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XRP Crashes to $1.18: Why the Chart Says Bears Are Not Done Yet

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XRP has fallen to $1.18 after breaking an important support level on the 4-hour chart, raising concerns about further sell-offs.

XRP recently closed below the $1.2355 swing low, confirming a break of structure (BoS). This move also extended the pattern of lower highs and lower lows that started at the $1.3414 swing high.

With several resistance levels now standing above the current price, the chart suggests that sellers could remain in control unless XRP manages to recover these levels.

At the time of the analysis, XRP traded at $1.18202, down 1.85% on the session. Its intraday low had already reached $1.17668, bringing the price close to the $1.1800 level. The breakdown followed several weeks of declining price action and confirmed that sellers had gained control of the 4-hour timeframe.

XRP Breaks Below $1.23

XRP’s latest decline comes amid a broader selloff across the crypto market. The token recorded a 17% drop in a single session, its sharpest one-day decline since 2025. It also fell below $1.25, taking its weekly losses to nearly 30%.

The selloff has reduced XRP’s market cap to $75 billion, compared with its peak of $210 billion in July 2025. The decline in both price and market value makes a recovery more difficult, especially as the chart continues to show signs of weakness. 

XRP suffers bearish break of structure amid crash to $1.18
XRP suffers bearish break of structure amid crash to $1.18

On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP closed below the $1.2355 swing low just two bars before the analysis, confirming the latest break of structure. This move confirmed the pattern of lower highs and lower lows that developed after the $1.3414 swing high.

Why $1.2355 Has Become an Important Resistance Level

The break below $1.2355 has changed how traders may view this price level. It previously acted as support, but XRP’s close below it has turned it into potential resistance. 

Traders who bought around this level are now sitting on losses. If the price returns to $1.2355, some may use the opportunity to exit their positions, adding more selling pressure.

The breakdown also pushed XRP below the lower volatility band at $1.2186. This places the token in band-extended territory, which means selling has moved beyond its normal statistical range. Such conditions can lead to a temporary recovery toward the average price before the broader decline continues.

The STC indicator also provides more information about the current 4-hour structure. Its recorded plot values are 1.29555, 1.21724, 1.25640, 1.26861, 1.34000, and 1.23393. 

The Last HH reading of 1.34000 marks the previous structural high, while the Last LL value of 1.23393 identifies the broken support area behind the latest BoS. This reading is close to $1.2355, which now stands as an important resistance level.

XRP Faces More Resistance

XRP also faces resistance from two major moving averages. The 21-period exponential moving average (EMA21) currently sits at $1.2578, while the 55-period exponential moving average (EMA55) stands at $1.2703. 

Both averages are moving downward, with EMA21 below EMA55. This indicates a bearish trend and suggests that any recovery could face selling pressure at both levels.

The latest 4-hour candle also shows how difficult it has been for buyers to push the price higher. XRP opened at $1.20357 but only reached $1.20592 before sellers stepped in again. This suggests that buyers are struggling to overcome the selling pressure above the current price.

The previous swing high at $1.3414, which remained intact ten bars before the analysis, further confirms the bearish outlook. 

With EMA21 at $1.2578 and EMA55 at $1.2703, XRP must overcome several resistance levels before it can build a stronger recovery. The gap between the current price and these moving averages also gives sellers room to maintain pressure during any upward move.

A Short-Term Recovery Could Give Sellers Another Chance

XRP could still recover temporarily because its price has fallen below the lower volatility band. A move toward EMA21 at $1.2578 is possible, with the $1.2355 area also serving as an important level to watch. However, the way XRP reacts around these prices could determine whether buyers regain some control or sellers push the price lower again.

A rejection around this zone would strengthen the bearish outlook. This could happen if XRP forms a long upper wick and then fails to hold its gains. Such a move would show that sellers remain active around resistance and could use the recovery to put more pressure on the price.

Until XRP closes above this resistance area, the 4-hour chart continues to favor sellers. 

$1.12 Becomes the Next Downside Target

Meanwhile, the first level sellers need to break is $1.1800, which is close to XRP’s current price of $1.18202 and its intraday low of $1.17668. If the token falls below this area, the next level to watch is $1.1500. This round-number price could offer some support as the decline continues.

A further break below $1.1500 would bring $1.1200 into focus. This is the next downside target if selling pressure increases and buyers fail to defend the levels above it.

However, the bearish outlook has a clear invalidation level. A 4-hour candle close above EMA55 at $1.2703 would weaken the current setup and signal that sellers have failed to maintain control. 

Such a move would suggest that buyers have absorbed the recent breakdown and are pushing the price back above a major resistance level.

Here’s How Low XRP Could Fall If the Market Keeps Crashing

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The crypto market’s decline continues, with XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum reaching important levels amid the persistent selling pressure. 

