The ongoing weakness in Bitcoin price may be more than a temporary pullback, according to new on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant.
Woo Minkyu, a verified author on the platform, says market data is increasingly aligning with conditions of past bear market transitions.
BCMI Signals a Deeper Market Reset
Woo points to the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), which returned to the 0.5 zone on October 21. At the time, this move was interpreted as a normal cooling phase rather than a cycle top.
However, since then, Bitcoin’s price has declined by more than 30%, with BCMI falling alongside it. According to Woo, this confirms that the market has not only cooled over time but has also undergone a reset, as evidenced by both price action and on-chain momentum.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,900 after dipping 32% from its all time high of $126,198.
Why This Matters for BTC Market Direction
Historically, major Bitcoin cycle bottoms have formed when BCMI dropped into the 0.25–0.35 range. This occurred during the 2019 and 2023 lows.
At current levels, BCMI is already below its equilibrium zone but remains well above those historical bottom ranges. This suggests the market may still be in transition rather than at a completed reset point.
From a data-driven perspective, Woo explains that this setup raises the possibility that Bitcoin is entering a bear phase rather than experiencing a standard correction. If history holds, a more durable bottom may form only if BCMI revisits levels seen during previous bear market lows.
He stresses that this is not a price forecast but rather a scenario investors should be aware of under current market conditions.
Bitcoin BCMI Update — A Bear Market Scenario Is Becoming More Relevant
“From a data-driven perspective, this opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback.” – By @Woo_Minkyu pic.twitter.com/wwWhaBWsH2
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2025
Bitcoin Network Slows Down; Analyst Predicts $37,500 Bottom
Separately, CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain noted that Bitcoin network activity has been declining and speculative trading has eased. Both are common signs of a bear market.
Data shows fewer transactions, lower network fees, and a decline in highly active addresses. This suggests reduced demand for Bitcoin’s network and fewer large traders or institutions actively participating. These conditions often occur during quiet accumulation phases, when investors are cautious.
GugaOnChain noted that the current situation resembles the 2018 bear market, which was also characterized by low activity and low fees. However, Bitcoin’s network is significantly stronger today, with more users than at that time, which could help limit the extent of price declines.
Looking ahead, analyst Ali Martinez predicts that Bitcoin may not reach its final market bottom until around October 2026. He sees a possible decline of up to 70% to approximately $37,500.
288 days remain until Bitcoin $BTC reaches a market bottom, likely around $37,500. https://t.co/C66sa3fEnw pic.twitter.com/djmmCTMNk3
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) December 22, 2025
Overall, while Bitcoin’s network is displaying typical bear-market behavior, its larger user base may help mitigate the risk of an extreme downside.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
