U.S. efforts to establish clear rules for crypto markets may take far longer than policymakers and industry participants once expected.
New analysis suggests passage could slip to 2027, with enforcement delayed until as late as 2029.
That outlook comes from TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, which closely tracks congressional policymaking. According to the firm, the primary obstacle is no longer technical readiness or drafting complexity, but rather political strategy.
Political Incentives Are Reshaping the Timeline
Although lawmakers still have a theoretical path to pass crypto market structure legislation this year, TD Cowen sees limited motivation to move quickly. Specifically, political calculations, particularly among Democrats, appear to favor delay.
TD Cowen Managing Director Jaret Seiberg said Democrats may prefer to wait. This is especially true if they believe the 2026 midterm elections could return control of the House to their party. In that case, postponement may offer greater leverage over both the substance and timing of enforcement.
Importantly, the slowdown is not due to a lack of preparation. Seiberg noted that congressional staff from both parties have spent months developing detailed legislative language. Consequently, that groundwork means the bill could move quickly if political incentives change.
Why a Later Deal May Be Easier
TD Cowen argues that delaying enactment could ease several contentious issues. One scenario envisions passage in 2027, followed by implementation in 2029.
Such a timeline would push enforcement beyond the next presidential inauguration, reducing the immediate political stakes tied to election outcomes. In theory, this could make compromise more achievable.
However, that approach would require trade-offs. Crypto firms would need to tolerate prolonged regulatory uncertainty, while Democrats would likely need to narrow or soften certain restrictions to secure agreement.
Conflict-of-Interest Rules Drive the Dispute
At the center of negotiations is a dispute over conflict-of-interest provisions. Specifically, Democrats are expected to insist on rules limiting cryptocurrency ownership or business involvement by senior government officials and their families.
According to Seiberg, President Donald Trump would fall squarely within the scope of such provisions. Consequently, TD Cowen said this language would likely face strong resistance from Trump unless enforcement were delayed.
Trump’s Crypto Links Add Complexity
Trump’s personal and family ties to crypto have intensified the debate. Bloomberg estimated last July that Trump-linked crypto ventures have generated roughly $620 million.
These include World Liberty Financial, a DeFi and stablecoin project that lists Trump and his three sons as co-founders. The family also holds a stake in Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin, and lawmakers have raised concerns about the TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins launched before Trump took office.
To break the impasse, Seiberg outlined a potential compromise: conflict-of-interest provisions could take effect three years after the bill becomes law.
Therefore, that delay would push enforcement past the next inauguration, effectively placing Trump beyond its reach. However, TD Cowen cautioned that Democrats would likely insist on a broader delay, pushing back the entire bill’s implementation timeline as well.
Where the Legislation Stands Now
The crypto market structure bill aims to define how digital assets are regulated in the United States, including the authority of regulatory agencies and the classification of digital assets. Moreover, it is widely viewed as the next major step after the GENIUS Act, which addressed stablecoins and included a three-year rollout period.
The House passed its version of the market structure bill last year. However, since then, momentum has slowed in the Senate. The bill faces a steep procedural hurdle: overcoming a filibuster would require 60 votes. Even with unanimous Republican support, at least seven Democrats would be needed—and TD Cowen said the actual number could be higher.
Some Republicans are also expected to oppose the bill, giving Democrats additional leverage to delay consideration.
Industry Priorities Clash With Political Strategy
The crypto industry would prefer the legislation to take effect during a Trump presidency and has shown little concern about conflict-of-interest restrictions. By contrast, Democrats may favor a later implementation that allows regulators aligned with their party to shape enforcement if a Democrat wins the White House.
Seiberg said this disconnect helps explain why negotiations remain difficult. While some policy experts have recently estimated a 50% to 60% chance that the bill would become law in 2026, TD Cowen’s analysis suggests even longer delays remain plausible.
Ultimately, the fate of U.S. crypto market rules hinges less on legislative readiness and more on political timing.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
