If You Hold 1,000 to 5,000 XRP, Here’s What It Could Be Worth if ETFs Drain XRP’s Exchange Supply in 17 Months

Investors holding between 1,000 and 5,000 XRP tokens could record impressive profits if ETFs drain XRP’s exchange supply in 17 months.

The launch of XRP spot ETFs has triggered a wave of strong demand, and the early numbers show just how quickly these products keep absorbing XRP from exchanges. 

Within only eleven trading days, the four newly launched ETFs pulled in about $666 million worth of XRP, outperforming the six Solana ETFs, which have witnessed $618 million in net inflows after 23 days.

This accumulation trend has pushed several analysts to suggest that ETF issuers may eventually drain the available XRP supply on retail exchanges, creating the kind of scarcity pressure that could lead to impressive price surges.

How Long Before ETFs Drain XRP’s Exchange Supply?

One of the individuals discussing this possibility is Brad Kimes, the founder of Digital Perspectives. He recently shared that he turned to the AI model Grok to understand how much liquid XRP remains on exchanges and how long it would take for the ETFs to absorb it. 

Grok explained that, as of late November 2025, major centralized exchanges such as Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, and OKX collectively hold an estimated 5 to 6 billion XRP in tradable reserves.

The chatbot noted that Binance alone holds around 2.71 billion XRP, a figure that has dropped by 300 million XRP since early October and another 100 million XRP after the ETF launches in mid-November. 

Grok also pointed out that exchanges lost about 73 million XRP in a single day, a sign that the market continues to experience shrinking sell-side pressure as ETF buying grows. The chatbot said this remaining liquid supply represents roughly 9% to 11% of the circulating 56 billion XRP.

When Kimes asked how long the ETFs would need to pull this supply off the market, Grok reviewed inflows from Nov. 25 to 27 and observed that issuers took in an average of $26 million per day over those three sessions.

At a price of $2.20 per XRP, this demand equals about 11.8 million XRP bought each day. Grok calculated that, at this pace, ETF issuers would need about 422 days to absorb 5 billion XRP, and about 506 days to absorb 6 billion XRP, which places the full drain within about 14 to 17 months. 

Possible Impact on XRP Price

However, it remains unclear how such a supply shock could impact the XRP price. To ascertain this, we asked Google Gemini. Notably, Gemini explained that crypto assets rarely rise in a straight line during scarcity events. 

Instead, they tend to climb exponentially because buyers must push the price higher to convince remaining holders to sell. It then referred to Bank of America’s 2021 analysis, which found that every $1 flowing into Bitcoin created about $118 in added market value during periods of tight supply.

Using similar logic, Gemini presented several price zones that XRP could reach if ETFs absorb most of the remaining 5 to 6 billion liquid tokens. It said the first major level sits between $8 and $13, driven by strong momentum. 

Gemini then described a more intense supply crunch that could lift XRP toward $20 to $25 if investors try to price it alongside Ethereum (ETH), especially if ETH’s valuation climbs toward $1 trillion in a future bull run. 

In its most bullish scenario, Gemini highlighted a full liquidity vacuum in which ETF issuers must buy XRP at any price because they have no sellers left to meet demand. In that case, Gemini said XRP could break above $50.

Gemini also presented how this climb could ensue over 17 months. It described the first six months as an accumulation phase that lifts XRP from $2.20 to $5, followed by a realization phase from months seven to twelve that pushes it toward $15, and ending with a mania phase where extreme scarcity drives sudden spikes into the $20 to $50+ range.

How Much Your 1,000 to 5,000 XRP Would Be Worth

Such price surges would have far-reaching effects on investor holdings, especially those holding thousands of XRP tokens. For instance, data shows that 596,029 wallets hold between 1,000 and 5,000 XRP tokens, the third-largest address cluster on the XRP Rich List. 

For this class of holders, the potential gains become enormous. At today’s levels, 1,000 XRP equals about $2,200, and 5,000 XRP equals about $11,000. If XRP reaches $50, 1,000 tokens would grow to $50,000, which represents a gain of $47,800. Meanwhile, the 5,000 XRP would rise to $250,000, creating $239,000 in profit. 

Also, even at the lower $20 target, the profit would be impressive. Notably, if XRP hits $20 instead, those holding 1,000 XRP would see their holdings rise to $20,000, marking a profit of $17,800. Meanwhile, those holding 5,000 XRP would see their holdings grow to $100,000, representing a profit of $89,000.