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Bitcoin Delivers 26,931% 10-Year Return, While Stocks Gain 193% and Gold 126%: Analysis

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Bitcoin has delivered an astonishing 26,931% return over the past decade, far surpassing the S&P 500’s 193.3% and gold’s 125.8%, despite its notable volatility.

A recent study shared by CoinGecko, an independent crypto data aggregator, highlights Bitcoin’s remarkable performance while examining its evolving correlation with the S&P 500, gold, and other major assets.

Despite its fluctuations, Bitcoin emerged as a top-performing asset, demonstrating significant growth, particularly during specific economic cycles.

Bitcoin Outpaces Other Assets

Over the last 10 years, Bitcoin has posted an extraordinary return of 26,931%, far outpacing traditional investment assets. A $100 investment in 2014 would now be worth over $26,900, emphasizing Bitcoin’s transformative growth.

In comparison, the S&P 500, a key equity benchmark, achieved a 193.3% return over the same period. Gold, widely regarded as a stable store of value, posted a 125.8% gain.

Treasuries also maintained relevance, with 5-year bonds delivering 157.1% returns and 10-year Treasuries returning 86.8%. In contrast, crude oil lagged significantly, offering a modest 4.3% return over the decade.

The year-to-date (YTD) data for 2024 reinforces Bitcoin’s dominance. It delivered 129.0% returns, followed by gold at 32.2%. The S&P 500 also showed strength, with 28.3% growth.

Bonds and crude oil offered comparatively weaker performance. While 5-year Treasuries provided 5.3%, and 10-year bonds delivered 8.2%, crude oil declined slightly by -0.13%.

Comparison of investments assets
Comparison of various investment instruments like Bitcoin | CoinGecko

Shifting Correlations with S&P 500 and Gold

Bitcoin’s relationship with the S&P 500 has evolved significantly over the years. Before 2018, its correlation with equity markets hovered near zero. However, this changed around 2020, particularly during global economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Bitcoin’s price began aligning more closely with stock market performance during these periods.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has remained inconsistent. While both assets are considered alternatives to traditional investments, their relationship often moves inversely.

When Bitcoin’s price rises, its correlation with gold tends to decline and vice versa. This pattern suggests that investors may shift toward gold when Bitcoin underperforms. Occasionally, brief periods of correlation emerge during macroeconomic uncertainties, signaling shared responses to market conditions.

Volatility and Cyclical Trends

Bitcoin’s extraordinary gains have come with significant volatility, marked by sharp price swings over the last decade. Historical data indicates two major bull cycles in 2017-2018 and 2020-2021, driven by Bitcoin’s halving events that occur every four years.

During these periods, Bitcoin prices surged to record highs before experiencing steep declines exceeding 70% of their peaks.

Bitcoin’s price range highlights this volatility. It has traded as low as $172.15 and peaked at $107,780. During this press, the crypto is trading at $107,440, a 3.67% rise in the past 24 hours.

EU Lawmaker Proposes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Citing El Salvador’s Success

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Sarah Knafo, a French member of the European Parliament, has urged the European Union to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

At the same time, she firmly opposes the proposed “digital euro,” a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

No to Digital Euro, Yes to Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

In a passionate speech delivered to the European Parliament, Knafo rejected the idea of the ECB’s digital euro, labeling it a tool for totalitarian control. Instead, she championed Bitcoin as a decentralized, freedom-affirming alternative. 

“No to the digital euro, yes to a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” Knafo wrote on X (formerly Twitter), accompanied by a video of her address.

Sarah calling for Bitcoin reserve
Sarah Knafo calling for Bitcoin reserve

Learning from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Adoption

In her speech, Knafo highlighted the success of El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele made the controversial decision to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021.

At the time, critics, including the political class and the IMF, ridiculed the move. However, El Salvador’s bet on Bitcoin has paid off, showing over 100% return and providing hundreds of millions of dollars in security and sovereignty for the country.

Furthermore, Knafo pointed to growing global interest in Bitcoin, noting that influential figures such as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are positioning themselves to take advantage of the cryptocurrency revolution.

