Amid a wave of uncertainty in the crypto market, a recent analysis has identified the possibility of further XRP declines to multi-month lows.
XRP again failed to reclaim the $2 price level yesterday, as an early rally to an intraday high of $1.91 ended in a price rejection. It has since relinquished all gains to change hands at $1.86 at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, with a day left before the end of the year, XRP has not quite impressed. Specifically, it has corrected by over 40% from its July high of $3.66 and trades at a YTD loss of 19% despite a strong start to 2025.
XRP Risks Further Downsides
Nonetheless, there could be more downside risks, veteran analyst Ali Martinez identified in a recent X post. According to him, the coin could fall by 56% to $0.80, a price last seen over a year ago.
He didn’t just merely disclose this possibility; Martinez attached on-chain and technical analysis to back his speculations. Notably, his first point centers on the dwindling user activity on the XRP Ledger.
Martinez highlighted that network activity on the Ledger has cooled considerably, with daily active addresses falling to 38,500. It dropped 16% from 46,000 daily users earlier in December, signaling growing disinterest and a lack of participation in the XRP Ledger.
Furthermore, he identified selling pressure from XRP whales as a factor that could spur further downsides. Specifically, he cited an earlier analysis from December 27 showing that XRP held by whales has dropped by 40 million tokens, as these large holders are either taking profits or cutting losses.
Notably, this activity adds pressure to the token supply and weakens demand. Additionally, it dampens market sentiment, signaling a lack of confidence among large holders.
Key Support at Risk
Meanwhile, Martinez noted that XRP could break below a key support area if the selling momentum persists. Specifically, it could fall below the $1.77 demand zone, paving the path for further corrections.
XRP recently tested this support when it dropped to an intraday low of $1.77 on December 19. However, bulls stepped in to defend the area aggressively, putting off the sideways momentum.
However, should selling pressure continue to mount, the risk of losing the price level is not entirely off the table. A breach of the zone would see XRP fall towards the next crucial support level at $0.80, according to Martinez. The market analyst had identified this $0.79 support in an earlier analysis using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric.
If selling pressure continues, $XRP risks losing the $1.77 support.
A breakdown there opens the door to the next major support zone near $0.80.https://t.co/X3bw0d91XK
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) December 29, 2025
Interestingly, Martinez is only one of multiple analysts predicting further XRP corrections. For instance, Marcus Corvinus recently insisted that the bigger XRP picture remains bearish and lower prices would follow unless it sustains a channel breakout.
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