XRP has fallen to a press-time low of $1.16, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are also struggling to hold important levels. As the market correction continues, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has predicted how much further the three assets could fall if buyers fail to defend key support areas.

Specifically, XRP remains within a long-term parallel channel that has guided its price movements for most of 2026. Bitcoin faces a major test around $73,000, while Ethereum has already broken below an important chart pattern, putting $1,963 in focus as a possible downside target.

XRP Parallel Channel Points to $0.99

After reaching $2.41 in January 2026, XRP entered a prolonged decline that resulted in five straight weekly losses between early January and early February, collapsing alongside Bitcoin. 

By the week ending Feb. 8, XRP had fallen below $1.61, losing the upper boundary of a parallel channel that would continue to dictate its price movements for the rest of the year.

The channel has three important levels: an upper boundary at $1.61, a middle range around $1.29, and a lower support area at $0.99. These levels have helped define XRP’s movements and provide a way to assess its position within the broader trend.

After falling into the channel, XRP found support around $1.29 as Bitcoin stabilized, and held that level for four months. During this period, the $1.61 upper boundary continued to limit its recovery attempts, keeping the token within a relatively narrow range. 

However, this trend changed in June when sellers pushed XRP below $1.29, sending it into the lower half of the channel. 

The decline continued for several weeks, with XRP eventually reaching $0.98 in mid-August. This marked its lowest price within the channel, as selling pressure increased after the token lost the $1.29 support level.

XRP Recovery Fails as Price Falls Below $1.29

XRP later recovered from its August low, with buyers pushing the price back above $1.29. The recovery gained enough strength for the price to reach $1.69, briefly testing the channel’s upper boundary. However, the rally lost momentum, and XRP pulled back below $1.61.

Despite this setback, the token remained above $1.29 for some time, allowing it to hold within the upper half of the channel. This period of stability eventually ended in October when sellers returned and pushed the price lower.

XRP drops to the lower end of a parallel channel as Bitcoin and the crypto market declines
XRP drops to the lower end of a parallel channel as Bitcoin and the crypto market declines

During the week ending Oct. 25, XRP fell below the $1.29 mid-range level for the first time since its August crash. Buyers attempted to recover the level over the following days, but renewed selling quickly reversed those gains. XRP has since dropped to $1.16, now placing it in the lower section of the channel.

This decline has made the $0.99 lower boundary the next important level to watch. If XRP falls to that price and fails to find support, it could drop below $1 for the first time since August.

Bitcoin Could Fall Toward $60,000

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also showing signs of weakness on its three-day chart, where the asset continues to trade within a parallel channel. 

According to Martinez, the main level to watch is the middle of the channel, around $73,000. How Bitcoin reacts at this level could determine whether the current decline remains limited or develops into a deeper correction.

Bitcoin bears now eyeing the mid-range area of around $73K with $60K next to target
Bitcoin bears now eyeing the mid-range area of around $73K with $60K next to target

If sellers push Bitcoin below $73,000 and buyers fail to recover that level, the channel’s lower boundary near $60,000 could become the next downside target. Such a move would extend the current market decline and could put additional pressure on other crypto assets.

Bitcoin’s performance is important to the broader market because further losses could increase selling pressure across the sector. This could make it harder for XRP and other major assets to recover.

Ethereum Breakdown Opens the Door to $1,963

Ethereum has suffered the clearest damage among the three assets. Its daily chart shows a breakdown below a right-angled ascending broadening pattern.

The token has also lost its $2,385 support level. With buyers failing to defend this price area, Ethereum has lost an important level that previously helped limit its decline. As a result, attention has moved toward lower support areas.

Ethereum breaks below right-angled ascending broadening pattern
Ethereum breaks below right-angled ascending broadening pattern

Based on the chart pattern, Ethereum could fall toward $1,963 if selling pressure continues. This is the next major downside target identified by Martinez and reflects the potential losses the token could face after breaking below $2,385.

TCB Daily Edition: What Happened in Crypto on November 6, 2026

Zcash activated a major network upgrade, Aave Labs announced an acquisition, and Binance outlined another stage of its withdrawal recovery. Today’s roundup covers ten announcements and new disclosures from November 6, including Bitcoin treasury results, blockchain development plans and institutional tokenization.

Zcash Activates NU7 With Faster Target Block Times

Zcash’s NU7 upgrade went live on November 6, reducing the network’s target interval between blocks from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. The upgrade also reserves 60% of transaction fees for future mining rewards, while miners receive the remaining 40% immediately. It retires the original Sprout privacy pool, leaving funds still held there unspendable under the new rules.

Binance Announces Another Batch of Withdrawal Restorations

Binance’s ninth recovery update scheduled additional withdrawals to resume in stages from 04:00 UTC on November 6. The announcement covers selected assets across nine networks, including ETH on Optimism, MORPHO on Base and FDUSD on Sui. Binance said each asset-and-network combination would reopen after security checks, with availability confirmed through its withdrawal interface or network-status page.

