A new prediction from a Bitcoin trader has added momentum to the growing narrative that XRP could face severe supply shortages sooner than expected.
According to AltcoinFox, a long-term BTC trader, the combined pressure from the upcoming wave of XRP spot ETFs may compress the available supply within months. He added that this could set the stage for aggressive price expansion.
Pending ETFs Could Drain Supply in Under a Year
Notably, AltcoinFox’s thesis claimed there are roughly “18 pending ETF” products. According to him, a unified daily intake of just $50 million per fund could overwhelm the available supply. Specifically, he speculated that these ETFs would collectively absorb $900 million per day.
Such capital flow removes hundreds of millions of XRP from the tradable market every 24 hours. AltcoinFox predicts that these inflows would make XRP “scarce within six to nine months,” leaving the price with only one likely direction: “up.”
While he paints a promising outlook based on the supposed 18 “pending ETFs,” it is worth clarifying that there are currently only four pending spot XRP ETFs: Grayscale, CoinShares, 21Shares, and WisdomTree.
Other asset managers, like Bitwise and Canary Capital, are already live and attracting inflows. Moreover, the outlook of daily $50 million inflow from each ETF does not align with current realities. For instance, over the last seven days, the Canary and Bitwise XRP ETFs have seen only $405 million in investment.
Earlier Models Support an Accelerated Supply Shock
Meanwhile, AltcoinFox’s projection aligns closely with earlier models from analyst Chad Steingraber.
In various analyses, Steingraber has repeatedly argued that XRP ETFs could absorb nearly 40 billion XRP in one year, more than two-thirds of the circulating supply.
He speculated that these accumulation rates would continue until XRP becomes too expensive for issuers to maintain the same level of daily buying, naturally forcing inflows to slow. Until then, ETF demand acts like a vacuum, pulling supply out of circulation long before price reflects the imbalance.
Tradable Supply Already Much Smaller Than Headline Numbers
The prospect of scarcity becomes even more apparent when considering XRP accessible on public exchanges. Exchange balances have been shrinking for months.
In September, The Crypto Basic reported that Coinbase’s XRP reserves dropped from around 970 million tokens to just 32 million, showing how rapidly liquidity is tightening.
Meanwhile, ecosystem projects are locking away billions more. Axelar’s mXRP and Flare’s FXRP aim to hold nearly 8 billion XRP combined, while Ripple’s 37 billion XRP and long-term investor allocations further reduce the active float.
Accordingly, market analysts estimate that retail investors may hold no more than 15% of the supply. For instance, Steingraber even suggested that only 21 million XRP may eventually remain available for active trading. While theoretical, this figure illustrates how extreme scarcity could become if ETFs scale as expected.
Why Price Hasn’t Moved Yet
Despite these forecasts, XRP’s price remains muted, still trading under the $2 range. Analysts say this lag is due to how ETF mechanics work. Most XRP accumulation occurs OTC, keeping demand invisible to spot order books.
This delayed price impact means ETFs are already quietly accumulating at scale, but the effects are not yet visible.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
