Crypto trading firm Rand Group recently highlighted a pattern that has appeared several times between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index.
According to the firm, whenever Bitcoin ended a year performing worse than the S&P 500, it usually bounced back strongly the following year. This has continued to play out since 2014.
Key Points
- Bitcoin historically rebounds after every yearly underperformance against the S&P 500.
- After underperforming in 2014, BTC gained 3,270% against the SPX from 2015 to 2017.
- Bitcoin dropped 19% against the S&P 500 last year, and analysts believe it could recover this year.
- Kalshi estimates a 15% chance that Bitcoin outperforms the S&P 500 in 2026, and the odds have continued to drop.
- Bitcoin is down 24.35% against the SPX this year, as investors flock to traditional markets.
Bitcoin Rebounds After Underperforming the S&P 500
Rand Group shared the observation in a post on X, calling attention to how Bitcoin recovered after major periods of weakness.
The firm noted that Bitcoin lagged behind the S&P 500 by 90-percentage points in 2014 before beating it by 68-percentage points in 2015. A similar move happened after 2018, when Bitcoin underperformed by 68-percentage points and then recovered by 58-percentage points in 2019.
The pattern played out again after the 2022 bear market, as Bitcoin fell behind the S&P 500 by 47-percentage points before bouncing back with a 130-percentage point lead in 2023.
Historical Data
Chart data confirms Rand Group’s claims. In January 2014, Bitcoin went through a difficult period and lost significant ground against the S&P 500. During that year, BTC fell 60.63% against the index as the crypto market struggled.
The following year brought a major turnaround. In 2015, Bitcoin recovered by 35% against the S&P 500. The recovery continued for the next three years, from 2015 to 2017, as Bitcoin consistently outperformed the index. During that period, Bitcoin gained 3,270% against the S&P 500.
However, the premier crypto asset faced another major drop during the 2018 bear market. As selling pressure spread across the crypto sector, Bitcoin fell 71% against the S&P 500 that year.
Following the decline, a recovery push appeared in the following year. In 2019, Bitcoin climbed 50.6% against the S&P 500. The cryptocurrency then continued to outperform the index between 2019 and 2021. Over those three years, Bitcoin recorded gains of 556% against the S&P 500.
Bitcoin Recovery After the Terra and FTX Implosions
The crypto market entered another difficult phase in 2022 after the implosions of Terra and FTX shook investor confidence. During this phase, Bitcoin dropped 55% against the S&P 500.
Still, Bitcoin managed to recover once again in the years that followed. Over the next two years, the asset gained 267% against the S&P 500. Bitcoin also reached a new all-time high against the index in 2025 and looked set to complete a third straight year of outperformance.
However, the streak came to an end after the market downturn that started in the fourth quarter of 2025. By the end of 2025, Bitcoin had fallen 19.5% against the S&P 500, unable to complete a third consecutive yearly gain for the first time.
Can Bitcoin Recover Against the S&P 500 in 2026?
Several industry leaders and firms, including Rand Group, now believe Bitcoin could recover against the S&P 500 again in 2026. Rand Group’s comments followed a statement from prediction market Kalshi, which estimated that Bitcoin had a 15% chance of outperforming the S&P 500 this year.
However, recent market data showed those odds continuing to weaken. Bitcoin has kept falling against the S&P 500 in 2026 and is already down 24.35% against the index this year. If the trend continues, Bitcoin could record its first-ever back-to-back yearly decline against the S&P 500.
The weakness comes as the crypto market continues to slow while traditional markets keep moving higher. Bitcoin has already dropped 16.89% against the U.S. dollar on a year-to-date basis. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gained 9.96% and recently reached a new all-time high of 7,539 points.
Current Weakness Could Create Opportunity
Speaking on the current situation, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, pointed out that the S&P 500 has continued to outperform Bitcoin along an uptrend line that started back in 2017.
The S&P 500 managed to outperform Bitcoin along the uptrend line that started in 2017.
Recently, the BTCUSD/S&P 500 ratio rejected or tested the lower part of this trendline.
In other words, market makers seem to be more attracted to equities than crypto right now.
But I see… pic.twitter.com/GiRhtW5grp
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 26, 2026
Wedson highlighted that the BTCUSD/S&P 500 ratio recently tested or rejected the lower part of that trendline. He believes market makers currently appear more interested in equities than cryptocurrencies.
Despite this, Wedson sees a possible opportunity in the current market conditions. According to him, Bitcoin’s weakness compared to stocks could allow investors to buy the cryptocurrency at relatively cheaper levels.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
