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Cardano Will Start Pumping When Bitcoin Crosses This Key EMA

Elendu Benedict
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Cardano Will Start Pumping When Bitcoin Crosses This Key EMA

Cardano is consolidating around a key support level, but everything depends on how Bitcoin navigates through near-term price barriers.

This narrative is interesting as Cardano continues to trail Bitcoin in price performance. In the past 30 days, BTC has increased by 20%, compared to ADA’s 6% rise. However, an analysis suggests that Cardano would soon start moving on account of Bitcoin’s resurgence.

Specifically, “Drini” noted that the broader direction remains closely tied to Bitcoin, which is attempting to regain strength near $80,000. This correlation continues to shape expectations for Cardano and the wider altcoin market beyond the current trend.

Key Points

  • An analysis suggests that Cardano would soon start moving on account of Bitcoin’s resurgence.
  • The correlation between Cardano and Bitcoin remains a defining factor, as ADA has historically followed the crypto leader’s moves, but often with a delay.
  • Bitcoin breaking the 55-week exponential moving average in the $86,000 area is key to altcoins rallying.
  • ADA could climb as high as the 127% Fib. level at near $4, marking a 1,500% rise from the current market price

For Cardano, Everything Depends on Bitcoin

According to the commentary, the correlation between ADA and Bitcoin remains a defining factor. Historically, ADA has followed the crypto leader’s moves but often with a delay. This means that when Bitcoin begins to recover, ADA may take time to mirror that momentum.

For Bitcoin, the 55-week exponential moving average at the $86,000 area is key. It confirms that bulls are in control of the market, a dynamic that could pave the way for a broader altcoin recovery. In that scenario, ADA’s historical correlation with Bitcoin and its current position near long-term support could serve as a base for an upward move.

Drini noted that those who believe that Bitcoin has bottomed should load up some Cardano. Its historical beta play and current trend in a good opportunity zone for over three months make the coin one to watch.

However, if Bitcoin fails to break through $86,000 and turns lower again, ADA may continue to move sideways or retest lower levels.

Cardano Price Structure Holds

From a technical perspective, Cardano is holding near a long-tested support zone, with price hovering around the $0.25 range after several weeks of sideways movement. 

The chart shows ADA repeatedly finding stability near previous cycle lows, with multiple touches of this area met by buying pressure. This suggests that the market is recognizing the current range as a structural bottom, at least in the meantime.

Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano Price Analysis

However, ADA is trading below key moving averages, including the 50- and 100-week EMAs at $0.44 and $0.52. These have acted as support during past rallies and reclaiming them shifts momentum upwards.

Fibonacci Targets for Rebound

The chart also shows Fibonacci retracement levels, with the price currently sitting near the 0% level near $0.23. Should ADA regain momentum, the technical tool provides possible areas to watch.

The closest is the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $0.42, representing a 68% rise. Interestingly, the chart shows that ADA could climb as high as the 127% Fib. level near $4, marking a 1,500% rise from the current market price of $0.25.

However, everything hinges on Bitcoin moving above a critical threshold near its 55-week EMA. Until that level is cleared, altcoins like ADA are likely to remain constrained, with limited upside despite holding support.

The analyst also expects Cardano to build past the recent internal ecosystem conflict. Treasury spending and IOG’s budget funding request have been at the center of this fallout involving major stakeholders like Charles Hoskinson and Iagon CEO Navjit Dhaliwal.

XRP Chances of Crossing $100 Are Greater Than 1%: Analyst

Lele Jima
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XRP Chances of Crossing $100 Are Greater Than 1%: Analyst

A well-known crypto analyst has made a bold claim, arguing that the probability of XRP reaching triple-digit prices is greater than 1%. 

He made this assertion in direct response to recent comments from David Schwartz, who has repeatedly expressed skepticism about extreme XRP and Ethereum price targets.

Key Points 

  • A market commentator argues that XRP has a greater than 1% chance of reaching $100.
  • The projection draws on a long-term technical chart, which shows XRP following a structured growth pattern since 2014.
  • A popular AI model estimates a roughly 20% probability that XRP will hit $100 within the next decade.
  • The expert’s analysis emerges as Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz weighs in on the likelihood of extreme XRP price targets over the same timeframe.

