XRP is approaching a support test that could preserve its developing bullish wave structure or force a deeper reset, potentially extending the recovery process by months.
The November 12 Coinbase hourly snapshot places XRP near $1.0334, following a decline beneath the $1.0860–$1.0912 Fibonacci support cluster. Attention now shifts to the psychological $1 level and the nearby $0.9855 retracement endpoint.
A successful defense of that area could keep the current subwave-two scenario intact. A deeper decline toward $0.90 would require reassessing the smaller wave structure, even if the broader bullish framework survives.
XRP Has Already Lost Its Fibonacci Support Cluster
Two separate retracement measurements converge near $1.09: the local 0.854 level at $1.0860 and the macro 0.786 level at $1.0912. XRP is already beneath both in the snapshot, making this a lost support area buyers need to reclaim.
Another local Fibonacci level sits higher at $1.1327, representing the 0.786 retracement of that separate measurement. Above it, $1.2483 aligns with the local 0.618 level and the former support band around $1.25.
The decline has therefore left XRP between the broken $1.09 cluster and the next major downside reference near $1. The Crypto Basic previously examined how the fair value gap extending toward $1 kept that psychological level in focus.
A Double Bottom Near $1 Could Preserve the Wave Scenario
The immediate bullish alternative allows XRP to revisit the previous low around $0.9855 and attempt a double-bottom formation near $1.
Within the Elliott Wave framework, that retest could complete subwave two—the corrective phase following an initial upward wave. Holding the earlier low and subsequently recovering would preserve the possibility that a new upward trend is still developing.
However, the double bottom remains a scenario. Reaching the same support area twice would not confirm the pattern without a sustained rebound and a break above the intervening recovery high.
From the $1.0334 reference price, $1 lies approximately 3.2% lower, while $0.9855 is roughly 4.6% below. These are nearby tests rather than distant downside projections.
A Move Toward $0.90 Would Require a Deeper Reset
A decline toward $0.90 would undercut the roughly $0.9855 reference low and disrupt the current smaller wave count.
Under this interpretation, XRP would need to establish a fresh initial upward wave and a subsequent corrective wave before the larger advance could develop. That rebuilding process could extend the timeline by months, although the wave structure provides no fixed duration for such a delay.
The deeper support area extends beyond the round $0.90 level. The macro 0.854 retracement sits at $0.8688, placing the broader zone around $0.87–$0.90. Separate coverage of XRP’s breakdown toward the $0.90 region has also highlighted the risk below $1.
The broader wave framework uses $0.77 as its macro invalidation level. Staying above that threshold would leave the proposed larger third-wave scenario open, including its speculative double-digit ambitions. It would not confirm those targets or establish a reliable timetable for reaching them.
RSI Divergence Offers an Early Signal
While price has continued making lower lows, the marked hourly RSI troughs have been rising. This developing bullish divergence suggests that downside momentum is weakening relative to the recent price decline.
The latest RSI reading is approximately 35.24, below its smoothing line near 40.27 and the neutral 50 level. Momentum has therefore improved relative to earlier extremes without establishing bullish control.
Holding the rising RSI support line would preserve the divergence. A break beneath it would weaken that signal.
Because this is an hourly setup, it can support a potential rebound without independently confirming a macro reversal.
$1.65 Remains the Broader Confirmation Threshold
The recovery sequence first requires XRP to reclaim $1.0860–$1.0912, followed by $1.1327 and the former support region near $1.2483.
The broader wave framework reserves stronger bottom confirmation for a sustained break above $1.65. That level sits approximately 59.7% above the snapshot price, illustrating the distance between an early momentum signal and a larger structural recovery.
For now, defending $1–$0.9855 would preserve the nearer-term bullish alternative. Losing that area would bring $0.90–$0.8688 into focus and increase the likelihood that XRP must rebuild its smaller wave structure before attempting a larger advance.