Bernstein raised its 2026 price projection for Bitcoin to $150,000, citing stronger institutional participation.
Additionally, the firm noted a break from the asset’s traditional four-year cycle.
Institutional Demand Is Reshaping Bitcoin’s Market Structure
In its latest analysis, Bernstein says Bitcoin’s market rhythm has shifted. Specifically, the firm notes that institutional flows, rather than retail speculation, now drive the asset’s behavior, creating more stability during periods of volatility.
This shift became evident during the recent market pullback. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw only about 5% outflows while Bitcoin slid from above $126,000 to the $80,000 range. Bernstein interprets this modest ETF outflow, compared to the 30% drop in Bitcoin’s price, as a sign of a maturing asset class.
Building on this outlook, the firm introduced a new set of projections for Bitcoin. Specifically, it projected $150,000 price for 2026, a potential peak of around $200,000 in 2027, and a long-term path toward $1 million by 2033.
Tom Lee Backs the Extended Bull-Cycle Thesis
Meanwhile, Bitmine chairperson Tom Lee expressed similar expectations at Binance Blockchain Week. He said the long-standing four-year cycle could break within the next eight weeks as market behavior continues to shift.
Lee has, however, revised his short-term estimates. In an interview with CNBC last month, he cut his year-end target from $250,000 to a level above $100,000. He added that Bitcoin may only potentially retest its October all-time high of $126,200, although he still sees room for a new peak. The adjustment marks his first public softening of earlier projections.
Rate-Cut Expectations Add to Market Momentum
These evolving market views come as investors also weigh broader economic conditions that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
With attention turning to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, expectations for easing monetary conditions are adding another layer of support to the bullish narrative.
Analysts anticipate a 0.25% interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, which would be the third reduction this year.
In a recent newsletter, David Brickell and Chris Mills of the London Crypto Club stated that a dovish policy shift, particularly if accompanied by expanded bond purchases, could boost Bitcoin by increasing liquidity.
They described the combination of rate cuts and balance-sheet expansion as a strong backdrop for risk assets heading into the new year.
Similarly, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research also expects another cut, describing it as the near-universal view among policymakers.
Market indicators further reinforce this outlook. For instance, the CME FedWatch tool indicates an 86% chance of a quarter-point cut. Meanwhile, prediction markets on Polymarket place the odds near 94%.
Historically, such environments have favored Bitcoin, as declining risk-free yields push investors toward assets with higher return potential.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