Powell has referred to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” and the U.S. is exploring the possibility of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Europe Falling Behind on Crypto Innovation

Meanwhile, Knafo criticized the European Union for lagging behind in cryptocurrency adoption. She lamented that the EU continues to waste public funds, struggle with inflation, and stifle innovation through excessive regulation and taxation.

In her speech, Knafo called for a paradigm shift in Europe, urging EU states to protect their citizens from inflation and the consequences of poor economic policies. 

She particularly warned against the ECB’s push for a fully controlled digital euro, fearing it could lead to a dystopian future where citizens are excluded from the financial system for expressing dissent or engaging in unpopular activities.

Call to Develop Crypto Mining Industries In Europe

Furthermore, Knafo emphasized the need for European nations to follow El Salvador’s lead in building strategic Bitcoin reserves and developing local crypto mining industries.

She pointed out that France, in particular, has the advantage of abundant nuclear energy, which could power a thriving cryptocurrency mining sector. Knafo further urged policymakers to reduce the tax burden on cryptocurrency holders.

In conclusion, Knafo called for a return to the values of freedom and innovation, advocating for a future where Europe embraces cryptocurrencies as a means of economic independence and protection from inflation.

“Let’s dare to be free,” she concluded, “and stay true to the ambition of our civilization.”

Notably, the discussion around a strategic Bitcoin reserve has gained momentum since President-elect Donald Trump teased the idea at the latest Bitcoin Conference. Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill to this end, and lawmakers in states like Texas and Pennsylvania have presented the idea. Russian lawmakers are also considering the possibility.

XRP Critic Peter Brandt Predicts XRP to $4.6, Citing Half-Mast Flag Pattern  

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Veteran trader and XRP critic Peter Brandt is expecting an XRP upsurge to a new all-time high, citing a half-mast flag pattern on the daily charts.

Peter Brandt, a long-time XRP critic, is now bullish. Following XRP’s strong rally in November, Brandt suggests the asset is forming a half-mast flag pattern. This continuation structure points to a potential price surge, with Brandt forecasting a move toward $4.6.  

XRP Forms a Half-Mast Flag Pattern

In his recent analysis, Brandt discussed the half-mast flag structure on XRP’s daily chart. Notably, this pattern occurred during XRP’s strong uptrend from late November.

Particularly, following a six-day consolidation that began on Nov. 23, XRP eventually staged a breakout on Nov. 27, rallying from the $1.5 level to a new seven-year peak of $2.9 by Dec. 3. This impressive upsurge created the flagpole. 

Following this move, XRP entered a brief consolidation phase in December as it faced resistance at the $2.9 level. Price action formed a descending channel, which featured lower highs and lower lows and formed the flag. Notably, this flag represents a period where traders pause to assess the market direction.  

XRP Half Mast Flag Pattern Peter Brandt
XRP Half Mast Flag Pattern Peter Brandt

Interestingly, XRP broke out above the upper boundary of the flag on Dec. 14 after it closed the day around the $2.4 level. This breakout signals the potential continuation of the original uptrend. Since then, the asset has stayed above the boundary, looking to establish it as support.

According to Brandt, the half-mast flag pattern predicts that the next upward move will mirror the height of the flagpole. Notably, the flagpole height, measured from the rally’s starting point at $1.50 to its peak of $2.9 represents a 93% upsurge.

This rate becomes the basis for XRP’s next move. For context, XRP’s breakout occurred around the $2.4 region on Dec. 14. If the altcoin replicates the 93% rally from the $2.4 level, this will lead to a price of $4.63 for XRP, marking a new all-time high.  

What’s Next for XRP?

However, for XRP to achieve this bullish target, it must maintain the breakout above $2.4. This level, which previously acted as resistance, now serves as a major support zone. A retest of this level without falling back inside the flag would confirm the breakout’s strength.  