Aave Labs Acquires Avon to Develop Fixed-Rate Lending

Aave Labs announced the acquisition of Avon’s personnel and lending technology as it prepares to expand its fixed-rate borrowing capabilities. The transaction includes protocols supporting fixed and floating interest rates, an onchain order book and related assets, with Avon team members joining Aave’s engineering and business development operations. The companies did not disclose the purchase price.

Strive Reports $509 Million Profit Driven by Bitcoin Revaluation

Strive disclosed third-quarter net income of $509 million, with its results including $533.7 million in unrealized gains on digital assets. The company acquired 8,136 BTC during the quarter, finishing September with 28,000 BTC. It also reported purchases of another 15,124 BTC during October, taking its holdings to 43,124 BTC.

Immutable Plans Move to an Ethereum Rollup in 2027

Immutable announced plans to migrate its gaming blockchain to the OP Stack around mid-2027, turning Immutable Chain into an Ethereum rollup. The proposed upgrade would shorten block times from two seconds to one second while preserving existing accounts, balances and contracts. Native withdrawals would take approximately seven days, although the company expects faster liquidity bridges to remain available.

TeraWulf’s Mining Revenue Falls as Computing Leases Expand

TeraWulf’s third-quarter report showed Bitcoin mining revenue of $13.2 million, down approximately 69% from $43.4 million a year earlier. High-performance computing leases generated $63 million, accounting for roughly 83% of the company’s $76.2 million in total revenue. The company nevertheless recorded an operating loss of $88.2 million for the quarter.

Jupiter Adds Combined Predictions to Its Solana Platform

Jupiter launched Combos, a feature that allows users to combine several predicted outcomes into one position through Jupiter Predict. The initial rollout supports sports and esports markets, including selections based on winners, point spreads and totals. Every selection must succeed for the position to pay out, and users cannot sell a Combo after placing it.

Hypercall Sets November 9 Launch for Anthropic-Linked Options

Hypercall announced that options linked to Anthropic’s pre-IPO market will begin trading on November 9 at 8 a.m. Eastern Time. Built on Hyperliquid, the service will support calls, puts and multi-leg strategies, with trading available around the clock. The contracts will settle in cash and provide synthetic exposure without granting Anthropic shares, IPO allocations or ownership rights.

CertiK, V Systems and ZICO Announce Tokenization Collaboration

CertiK announced a memorandum of understanding with V Systems and Malaysian law firm Zaid Ibrahim & Co. to help financial institutions develop tokenized products across Greater China and Southeast Asia. The proposed collaboration brings together V Systems’ blockchain infrastructure, CertiK’s security assessments and ZICO’s legal expertise. The partners identified cross-border deployment and Islamic finance among the opportunities they intend to pursue.

U.S. Jobs Report Exceeds Forecasts as Bitcoin Trades Near $75,800

The U.S. employment report released on November 6 showed 165,000 jobs added in October, exceeding the 65,000 forecast cited by CoinDesk. Unemployment edged down to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.4% from September. Bitcoin traded near $75,800 shortly after the release, as the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasuries moved higher.

Here’s the Level That Could End Current XRP Pullback or Lead to Deeper Declines

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XRP is getting closer to an important level on its weekly chart that could determine whether its current pullback comes to an end or leads to further losses. 

The crypto asset opened the week at $1.2493 and briefly reached $1.3393 before sellers pushed the price lower. XRP fell from around $1.32 at 9 AM on Thursday, Nov. 5, to $1.1761 by 7 AM on Friday, Nov. 6. This represented an 11% drop in less than 24 hours.

The decline followed the Democrats’ victory in the U.S. House, which triggered selling across the broader crypto market. With XRP trading around $1.1981, a major trendline now sits just 7.3% below its current price.

A Market Under Pressure

XRP’s latest decline came as the broader crypto market also faced heavy selling. The total crypto market cap dropped 5.4% in 24 hours to around $2.54 trillion, as Bitcoin fell to $75,551.

Institutional investment products also recorded significant withdrawals, with ETF outflows approaching $530 million. At the same time, total crypto liquidations exceeded $1.08 billion on Thursday, including approximately $954 million in long positions.

The political situation contributed to the bearish sentiment. The U.S. Senate had already failed to advance the CLARITY Act following a narrow vote. With the Democrats now holding a majority in the House, the proposed market structure law faces greater challenges.

This has weakened expectations for regulatory clarity in the near term, leaving investors with more uncertainty about the rules that will govern the crypto industry.

What the XRP Weekly Chart Shows

XRP’s weekly chart explains why the current price level is important. After reaching its all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025, the crypto began trading inside a descending channel that guided its price movement for more than a year.