XRP Has Over 1% Chance of Reaching $100 

Crypto investor and analyst Patrick L. Riley joined the ongoing debate about XRP’s price potential, directly challenging former Ripple CTO David Schwartz.

For context, Schwartz recently argued that XRP is unlikely to reach $10,000 within the next decade. He emphasized that if wealthy, rational investors truly believed in such an outcome, XRP would already be trading around $20.

In addition, Schwartz reflected on his past misjudgments. He revealed that he once assigned a probability of less than 1% to Ethereum reaching around $2,368. As a result, he sold his ETH holdings at approximately $1.05 per token.

However, Riley pushed back against this cautious stance, particularly about XRP. He argued that the probability of XRP surpassing $100 is significantly higher than 1%, suggesting that current market expectations may underestimate its long-term potential. 

Catalyst Behind the Bold Assertion

Riley supports his argument with a long-term technical analysis of XRP’s price structure. Specifically, he points to a chart showing XRP moving within ascending channels since 2014.

According to his analysis, XRP has consistently formed higher lows while gradually expanding. Moreover, the asset has historically respected diagonal trendlines, reinforcing the idea of a structured growth pattern.

Notably, price action often compresses into triangular formations before major breakouts. This pattern appeared during the 2018 cycle and again around mid-2025, suggesting a recurring setup for large moves.

Building on this, Riley projects that XRP could continue to trade near the upper boundary of its long-term channel. If this structure holds, he believes exponential upside remains plausible, potentially driving the price toward $100. From its current level near $1.40, a move to $100 would require an increase of over 7,000%. 

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Potential Timeline and Supporting Views

To strengthen his outlook, Riley referenced projections from xAI’s Grok, which assigns roughly a 20% probability that XRP could reach $100 within the next decade, or around 2036.

According to the AI model, several factors could support such growth. These include Schwartz’s own suggestion that higher XRP prices could make payments cheaper, as well as broader expansion across the crypto market.

Meanwhile, other forecasting platforms, such as Telegaon, estimate that XRP could reach $100 between 2041 and 2050. Despite these optimistic projections, uncertainty remains. While Riley’s analysis highlights a structured path toward higher valuations, Schwartz’s perspective emphasizes market realism and investor behavior. 

XRP Prints Tightest Bollinger Band Squeeze in Years — Analyst Says a Big Move Is Coming

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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XRP Prints Tightest Bollinger Band Squeeze in Years — Analyst Says a Big Move Is Coming

XRP is entering a critical phase after forming what analysts describe as its tightest Bollinger Bands squeeze in years.

On X, Bitcoin analyst Seth pointed out that XRP has just recorded its tightest Bollinger Bands compression in 2026, a technical pattern that reflects extremely low volatility. Historically, such conditions don’t last long and tend to resolve with a strong price move.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.40, down slightly by 0.14% on the day. However, the broader trend shows some stability, with the asset up 1% over the past week and 8% in the last month.

Key Points

  • XRP records its tightest Bollinger Bands squeeze in years, signaling a major volatility expansion ahead.
  • The price holds near $1.40, with consolidation hinting at accumulation after a prolonged downtrend.
  • Key levels include $1.25 support and $1.67 resistance, with higher targets if momentum builds.
  • Analysts remain split, but compressed volatility suggests the next move could come with force.

Why This Setup Matters for XRP

A Bollinger Bands squeeze occurs when price volatility drops and the bands tighten around price action. This typically precedes a breakout, but the direction is not guaranteed. Traders often look for confirmation through volume spikes or key level breaks.

In XRP’s case, the chart shows the price consolidating tightly near the $1.39–$1.41 region after a prolonged downtrend from highs above $3 earlier in the cycle. This sideways movement suggests accumulation or indecision in the market.