If momentum continues, XRP’s next resistance lies around $2.9, the previous high from the November rally. Clearing this level would open the door for a surge to $4.63. However, a failed breakout, where XRP drops back below $2.4, could invalidate the flag pattern and delay further upside.  

Interestingly, another analyst CryptoInsightUK recently suggested that XRP could trade at $5 by Christmas day. Analyst Ali Martinez also insists a rally above $4 is a certainty. XRP currently changes hands at $2.66, up 11.59% in the past 24 hours amid the launch of Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD. 

XRP to $4 is Programmed if It Overcomes This Hurdle, Analyst Says

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A market expert believes XRP has the potential to breach its 2021 all-time high if it can clear a major technical hurdle.

Over the past few weeks, XRP has stolen the crypto spotlight, mounting a blistering 300% price surge to seven-year highs. But this rally now appears to be slowing, raising the question of whether the asset can continue.

One prominent analyst has suggested that the answer is in the affirmative, but the asset has at least one hurdle to overcome first.

XRP to $4?

Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that XRP’s price still has room to grow. In an X post on Tuesday, December 17, the analyst asserted that the asset was heading toward the $4 price point, representing an over 50% increase from current prices of around $2.6.

However, according to Martinez, there is one condition for this trajectory to be confirmed: XRP has to break the price resistance at $2.6.

As highlighted in the four-hour candle chart shared by the analyst, the price level has served as a wall to XRP’s price in the past week after it broke out a bull flag pattern it entered after surging to $2.9 on December 3.

XRP/USDT 4-hour candle chart
XRP/USDT 4-hour candle chart. Source: Ali Martinez

Interestingly, XRP whales may already be mustering the demand needed to break this wall.

XRP Whales Load Up

Amid XRP’s recent price correction, whales are loading up. On Monday, December 16, Ali Martinez shared Santiment Feed data suggesting that this class of investors had purchased a staggering 830 million XRP worth nearly $2.2 billion in the past 24 hours.

Santiment Feed chart showing XRP whale holdings
Santiment Feed chart showing XRP whale holdings. Source: Ali Martinez

The purchases appear to line up with Ripple’s announcement of the Tuesday, December 17 launch of RLUSD. The stablecoin has been tipped to bolster liquidity and DeFi activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) in what many see as a likely boon to XRP’s price.

Record Bitcoin Demand Fueling Current Price Rally, Says CryptoQuant Head of Research

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The CryptoQuant Research Head says an unprecedented rate of demand is responsible for the recent Bitcoin rally.

By every measure, Bitcoin has had a landmark year in 2024. Still, the asset shows no signs of slowing down, with its price continuing to record high after high. Recently, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has offered insight into what is driving the latest rally.

Bitcoin Seeing Record Demand

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has surged to new highs near the $108,000 price point, extending its year-to-date (YTD) gains to over 150%. According to Moreno, the recent rally, which kicked off over the weekend, is driven by record demand outpacing supply.

As an example, Moreno highlighted that Bitcoin over-the-counter desks are seeing their most significant monthly balance decline this year, already down a staggering 25,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion at current prices this month. The market researcher also noted that this balance had declined by 40,000 BTC since November 20.

Charts showing Bitcoin supply on OTC desks and apparent demand
Charts showing Bitcoin supply on OTC desks and apparent demand. Source: Julio Moreno

Meanwhile, as this supply reduces, demand continues to grow, as highlighted by the Bitcoin ‘Apparent Demand’ indicator chart shared by Moreno. 

The apparent demand indicator measures the difference between newly issued Bitcoin and the inactive supply for a year. When inactive supply decreases faster than the newly issued coins, the metric turns positive, suggesting high demand. Per the chart, the apparent demand indicator has been significantly positive since the end of October 2024.

The recent trend of Bitcoin demand outpacing supply comes as several factors have investors feeling significantly optimistic about the asset.

Stars Aligning for Bitcoin?

One factor investors are considering is Donald Trump’s election victory. On the campaign trail, the President-elect sounded extremely supportive of crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, promising to establish a strategic national reserve—a move some market observers expect to drive a global rush on the asset.