XRPUSD 2026 11 06 10 20 54

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from that high show several important price points along the decline. These include $2.6975 at the 0.236 level, $2.3809 at 0.33, $1.8997 at the 0.5 midpoint, $1.6241 at 0.618, and $1.2993 at 0.786. XRP has already fallen below the $1.2993 level.

The descending channel eventually lost its hold on XRP’s price in August 2026. During the week ending Aug. 23, XRP climbed 53% and broke above the channel’s upper trendline.

This move changed the medium-term chart structure and raised the possibility that the asset had finally moved out of its prolonged downtrend.

However, XRP has struggled to maintain those gains and has since entered another correction. The latest sell-off has now brought its price closer to the same trendline it broke above in August.

The Level That Could End the Current XRP Pullback

The upper trendline of the former descending channel currently sits at $1.1098. With XRP trading around $1.1981, the price would need to fall another 7.3% to reach it. This makes $1.1098 an important level for the August breakout.

How XRP reacts around this area could help determine whether the earlier rally marked a lasting change in its market structure or whether the asset is at risk of falling back into its previous downward channel.

If buyers defend $1.1098, it would confirm that the August breakout remains valid. It could also suggest that the current correction has reached its bottom and give XRP room to attempt another recovery.

Before the price reaches the trendline, the 0.888 Fibonacci retracement at $1.1347 could provide another layer of support. This level sits just above the trendline and may slow the decline if selling pressure continues.

However, a break below $1.1098 would weaken the bullish outlook and expose XRP to lower prices. The 1.0 Fibonacci retracement at $0.9779 and the $0.9000 level would become the first major areas to watch below the trendline.

If sellers push the price through both levels, XRP could fall toward $0.8214, which marks the last significant support within the former descending channel. A further breakdown below $0.8214 would bring the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $0.6814 into focus as the next downside target.

DMI Shows XRP Pullback Lacks Enough Strength

The Directional Movement Index (DMI) on XRP’s weekly chart also shows continued selling pressure. The positive directional indicator, which tracks upward momentum, currently stands at 20.48 and is moving lower.

In contrast, the negative directional indicator has reached 21.02 and continues to rise. This means downward momentum has moved ahead of buying pressure, giving sellers a slight advantage at the moment.

The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the strength of a trend, stands at 21.17 and is also declining. This suggests that the current downtrend does not have strong momentum behind it.

As a result, XRP could still find support around $1.1098 and begin to stabilize. However, the indicators have yet to show a clear change in direction. Until that happens, sellers remain in a stronger position, and the risk of further losses remains.

Moderna Stock Erases Nearly 10% Premarket Gain Despite Earnings Beat

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Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares reversed an early 9.6% premarket gain on Friday, despite the vaccine maker reporting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and raising its 2026 revenue growth forecast to 15%–25%, from a previous outlook of up to 10%.

The stock initially climbed to $264.79 after the earnings announcement but later fell to $239.85, down 0.67% from Thursday’s close of $241.46.

The premarket reversal followed two volatile sessions. Moderna shares gained 13.11% on Wednesday before dropping 6.55% on Thursday, when the stock hit a 52-week intraday high of $261 during regular trading.

Moderna shares had risen more than eightfold in 2026, with much of the rally coming after the company and Merck announced positive late-stage results for their experimental personalized melanoma vaccine in August.

Moderna’s Quarterly Revenue Beats Expectations by Nearly 48%

Moderna reported third-quarter revenue of $1.313 billion, up 29% from $1.016 billion a year earlier and approximately 48% above the $885.1 million analyst consensus estimate compiled by LSEG.

The company posted GAAP net income of $162 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, reversing a $200 million loss, or $0.51 per share, in the year-earlier quarter. FactSet’s analyst consensus forecast called for a $1.10/share loss.

Product sales contributed $1.273 billion to quarterly revenue, with another $40 million coming from other sources. Revenue totaled $780 million in the United States and $533 million internationally, with Moderna attributing the year-over-year increase primarily to stronger overseas COVID-19 vaccine sales and deliveries under long-term government partnerships.

The company expects U.S. and international markets to each contribute approximately half of its total 2026 revenue.

Moderna also lowered its projected full-year research and development expenses from approximately $2.9 billion to $2.7 billion. Third-quarter R&D spending fell 27% year over year to $583 million.

Higher Cash Forecast Reflects Financing and Operating Improvements

Moderna raised its expected year-end 2026 cash and investments balance to $8.1 billion–$8.3 billion, compared with its previous forecast of $4.7 billion–$5.2 billion. The higher projection reflects improved operating performance and approximately $2.6 billion in net proceeds from a September offering of $3 billion in convertible senior notes.

The net proceeds account for fees and purchases of capped-call transactions designed to reduce potential share dilution if the notes are converted.

