Bloomberg Warns Bitcoin Could Revisit the $50,000 Pivot in 2026, but Shares What May Stop It

A recent Bloomberg analysis warns that Bitcoin could crash to its yearly pivot of $50,000 in 2026 under certain macro conditions.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) changes hands at $91,525 after rebounding early in the year. However, this recovery has since lost momentum after Bitcoin surged to $94,741 on Jan. 5 and failed to hold that level.

While firms like Bernstein expect 2026 to mark a recovery year for Bitcoin after the turbulent close to 2025, Bloomberg Senior Strategist Mike McGlone has presented a reason to be cautious. His latest commentary suggests Bitcoin could still face downside pressure this year under certain macro conditions.

Bitcoin’s Historical Reactions to Stock Volatility

McGlone based his recent analysis on a long-term chart tracking Bitcoin’s yearly candle from 2014 through early 2026, alongside the S&P 500 Index and its 120-day volatility measure. 

Interestingly, the chart indicates that Bitcoin has historically delivered its strongest rallies during periods of low and stable equity market volatility. However, when stock volatility rises, Bitcoin tends to retrace toward long-term support levels.

Specifically, from 2014 through 2016, Bitcoin traded mostly between $200 and $600, forming an early base as equity volatility remained uneven. 

In 2017, Bitcoin broke out sharply, climbing close to $20,000 by December 2017 as stock market volatility declined. However, this relationship reversed in 2018, when a spike in volatility coincided with Bitcoin’s drop to roughly $3,336 by January 2019. 

Interestingly, the pattern repeated in the next cycle. For context, Bitcoin rose to a peak near $69,000 in November 2021 during calm market conditions, then fell to around $16,273 in December 2022 as volatility returned and risk appetite faded.

Bitcoin Could Revisit the $50,000 Yearly Pivot

Notably, Bitcoin recovered through 2023 and 2024, reclaiming the $50,000 level, which now stands out as a major structural pivot. By 2025, Bitcoin pushed above the $100,000 level, hitting a peak of $126,000 in October 2025, but Q4 2025 brought it back below $100,000.

At the same time, the S&P 500 volatility index dropped toward the 11 to 12 range, one of the lowest readings in decades. While volatility dropped, gold delivered its strongest relative performance in 2025 at the fastest pace since 1979, a move that often precedes broader market stress. 

McGlone argues that this setup carries historical risk. According to him, gold has never sustained such high prices while equity volatility remained this suppressed. McGlone sees this as a sign that markets may underestimate the risk involved heading into 2026. 

Considering these conditions, McGlone suggested that if volatility returns this year, BTC may correct further to revisit the $50,000 pivot. However, he noted that Bitcoin can avoid revisiting this level only if stock market volatility stays unusually low. It bears mentioning that McGlone also suggested BTC could revisit $50,000 last year.

Analysts Bullish Short-Term

Meanwhile, crypto analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. For instance, Lark Davis pointed out today that Bitcoin recently rejected resistance near $94,000, printing the first red daily candle of the year. He highlighted a 3% drop during the New York market open, when BTC fell from $94,300 to $91,200 in just three hours. 

The analyst also called attention to a quick 2% rebound after news that MSCI kept Strategy in its index, which pushed Bitcoin back toward $92,000. Davis said the market now watches whether Bitcoin can finally break above $94,000 or face another rejection during U.S. trading hours.

Emperor, another analyst, identified $94,000 to $95,000 as the most important resistance zone and expects a pullback toward $90,700–$91,000, where a high-volume node and the VWAP from the yearly open align. He stressed that Bitcoin must hold this level to keep short-term momentum intact.