At the same time, macroeconomic winds are increasingly shifting in Bitcoin’s favor. Several central banks have kicked off quantitative easing efforts with interest rate reductions, making capital more accessible for speculative investments.

Experts Say XRP Current Setup is Far More Bullish Than a Drop to $0.50

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Notable market analysts continue to emphasize that XRP remains in a strong uptrend, countering views that suggest a potential breakdown to $0.5.

In a post on X, analyst Dom discussed XRP from a higher time frame perspective, sharing a historical chart highlighting its peak rallies in the last two market cycles. According to Dom, the chart formation indicates that the asset “wants higher.”

XRP Current Setup Is “Far More Bullish”

Dom noted that XRP’s current structure is different from its past peaks. He pointed out that in the 2017/2018 cycle, XRP had ten daily closes above $2 before reaching its all-time high, while in the 2020/2021 cycle, there were no closes above $2 before the peak.

In contrast, Dom believes the current pattern suggests a higher value for XRP, as it has already seen 13 daily closes above $2. With XRP’s ongoing consolidation in the $2 range, Dom urged holders to remain patient, suggesting there’s still more room for upside potential.

Image
XRP chart by Dom

Commenting on the analysis, technical analyst “Chating Guy” pointed out that some market observers have drawn bearish conclusions from XRP’s historical patterns. However, he argued that anyone with a basic understanding of technical analysis would recognize that XRP’s current pattern is “far more bullish” than the possibility of a drop to $0.50, as some critics have suggested.

The Foundation Behind Calls for a $0.50 XRP Crash

Critics who predict a bearish outcome for XRP often focus on the trend of lower lows following the asset’s previous peaks in 2018 and 2021.

For instance, after XRP hit $3.84 in January 2018, it fell to $1 within two weeks. By February of that year, it was trading below $1. Similarly, after reaching $1.96 in April 2021, XRP traded around $0.80 just four weeks later.

Based on this historical trend, critics have warned market participants to take profits and exit the XRP market, with some projecting a crash to $0.50. However, this scenario has yet to materialize. Even though XRP lost some momentum after reaching $2.865 two weeks ago, it has remained in the $2 range.

XRP Bull Run Gaining Momentum

At press time, XRP is experiencing a renewed surge, gaining over 14% today and trading at $2.71. Analysts believe that once the bull run picks up, XRP could rise to $4.50 before losing momentum again.

Cardano Risks Crashing Below $1 as Bearish Momentum Grows: Can ADA Make a Comeback?

The recent Cardano decline threatens its $1 support level within a falling channel pattern. Will a breakdown send the ADA price crashing to $0.94?

Despite a broader market recovery, Cardano is facing a constant bearish sentiment. This growing bearish pressure puts the $1 psychological mark at risk and signals the possibility of an extended correction.

Will the slowdown in bullish momentum lead to a crash for Cardano? The local support trend line, however, suggests a different outcome.

Cardano Price Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, Cardano’s price trend shows a lower-high formation despite the bullish trends in Bitcoin and other top altcoins. Due to bullish exhaustion, Cardano’s price faces resistance at a trend line, which has kept its upward momentum in check.

CRYPTO:ADAUSD Chart Image by Trojan69420

The ADA token is currently trading at $1.0625 as it pulls back from the overhead trend line. The bearish retracement has broken below the 38.20% Fibonacci level at $1.0826, and the negative cycle is moving closer to the 23.60% Fibonacci level at $1.0316.

Two crucial support trend lines are forming a falling channel pattern on the 4-hour chart. Despite the bearish trend, the 4-hour RSI indicates an underlying bullish divergence. If Cardano manages to hold above the $1 psychological mark, it could increase the chances of a bullish reversal.

Falling Social Volume

As downside risks increase, social sentiment surrounding Cardano is turning bearish. Analyst Ali Martinez recently pointed out the declining social volumes for Cardano.

With the total weighted sentiment dropping to -0.786, social volumes have fallen to 206. Martinez described the decline as “just the kind of setup bullish contrarians dream of!”