Moderna held approximately $8 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments at the end of September, up from $6.9 billion at the end of June. Proceeds from the notes offering contributed to the increase, partially offset by a $950 million litigation settlement payment and cash used in operations.

During the first nine months of 2026, Moderna used $2.715 billion in cash for operating activities, according to its cash-flow statement.

The company’s latest year-end cash forecast excludes additional borrowing from approximately $900 million remaining available under its existing credit facility.

Moderna Revises Norovirus Vaccine Development Plans

Separately, Moderna said in its earnings announcement that it would not initiate another Phase 3 cohort for its experimental norovirus vaccine, mRNA-1403, this season.

The decision marks a change from its July 31 plan to enroll additional participants after an interim analysis failed to meet the statistical criteria for early success. Moderna now intends to consult health authorities before determining the program’s next steps.

Moderna Tokenized Stock Update

Meanwhile, Moderna Tokenized bStocks (MRNAB) was quoted at $245, down 4% over the preceding 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The tokenized instrument provides exposure to Moderna shares, but its 24-hour price change covers a different measurement period from the Nasdaq-listed stock’s Friday premarket trading.

XRP Social Sentiment Falls to Lowest Since July as Potential Bottoming Pattern Develops

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XRP crowd sentiment has turned sharply negative, falling to its weakest level since July just as price tests an area that could become part of a broader bottoming structure.

Santiment’s social sentiment data shows the metric moving decisively below neutral in early November. The latest reading is also substantially weaker than the mildly negative levels seen only a few days earlier, pointing to a rapid deterioration in crowd expectations.

XRP trades around $1.19-$1.20 after falling more than 7% on Nov. 5 and briefly touching the $1.18 region on Nov. 6.

XRP Crowd Sentiment Turns Deeply Negative

The sentiment sequence has changed markedly over the past several sessions.

Earlier readings oscillated around neutral, with several modestly positive periods followed by small negative prints. That balance disappeared as the latest decline accelerated, with the newest bar dropping much deeper below zero than the preceding readings.

XRP Price and Sentiment Breakdown
Santiment data shows XRP social sentiment dropping sharply below neutral to its weakest level since July as price pressure intensifies near $1.20.

Santiment’s weighted sentiment framework combines the balance of positive and negative commentary with social activity. Large negative readings therefore tend to appear when discussion volume is elevated and bearish commentary dominates.

This deterioration is consistent with a broader trend already visible in October. XRP’s bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio had fallen to 0.67 at the start of October, meaning negative discussion was already outweighing positive commentary before the latest selloff.

The Crypto Basic previously highlighted how extreme XRP price frustration has begun creating a possible contrarian sentiment setup.

Negative Sentiment Arrives as XRP Tests a Potential Bottoming Structure

The timing matters because XRP’s price structure is also approaching an important area.

Recent daily action has pushed XRP back toward the $1.18-$1.20 region, while a developing inverse head-and-shoulders structure remains possible on the broader chart.

The pattern is not confirmed.

An inverse head-and-shoulders requires a left shoulder, a deeper central low, and a right shoulder that holds above the head before price ultimately breaks the neckline.

XRP has recently been attempting to form the right-hand side of such a structure, but a meaningful bullish confirmation would still require a recovery toward and eventually above the neckline near $1.60. A breakout above that region would be needed before higher measured targets become relevant.

The Crypto Basic has also tracked XRP’s ongoing inverse head-and-shoulders formation and the resistance that must break before a move above $2 becomes viable.

Why Bearish Sentiment Could Be Constructive

The more interesting part of the setup is that the bullish trade does not appear crowded.

Deeply negative sentiment means many market participants are already positioned psychologically for more downside.

From a contrarian perspective, that can become constructive if price stops making new lows while bearish commentary continues to intensify.

Santiment has previously noted that extreme pessimism can coincide with rebound conditions, although fear alone does not identify an exact market bottom.

That distinction is important.

Negative sentiment by itself does not override price structure. XRP still faces substantial downside risk after losing the $1.26 area, with recent analysis putting the $1.10 region in focus if current support fails.

At the same time, the market is not showing the type of widespread optimism normally associated with an overcrowded bullish trade.

The next observable test is therefore straightforward: if XRP can stabilize above the $1.18-$1.20 region while social sentiment remains deeply negative, the contrarian setup would strengthen.

A sustained break lower would instead show that bearish sentiment is being confirmed by price rather than fading ahead of a reversal.

Cardano Long Accounts Stay Near 74% on Bybit as $0.174 Liquidation Pocket Looms

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Cardano derivatives traders remain heavily tilted toward longs even after ADA’s latest decline forced another wave of bullish positions out of the market.

Bybit data shows 73.93% of ADA/USDT accounts positioned long, compared with 26.07% short, producing a long/short account ratio of 2.84. Binance is less extreme but still bullish by account count, with 65.65% long and 34.35% short. These figures measure the number of accounts on each side, not the amount of capital behind their positions.

