Analyst Says XRP Structure Doesn’t Signal Bear Market Despite Looming Death Cross

While XRP may be approaching a death cross, where a shorter MA moves below a longer MA, analyst EGRAG insists the structure doesn’t point to a bear market.

EGRAG made this assertion while discussing XRP’s current bearish disposition, as price struggles alongside the broader market. Despite a recent recovery attempt over the last two days to $2.24, XRP remains in a bearish position, down 10.72% this month after shedding 11.9% of its value in October.

Looming Death Cross

Amid the downtrend, EGRAG found that XRP may be close to registering a death cross on the 3-day chart, an event that might trigger steeper declines. For context, a death cross typically occurs when a shorter moving average (like the 50 MA) moves below a longer moving average (like the 200 MA). 

EGRAG confirmed that this imminent death cross has triggered emerging concerns among analysts, who have now begun calling for a potential slip into a full-blown bear market. However, he doesn’t subscribe to this interpretation. EGRAG insists that “the structure tells a different story.”

According to him, a true death cross, which leads to further price declines, only emerges when the token trades below both the 50 MA and the 200 MA. In addition to this factor, momentum has to be rolling over. This is currently not the case for XRP, as the token currently holds above the 200 MA, with this moving average itself pushing upward, not downward.

XRP Leaning More Toward 2017 and 2021 Than 2018

EGRAG insists that this structure does not lean toward a classic death cross. Meanwhile, he also pointed out that some analysts have cited historical context from the 2018 crash. Specifically, after reaching the $3.31 peak in January 2018, XRP dropped to $0.3348 in August of that year. This marked a near 90% drop within eight months.

Some analysts have reminded investors that a death cross also emerged in 2018 amid this crash, suggesting that a similar trend could be playing out today. However, EGRAG dismissed these claims. According to him, in 2018, prices already collapsed before the death cross emerged. Essentially, the price crash led to the death cross, not the other way around.

Instead, EGRAG says XRP seems to be repeating the patterns observed in 2017 and early 2021. He noted that in the 2017 and 2021 periods, XRP witnessed three patterns involving tight moving averages, price above the 200 MA, and compression, which eventually led to an explosive price surge. The analyst insists that the current cycle also follows these patterns.

He then highlighted what he believes will be the “most probable scenario” for XRP in the future. According to him, the structure suggests that XRP currently trades within a late-cycle consolidation phase, which typically precedes a final explosive surge to greater heights. He insists that this does not look like the start of a bear market.