Ali comment on Cardano
Ali comment on Cardano

ADA Price Targets

Based on the current price trend, Cardano will likely test the 23.60% Fibonacci level before attempting a bullish reversal. The price must break above the overhead trend line for an extended rally.

In the event of a breakout rally, the upside targets are the 78.60% and 100% Fibonacci levels, at $1.2239 and $1.2987, respectively. If the bearish trend extends, the key support levels below $1 are $0.9491 and $0.8746.

CyberKongz Promises to Fight for NFT Industry After Receiving SEC Wells Notice

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The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could be planning to bring an enforcement action against popular NFT collection CyberKongz. 

According to an announcement, the development comes as the securities regulator issued a Wells Notice to the project. 

A Wells Notice is a form of communication the SEC issues to companies following an investigation, hinting that it may recommend an enforcement action against the recipient. 

CyberKongz Highlights SEC Misunderstanding of Blockchain 

According to the post, CyberKongz expressed disappointment with the development, noting that it has suffered in silence since the SEC launched its investigation in 2022. 

The project emphasized that the SEC demonstrated a lack of understanding of blockchain, which resulted in inaccurate information and unjust accusations. 

Specifically, the SEC claimed that CyberKongz should have registered with the agency for having a blockchain game alongside an ERC-20 token. Additionally, CyberKongz revealed the SEC misinterpreted its contract migration for Genesis Kong NFTs in April 2021 for a token sale. 

“If they cannot distinguish between a primary sale and a contract migration, what hope do we currently have for a clear regulatory pathway going forward?” CyberKongz quizzed. 

CyberKongz to Fight for the NFT Industry 

Interestingly, CyberKongz plans to defend itself should the SEC decide to file a lawsuit. It promised to fight for regulatory clarity for the NFT sector, irrespective of its small team and limited resources. 

Furthermore, the project called out the current administration for attempting to push its anti-crypto agenda in its last days in office. It expressed hope for more favorable policies under the forthcoming administration. 

CyberKongz stands in solidarity with other crypto stakeholders embroiled in similar battles, including Coinbase Co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong and Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams. 

SEC Aggressive Stance Against Cryptos Could Change Soon

For context, the Gary Gensler-led SEC has been aggressive against cryptos, filing different charges against crypto businesses. This stringent action has also extended to the NFT sector, with projects like Stoner Cats 2 LLC and Impact Theory victimized. 

While Stoner Cats 2 and Impact Theory have settled with the SEC, some crypto businesses are still engaged in litigation against the regulator. With Gensler expected to resign on January 20, the fate of other ongoing lawsuits remains uncertain. 

In the meantime, several enthusiasts speculate that the SEC might settle most of the non-fraud crypto-related lawsuits once Paul Atkins, who was recently nominated as SEC Chair, assumes office. Atkins is a pro-crypto advocate and is expected to introduce transparent and fair policies for the sector.  

SEC Wells Notice Against Crypto Firms 

Meanwhile, CyberKongz is not the only crypto project that has received a Wells Notice from the U.S. SEC. Last month, the securities agency slapped the NFT project Immutable with a Wells Notice, causing the project’s native token IMX to plunge by 13%. 

It also issued a Wells Notice to Ethereum developer Consensys earlier this year. The agency subsequently filed a lawsuit against the company, alleging that Consensys violated federal securities laws via its staking service and operated as an unregistered broker-dealer. Notably, Consensys also filed a lawsuit against the SEC, which a Texas court later dismissed in September. 

Other crypto-related recipients of the SEC Wells Notice include Coinbase in March 2023, Uniswap in April 2024, Robinhood in May 2024, and Crypto.com in August 2024.

While the regulator has officially charged Coinbase with operating as an unregistered broker-dealer in the U.S., it has yet to sue Uniswap and Robinhood. Meanwhile, Crypto.com sued the SEC in October 2024 to prevent future enforcement action from the regulator. 

All Eyes on $110,730 After Bitcoin Sets New ATH of $107K

After Bitcoin crosses the $107,000 barrier and sets a new all-time high, will the bull cycle reach $110K in 2024?