ADA trades around $0.185-$0.186, leaving price close to the $0.18 region that has repeatedly acted as a short-term battleground.

ADA Longs Take Most of the Liquidation Damage

The positioning is notable because long traders have already absorbed nearly all of the recent forced exits.

Across Binance and Bybit, roughly $2.25 million in ADA positions were liquidated over the latest completed 24-hour window. About $2.17 million came from longs, compared with only around $82,950 in shorts.

That means approximately 96% of recorded liquidations were long positions.

On Binance alone, long liquidations reached roughly $1.36 million, versus about $78,600 in shorts. Bybit recorded another $824,600 in longs against only around $7,000 in short liquidations.

Despite that flush, nearly three-quarters of Bybit accounts remain positioned for higher ADA prices.

Funding also remained mildly positive at the latest snapshot, with Binance and Bybit both showing rates around 0.01%. Positive funding generally means leveraged longs are paying shorts to maintain their positions, reinforcing the view that bullish positioning has not disappeared.

This comes as ADA taker selling has remained persistent across multiple timeframes, adding another source of pressure to the crowded-long setup.

$0.1744 Holds the Largest Downside Liquidation Cluster

The deeper liquidation structure places the largest modeled long cluster near $0.1744, where approximately $1.9 million in leveraged positions could face liquidation.

Nearby concentrations sit at $0.1749, $0.1738, $0.1723 and $0.1718.

From ADA’s $0.1857 reference price, reaching $0.1744 would require a decline of about 6.1%.

Importantly, the latest map no longer shows the earlier 10-to-1 downside imbalance within 5% of price. The current snapshot estimates $4.1 million in longs below ADA within 5%, compared with $5.9 million in shorts above.

The $0.1744 cluster therefore sits just outside that 5% window.

These are modeled liquidation estimates rather than disclosed trader stop levels. Edge or Not derives them from open interest, price action, taker flow and assumed leverage distributions, so they show where forced selling may emerge rather than where ADA must trade.

ADA Must Defend $0.18 Before $0.174 Comes Into Play

The immediate test remains around $0.18.

ADA has already shown repeated reactions near this region, while previous The Crypto Basic coverage identified $0.1824 as an important Cardano support level.

If ADA loses $0.18 while long accounts remain crowded and aggressive taker selling persists, the $0.174-$0.172 liquidation region could become increasingly relevant.

A recovery would change the setup. ADA would first need to reclaim roughly $0.19-$0.20, where recent resistance and the largest modeled short-liquidation clusters begin appearing. Edge or Not currently places the biggest upper cluster near $0.2020, with approximately $1.9 million in short liquidations modeled there.

Cardano’s broader structure also remains under pressure, with $0.1712 previously identified as a downside level if the current support range fails.

For now, the key contradiction remains: ADA longs continue to dominate account positioning even after absorbing almost all recent liquidations. Holding $0.18 would keep the $0.174 pocket at a distance, while another breakdown could push the crowded long side directly toward the next leverage cluster.

IonQ Stock Jumps Nearly 10% on Earnings Beat, 2026 Guidance Tops $500 Million

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IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) shares rose approximately 10% in Friday’s premarket trading after the quantum computing company beat third-quarter earnings expectations and raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to $505 million–$515 million from $450 million–$460 million.

The Maryland-based company reported record third-quarter revenue of $173.8 million, up 336% from a year earlier and above analysts’ expectations of approximately $141.7 million. The result marked its sixth consecutive quarter of record revenue. The company also posted an adjusted loss of $0.29 per share, narrower than analysts had expected.

Based on $318.5 million in total revenue during the first nine months, IonQ’s revised full-year guidance implies fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $186.5 million–$196.5 million. The company also expects its quantum computing revenue to grow approximately 110% year over year in 2026.

The premarket recovery followed a nearly 12% drop over two trading sessions, with IonQ shares closing Thursday at $26.43 after touching a 52-week low of $24.91.

Separately, IonQ Tokenized Stock (IONQon) was trading at $28.55, down 2.06% over 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Its 24-hour price change covers a different measurement period from the NYSE-listed stock’s Friday premarket gain.

IonQ Revenue Breakdown, Losses and Cash Position

IonQ’s quarterly revenue reflected contributions from its recently acquired semiconductor foundry business and the Platform segment.

SkyWater Foundry Services generated $83.5 million in revenue after intersegment eliminations, accounting for approximately 48% of consolidated revenue. IonQ completed its acquisition of the semiconductor foundry on July 31, meaning the reported quarter included two months of SkyWater’s operations.

The Platform segment contributed another $90.3 million in revenue, up 127% from a year earlier. The company attributed the increase partly to global deployments of its Tempo quantum computers and deliveries of other quantum technology products. Acquisitions also contributed to the segment’s growth.

