Expert Shares 3 Reasons XRP Failed to Hit Its Bullish 2025 Targets

With XRP on track to end 2025 at the $2 mark, a market commentator has shared why the token missed its bullish targets for the year.

For context, XRP opened 2025 with impressive momentum after jumping 290% across November and December 2024. This surge fueled optimism, and many analysts expected the asset to keep climbing throughout the year. 

However, now that the final month of 2025 has arrived, XRP shows a 2.76% loss for the year and has missed every major target set at the start. Amid the growing shift in sentiment, market commentator Zach Rector recently explained why XRP failed to deliver on those bullish expectations.

Late Resolution to the SEC vs. Ripple Case

Rector explained in a recent video that three major events slowed XRP’s progress. According to him, the first event was the long-running legal fight between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He noted that the case did not officially end until Aug. 22, 2025, which kept a cloud of uncertainty over XRP for most of the year. 

For context, after the SEC dropped its appeal in March 2025 as a more crypto-friendly leadership took over the agency, the negotiations for settlements lasted for months as procedural issues disrupted several attempts to finalize a deal. 

Both sides eventually agreed to end all remaining appeals in August. Ripple paid a reduced $50 million penalty and secured a waiver that covers future U.S. offerings. The end of the lawsuit restored clarity, but this happened late in the year.

Late Arrival of XRP ETFs

For the second reason, Rector mentioned the delays surrounding the first U.S.-based XRP exchange-traded funds. He said issuers waited for the lawsuit to end before moving forward. Just as the market expected the ETFs to launch in October, a government shutdown interrupted the timeline and pushed their debut into November.

Notably, the shutdown blocked regulators from reviewing documents, so several issuers revised their S-1 filings to remove language that allowed further delays. This change triggered automatic 20-day countdowns under SEC rules. 

Canary Capital’s XRP ETF launched first on Nov. 13 under the ticker XRPC on Nasdaq. Bitwise followed shortly after, with Grayscale and Franklin Templeton launching their own products soon afterward. However, these products debuted late in the year.

Clarity Act Still Pending

Rector then presented the third major factor: the ongoing wait for Congress to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. He emphasized that many investors expected this bill to strengthen the industry’s regulatory foundation and lead to fresh growth. 

For context, the bill already cleared two House committees and passed the full House with broad bipartisan support on July 17. Senate leaders originally aimed to wrap up work by Sept. 30, but the same government shutdown that affected the ETF timeline also slowed legislative progress. 

Talks restarted in early November, and the Senate Agriculture Committee released a bipartisan draft that energized the market by classifying most digital assets as commodities under CFTC oversight and reinforcing decentralization standards. 

At press time, the Senate still needs to complete its markup and schedule a floor vote. Prediction markets now assign a 30% chance of passage this year, and industry groups continue to push for stronger retail protections and clearer rules for custody.

Rector concluded that these three events – the long lawsuit, the ETF delays, and the unsettled legislation – pushed back the expected rally. He argued that XRP still follows the broader trend analysts anticipated and said he expects the asset to reach those high-end targets in 2026.