With a new all-time high, Bitcoin is maintaining dominance above the $106,000 level. The overnight surge marks a bullish breakout, pushing the total crypto market cap to $3.73 trillion.

Will this bullish breakout lead to an extended rally to $110,000 for Bitcoin before the end of 2024? Let’s explore it.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, BTC price action shows a bullish breakout from a rising channel pattern. This breakout signals strong buyer momentum, creating a new all-time high of $107,821 and achieving the inverted head-and-shoulders breakout target.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Chart Image by Trojan69420

However, the bull run is struggling to find a close above the 50% Fibonacci level at $106,912. This level remains a critical resistance point for BTC, acting as a hurdle for further price growth.

The MACD and signal lines remain in positive alignment, supporting the possibility of an upside move. This bullish alignment reflects increasing buyer interest.

Institutional Buying Boosts Momentum

The ongoing buying spree among top institutions continues to gain momentum despite the relatively slower growth in Bitcoin’s price.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net daily inflow of $636.85 million, with BlackRock remaining the top purchaser, contributing $418.16 million. Fidelity follows with an inflow of $116.06 million. This highlights the growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Institutions have now accumulated $120.71 billion worth of Bitcoin, accounting for 5.76% of its market cap. This underscores the significant role institutions are playing in driving demand for Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin yesterday. The development contributed to Bitcon’s run to $107K yesterday.

BTC Price Targets

BTC’s price action shows a post-retest reversal, gaining momentum from the broken exchange trendline.

If BTC manages to close strongly above the 50% Fibonacci level, bulls are eyeing a rally to $110,730, which aligns with the 67.80% Fibonacci level. A breakout above this level could pave the way for even higher targets, potentially continuing the uptrend.

On the flip side, a bearish reversal could test the 38.20% Fibonacci level at $103,093.

Ethereum Supply Distribution Suggests Long-Term Bullish Signal: Santiment

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Market intelligence platform Santiment suggests Ethereum’s institution-dominated supply distribution spells long-term bullish sentiments for the asset.

Supply distribution is a crucial tokenomics element for cryptocurrencies. For context, the more evenly distributed an asset is, the less impact its price will suffer from whale selloffs.

However, this reality changes when institutions enter the game. A crypto asset with more institutional adoption has long-term security and higher chances of continued uptrends.

On this front, data from Santiment has revealed a bullish supply distribution for Ethereum. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has over 57% of its supply locked among institutions, a long-term bullish narrative for the altcoin king.

Ethereum Whale Holdings Hit All-Time High

In a Tuesday tweet, Santiment shared that an exclusive caliber of Ethereum whales has amassed an unprecedented amount of the asset’s supply. Per the data, wallets holding at least 100,000 ETH now command a staggering 57.35% of Ethereum’s supply.

Consequently, the balances of other Ethereum holders have depreciated considerably. The market intelligence platform pointed out that whales holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH have dropped to their lowest-ever supply control.

The whales now hold just 33.46%, losing market share to large high-caliber holders. Meanwhile, retail Ethereum wallets – addresses with less than 100 ETH – have reached a multi-year low. The faction of Ethereum holders now commands just 9.19% of the asset’s supply, their lowest since January 2021.

Ethereum Supply Distribution

Santiment Shares Market Implication

Following the disclosure, Santiment buttressed the market implications of the distribution shift. The platform noted that the increased stash among high-caliber whales is a long-term bullish signal.

Santiment acknowledged that staking platforms and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols control a large portion of Ethereum’s supply. As a result, their continued accumulation suggests that they are locking away more of the asset.

Notably, this growing accumulation could create a shock if demand increases. Consequently, a demand shock will spur price upticks, favoring Ethereum investors.

Meanwhile, Ethereum has regained bullish momentum amidst sustained inflows from its US spot ETFs. The altcoin king has reclaimed the $4,000 price mark after an 8% weekly uptick.

At press time, Ethereum trades at $4,024 with a market cap of $484 billion.