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Key Levels to Watch

From the chart structure, the immediate resistance includes:

  • Near $1.6677 (0.618 Fibonacci level)
  • Around $2.00 (0.5 Fibonacci level)
  • Higher targets at $2.40 and $2.90 if momentum builds

On the downside:

  • Support is forming around $1.25 (0.786 Fibonacci level)
  • A breakdown below this could open the door toward $1.10

Volume profile data also shows heavy trading activity clustered around the current price zone, indicating this is a key decision area for market participants.

Bullish or Bearish?

The setup itself is neutral; it signals that a move is coming, but the direction remains unclear. Bulls will argue that XRP’s recent steady gains and consolidation point to accumulation before a breakout higher. Bears, on the other hand, may see the downtrend structure as still intact.

What’s clear is that XRP is approaching a phase of volatility expansion. Traders are watching closely for confirmation moves that could determine the next major trend.

As Seth noted, history suggests that when volatility compresses this tightly, the eventual move tends to come “with force.”

“Most Are Misreading XRP”

It is worth noting that many analysts in the XRP community lean toward a bullish interpretation.

Analyst ChiefraT recently argued for a $500 billion market cap for XRP, which would equate to an $8 price based on a cup-and-handle pattern.

Separately, veteran XRP investor Nepentia argued that XRP has transitioned into an accumulation phase since the price dropped 70% from its peak.

The analyst noted that XRP’s mid-2025 rally above $3 came as Binance exchange reserves peaked near 3.05 billion XRP, suggesting large holders sold at the top.

Since February 2026, reserves have stabilized around 2.75 billion XRP, with the price near $1.38. This suggests that selling pressure has eased and accumulation may be underway.

In other words, falling or stable reserves alongside rising prices can signal a bullish shift. The investor argues that early trends often go unnoticed, urging a focus on data over sentiment.

At the same time, other bullish XRP analysts like ChartNerd see the possibility of a price dip below $1 before any strong uptrend.

They Called XRP Dead in 2023, Now $10 Is Closer Than You Think: Analyst

Elendu Benedict
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They Called XRP Dead in 2023, Now $10 Is Closer Than You Think: Analyst

XRP has a history of moving against market sentiment, and that pattern is again showing signs of repeating, this time targeting uncharted territory.

Analysis from Crypto Patel highlighted that the XRP long-term structure is beginning to resemble earlier phases that preceded sharp moves. With key support levels still intact, the commentator claims that $10 is closer than most people think.

Key Points

  • The XRP long-term structure is beginning to resemble earlier phases that preceded sharp moves.
  • An accompanying chart shows a broader accumulation area around $0.70 and $0.90, as well as a milder support zone near $1.20.
  • Part of XRP’s bullish narrative comes from its utility in payment and its efficiency compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • Short-term resistance remains near the $2-$3 range, while the long-term target is $10-$20.

Recurring Pattern of Price Expansion When Doubt Arises

Patel emphasized that earlier cycles show how quickly narratives can shift for XRP. In 2017, critics dismissed XRP when it traded near $0.006, calling $3 a “fantasy.” Yet it went on to rally 55,733% to $3.35 the following year. 

A similar dynamic appeared again in November 2024. Market watchers pronounced XRP “dead” in 2023 when the price traded around $0.5. Again, the coin moved against crowd sentiment, surging to $2.60 in 30 days.

It eventually rallied to $3.36 in January 2025 before reaching a new all-time high of $3.67 by July 2025 despite widespread skepticism.

Today, XRP is trading at $1.40, with price action hovering above a range that has served as support in recent months. An accompanying chart highlights a broader accumulation area around $0.70 and $0.90, where XRP previously consolidated before moving higher.

XRP Accumulation Zone/Crypto Patel
XRP Accumulation Zone/Crypto Patel

More recently, a higher accumulation region has formed near the $1.10 to $1.20 level, suggesting that buyers have continued to step in at elevated levels.

Price Structure Shows Accumulation and Breakout Setup

The chart structure reflects a transition from a prolonged downtrend into a consolidation phase. After breaking above a descending trendline earlier in November 2024, XRP entered a strong upward move to the resistance area around $3. Bulls failed to push above this supply zone, forcing a 61% price pullback to the current level.