Despite the revenue increase, IonQ recorded a $433.1 million operating loss and a $133.6 million adjusted EBITDA loss, reflecting continued operating expenses and investment in its technology and business operations.

The company also reported $564 million in GAAP net income attributable to IonQ, primarily reflecting an $896.2 million noncash gain from changes in the fair value of its warrant liabilities.

IonQ used $570.3 million in cash from operating activities in the first nine months of 2026, compared with $208.7 million a year earlier. The company held $1.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of September 30, rising to $3.7 billion on a pro forma basis following a $2 billion equity offering completed on October 16.

IonQ’s Contracted Work and Superion 256 Demand

IonQ reported approximately $1.2 billion in remaining performance obligations, representing contracted work for which the company had not yet fully recognized revenue. The total included $689 million from its Platform segment, up from $485 million in the previous quarter, and $479 million from SkyWater Foundry Services.

IonQ expects to recognize approximately half of its remaining performance obligations as revenue over the next 12 months, according to its quarterly filing.

The company’s remaining performance obligations include signed contracts for which funding has not yet been appropriated but exclude contract options that customers have not exercised. Revenue recognition depends on meeting the underlying contractual obligations.

The Platform segment signed about $290 million in new contracts in the third quarter, including $180 million tied to quantum computing. Those contracts included demand for the company’s Superion 256 quantum computing systems.

During an earnings call, Chairman and CEO Niccolo de Masi said IonQ had sold out its available production capacity for Superion 256 systems in 2027 and was beginning to fill orders for 2028. However, IonQ has not disclosed how many Superion 256 systems have been ordered for either year or provided revenue guidance for 2027.

De Masi said SkyWater provided substantial chip manufacturing capacity, while IonQ would continue expanding its ability to produce complete quantum computing systems. 

XRP Falls Into Familiar Deviation Zone Seen Before a 70% Rebound

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XRP has fallen below the lower boundary of its latest trading range, placing the asset inside a deviation zone that closely resembles the structure formed before its powerful August recovery.

XRP trades around $1.18-$1.19 after another sharp market-wide decline. The daily structure now places price below the recent range floor near $1.24-$1.25 but still above a key technical level at $1.1404.

The setup remains constructive only if XRP can turn the current breakdown into a temporary deviation and eventually reclaim the lost range. Until then, lower prices remain possible.

XRP Previously Reclaimed a Similar Deviation Before Surging

The larger structure begins with a broad range whose lower boundary sits near $1.10 and whose upper boundary extends toward approximately $2.40.

XRP USD Deviation and Reclaim Analysis
XRP has slipped below its recent range low into a deviation zone stretching toward $1.14, echoing the structure that preceded its August recovery toward $1.70.

During June, XRP lost the lower boundary of that range and entered the shaded deviation area below support. Selling eventually pushed price close to $1, substantially beneath the former range floor.

Instead of continuing lower, XRP recovered.

Price reclaimed the range during August and then accelerated sharply, reaching approximately $1.70. From a low near $1, that represented an advance of roughly 70%.

That earlier recovery is important because XRP has now entered a similar—but smaller—structure.

Previous The Crypto Basic analysis has also identified the $1.10-$1.29 region as an important XRP support zone.

XRP Is Now Deviating Below a Smaller Range

After the August breakout, XRP established another range between roughly $1.24-$1.25 and $1.70.

The $1.70 area became the range high after several September attempts failed to produce a sustained breakout. XRP subsequently formed lower highs through October before returning to the bottom of the structure.

Price has now fallen below that range floor.

The highlighted deviation area extends from approximately $1.24 toward $1.1404, with XRP currently trading inside it.

From the chart reference price near $1.1863, reaching $1.1404 would require another decline of approximately 3.9%.

Below that, the larger range low near $1.10 becomes increasingly important.

This aligns with recent analysis showing that XRP’s downside structure could extend toward $1.10 if current support fails.

Reclaiming $1.24-$1.25 Would Change the Setup

The bullish interpretation does not depend on XRP simply touching the deviation zone.

Price needs to reclaim the former $1.24-$1.25 range low.

Such a move would suggest the breakdown was temporary, similar to the June-August deviation. Holding back above that level would then put the middle and upper portions of the recent range back into focus.

The major upside reference is around $1.70, the latest range high.

From $1.1863, a recovery to $1.70 would represent roughly 43% upside.

Beyond that, the broader structure identifies another important level near $2.0972, followed by the larger range high around $2.40. These become relevant only after XRP first recovers $1.24-$1.25 and then clears $1.70.

Recent derivatives data also shows why the immediate downside remains important, with heavy long-liquidation exposure concentrated below current XRP prices.

$1.14 Is the Immediate Test

The current setup therefore hinges on two levels.

