Crypto analyst Dennis Liu says XRP at $1.25 could offer a better setup than the $1 bottom, as stronger market conditions reduce earlier uncertainty.
XRP investors who missed the move around $1 may not need to wait for a return to that level, according to crypto analyst Dennis Liu, known online as VirtualBacon.
If you missed XRP at the $1 bottom, $1.25 is a better bet than that bottom was.
Back then Bitcoin was near 60K and a bounce felt like maybe a 30% chance. With the bull run confirmed, I'd put it closer to 70%
— VirtualBacon (@virtualbacon) October 16, 2026
Liu argues that $1.25 could offer a more attractive entry setup because the broader market now shows stronger signs of recovery than it did when XRP was near $1.
That argument does not rest on $1.25 being cheaper. It is 25% above $1. Instead, the thesis is that paying a higher price after conditions improve can carry less uncertainty than buying at a deeper discount while the broader market is still under pressure.
Why the $1 XRP Level Carried More Uncertainty
Liu said XRP’s earlier move to around $1 came while Bitcoin was trading near $60,000. At that point, he estimated the chance of a meaningful rebound at only about 30%.
That 30% figure is not a statistically derived probability. It reflects Liu’s personal assessment of market conditions at the time.
His point is that the lower XRP price came with a weaker broader setup, making the apparent bargain more difficult to act on with confidence.
In Liu’s framework, Bitcoin’s broader trend is an important part of assessing the risk surrounding an XRP entry. A lower XRP price therefore does not necessarily represent the preferable setup if confidence in the wider crypto market is substantially weaker.
Why Liu Now Favors $1.25
Liu now places his subjective confidence in a rebound closer to 70%, citing what he views as confirmation of a broader bull run. On that basis, he considers $1.25 a better bet than the earlier $1 bottom.
The trade-off is straightforward. An investor buying XRP at $1.25 would give up the extra 25% discount available at $1 but would be entering after more evidence of market recovery has appeared.
That distinction is especially relevant with XRP currently trading around $1.30. CoinGecko data shows XRP near $1.30 on Oct. 17, with a 24-hour range of roughly $1.29 to $1.35.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading around $81,500, well above the roughly $60,000 area referenced by Liu.
At the current XRP price, $1.25 would represent a pullback of roughly 4%, while a return to $1 would require a decline of about 23%.
That makes $1.25 a nearby retracement level rather than a call to buy XRP at any price.
The $1.25 Thesis Still Has a Clear Condition
The case for preferring $1.25 over $1 depends on Liu’s bullish interpretation remaining intact. If Bitcoin and the broader crypto market weaken materially again, the additional confirmation supporting the higher entry would also weaken.
In other words, the argument is not that $1.25 is automatically safer because it is higher.
It is that a higher entry can be preferable when market conditions have improved enough to reduce uncertainty.
For investors who missed XRP near $1, Liu’s framework therefore identifies $1.25 as the level to watch on a pullback, provided the broader recovery remains in place.