply could run tight within a year unless XRP rises enough to balance the accumulation.

The Prospect of a BlackRock XRP ETF with $100B AuM

After he shared the outlook, someone asked him to factor in a scenario where BlackRock joins the market. Responding, he presented a model in which a hypothetical BlackRock XRP ETF aims for $100 billion in AuM. Interestingly, he called this the starting point. 

Steingraber noted how much XRP that amount would represent at different prices. Specifically, at XRP’s current price of $2.11, the fund would procure 47,393,364,928 XRP at a $100 billion AuM. This would put a massive strain on the circulating supply, which only sits at 60 billion at press time.

However, if XRP rises to $12, the same AuM would equal 8,333,333,333 XRP tokens, representing only 13% of the circulating supply. Further, if the price hits $25, the required holdings would drop to 4,000,000,000 XRP. Meanwhile, if XRP price claims $220, it would fall to 454,545,454 XRP tokens.

This shows that if BlackRock ever targets $100 billion in XRP assets, the price may need to climb toward $220 so the required holdings shrink to roughly 454 million units, reducing the pressure on supply. 

A Familiar Trend with Bitcoin ETFs

A familiar trend happened in the Bitcoin ETF market, but at a much lower scale. Notably, the 12 Bitcoin ETFs now hold $117.34 billion worth of Bitcoin. At today’s price of $92,500, this adds up to 1.27 million BTC, which is 6.3% of the available supply. 

However, if Bitcoin had stayed at $46,000, its level in January 2024, when ETFs launched, that same $117.34 billion would equal 2.55 million BTC, or 12.8% of the current supply. Such a lower price places more pressure on the Bitcoin supply than the current price does.

Essentially, this commentary shows how rising prices help the market absorb large-scale accumulation by preventing supply shocks. Steingraber believes new XRP ETFs could create similar pressure, which may lift prices as demand intensifies.

Notably, the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF was set to start trading on Nov. 18, but the launch faced delays, with the new launch date potentially being Nov. 24 alongside the Grayscale product. Meanwhile, Bitwise is expected to release its XRP ETF today, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

Important Disclaimer

However, it is important to note that Steingraber’s scenario rests on several assumptions that may not materialize. BlackRock, along with Fidelity and VanEck, has said it does not plan to file for an XRP ETF, much less one with a $100 billion AuM target.

Moreover, the $100 billion target within two years appears highly audacious. For context, even BlackRock’s leading Bitcoin ETF, its most successful crypto product so far, holds $69.74 billion as it approaches the two-year mark. As a result, it is rather ambitious to expect an ETF for XRP, which has a significantly lower market cap, to hit this milestone.

DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

Author

Mark Brennan
Mark Brennanhttps://thecryptobasic.com/
Mark Brennan has been active in the cryptocurrency sector since 2014. His love and passion for the nascent industry drove him to develop interest in writing about important developments and updates about cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Brennan, who holds a Masters degree in Business Administration, learned about the potential of blockchain technology. Aside from crypto journalism, Brennan runs an education center, where he educates people about the asset class.

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