$1.1404 represents the next important support inside the deviation zone. Holding above that area would preserve the possibility that XRP is repeating the earlier range-reclaim structure.

A deeper loss of $1.14 would expose the larger range floor around $1.10 and weaken the comparison considerably.

On the upside, $1.24-$1.25 must be reclaimed before the structure becomes meaningfully bullish again.

For now, XRP is trading where a deviation-and-reclaim setup could develop. The next observable test is whether buyers can defend $1.14-$1.10 and force price back above $1.24-$1.25.

IREN Stock Rebounds Nearly 20% as AI Cloud Revenue Nearly Triples

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IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN) shares rebounded nearly 20% to $21.62 in Friday’s premarket trading after the company reported a 182% sequential increase in AI Cloud revenue to $200 million for its fiscal first quarter.

The rebound followed a two-day selloff in which IREN shares lost approximately 26.3%.

Total revenue rose 66% to $228 million in the quarter ended September 30, 2026, exceeding analysts’ consensus estimate of $221.28 million, according to LSEG data. IREN also reported a 22% increase in its contracted revenue backlog to $20.3 billion at quarter-end.

The results included a revised timeline for IREN’s target of more than $4 billion in operating annualized run-rate revenue (ARR), which the company now expects to reach in January 2027 rather than December 2026, with a possible extension through February.

IREN also expanded an agreement with an existing frontier AI laboratory customer after quarter-end and signed additional computing contracts, including a five-year agreement requiring customer prepayments covering 90% of the associated estimated GPU capital expenditure.

AI Cloud Revenue, Quarterly Results and New Contracts

IREN’s quarterly AI Cloud revenue comprised $135 million from cloud services and $65 million from cloud leasing. The business generated $71 million in the preceding quarter, entirely from cloud services.

Bitcoin mining revenue declined to $28 million from $67 million over the same period as IREN continued decommissioning mining hardware to make way for AI computing capacity.

IREN reported an 86% gross profit margin for its AI Cloud segment, unchanged from June. The company’s non-GAAP measure excludes depreciation, amortization, and site-level costs.

Its net loss narrowed to $263 million from $684 million in the previous quarter. The comparison was affected by about $450 million in impairment charges recorded in the June quarter, mainly related to the retirement of Bitcoin mining equipment, versus just $2 million in the September quarter.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased to $66 million from $19 million over the same period.

The new five-year computing contract carries estimated annual revenue of approximately $22 million per megawatt of IT capacity. IREN also signed a separate short-term agreement with estimated annual revenue of approximately $40 million per IT megawatt.

The company also reported securing new contracts for its older-generation NVIDIA H100 GPUs at double the price under a previous contract at Prince George.

Approximately two-thirds of IREN’s contracted revenue backlog is associated with investment-grade counterparties or their guarantors, according to the company. Recognition of this contracted revenue is subject to delivery and service requirements.

IREN Moves $4 Billion-Plus Operating ARR Target Into 2027 and Details Funding

IREN ended September with $1 billion in operating ARR, twice the previous quarter’s level, after its first Horizon data center entered service for Microsoft.

Management attributed the delay in reaching its more than $4 billion operating ARR target to customer-requested network changes affecting Microsoft-related infrastructure and delays in equipment deliveries from suppliers. IREN said it would not face financial penalties for delays arising from Microsoft’s requested modifications.

During an earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Anthony Lewis said IREN expected to recognize approximately one-quarter of its September-end operating ARR as revenue during the December quarter.

Lewis also said incremental capacity at Horizon and Mackenzie was not expected to contribute material revenue during that period. Most of the additional capacity was scheduled to arrive in late December or early 2027.

IREN calculates operating ARR using contracted hourly pricing for commissioned GPUs, annualized over a full year, together with associated storage and ancillary revenue. The measure differs from recognized revenue, which depends on commissioning, testing, and customer acceptance.

The company said its initial 300-megawatt IT capacity program supporting the more than $4 billion ARR target is fully contracted and funded, subject to conditions attached to committed financing facilities.

However, IREN’s broader expansion plan still requires additional financing. The company outlined approximately $15 billion in remaining planned capital expenditure for fiscal 2027, measured from September 30. It identified approximately $9 billion in cash, committed GPU financing, and contracted customer prepayments.

That amount includes restricted cash, undrawn financing facilities, and customer payments not yet received.

IREN expects to fund the remaining $6 billion through additional targeted GPU financing, customer prepayments, data center financing, and other corporate funding sources, subject to market conditions. The additional funding would support future capacity expansion beyond the initial program underlying the company’s more than $4 billion operating ARR target.

IREN Tokenized Stock Price

Separately, IREN Limited Tokenized bStocks (IRENB) was quoted at $21.48, down 0.12% over the preceding 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. IRENB is a tokenized instrument distinct from IREN’s Nasdaq-listed shares.