However, XRP appears to be forming a base above previous resistance near $1.20, which is now acting as support. This type of behavior often indicates that an asset is sustaining upward momentum, forming higher lows rather than lower highs.

XRP Utility Narrative Shapes Bullish Outlook

Part of the bullish narrative in XRP comes from its utility, a feature Patel claims 99% still doesn’t understand. The asset has strong positioning within the global settlement infrastructure, playing a crucial role in Ripple’s payment business. 

Further, compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP is faster and has lower transaction costs, which has supported its use in cross-border payment systems. The analysis noted that banks are already using XRP globally, reinforcing its strengthening appeal.

That utility narrative has remained consistent even during periods of weaker price performance. A recent report highlighted that Ripple has over 13,000 bank connections and $12.5 trillion in payment volume. As an integral part of that system, this highlights XRP’s growing role in the global markets.

While adoption alone does not determine market value, it continues to influence how XRP is perceived within the broader digital asset landscape. The analyst noted that the tech is ready, the rails are in existence, and adoption is expanding, yet XRP still trades near $1.40.

XRP Price Outlook

The chart shows that short-term resistance remains near the $2-$3 range, where price has previously struggled to maintain momentum. A sustained move above that region would signal a stronger shift in market structure and could open the path toward higher levels over time.

Patel noted that $10 to $20 is absolutely possible once the breakout occurs, citing these levels as long-term targets. Based on the current market price, this would imply staggering growth of 614% and 1,328%, respectively.

While he talked up the prospects of a $100 valuation, the analyst deems it an overreach at this time. 

Schwartz Reveals Over 1M XRP Holdings, Says Ripple and XRP Remain Only Crypto Exposure

Lele Jima
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Schwartz Reveals Over 1M XRP Holdings, Says Ripple and XRP Remain Only Crypto Exposure

David Schwartz, CTO Emeritus at Ripple, has provided a rare, direct look into his crypto portfolio, specifically his XRP holdings. 

Key Points

  • Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz revealed he once held 26 million XRP.
  • Although he described his current holdings as “not a lot,” he clarified they still exceed one million XRP.
  • He also disclosed major reductions in other assets, cutting his Bitcoin holdings from over 1,000 BTC to less than 1, and his Ethereum holdings from about 40,000 ETH to under 2.
  • Schwartz emphasized that his remaining crypto exposure is now almost entirely concentrated in XRP and Ripple. 

Ex-Ripple CTO Says He Owns Over 1M XRP 

David Schwartz has once again captured the attention of the crypto community, this time with a personal disclosure about his digital asset holdings. During a recent exchange on X, he confirmed that he currently holds more than one million XRP, even though he still considers that amount “not a lot.” However, he also clarified that his holdings were once far larger, totaling 26 million XRP.

This disclosure follows growing curiosity among XRP community members trying to estimate his actual holdings. While some speculated figures as low as 10,000 XRP, others pointed to activity from one of his public wallets, previously used to add liquidity to the XRP/FUZZY AMM pool, as evidence of a smaller balance. 

At press time, that specific wallet holds roughly 4,800 XRP. However, this relatively small balance does not reflect his total exposure. Instead, it suggests that Schwartz distribute his XRP across multiple wallets rather than keeping it in a single address.

Schwartz Reduces Bitcoin and Ethereum Exposure

In a follow-up commentary, Schwartz outlined a dramatic reduction in his holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum. He revealed that he once held more than 1,000 BTC and around 40,000 ETH. Today, however, he holds less than 1 Bitcoin and less than 2 Ethereum.

He attributed these decisions partly to his earlier skepticism about their long-term price potential. For instance, he admitted that he did not expect Bitcoin to surpass $100 or Ethereum to reach $2,000. Consequently, he sold most of his ETH at approximately $1.05 per token, well before its major price surge. 

Only XRP and Ripple Exposure Remains

Meanwhile, Schwartz emphasized that his current crypto exposure now centers almost entirely on XRP and Ripple. Notably, he suggested that this positioning did not result from a carefully planned strategy. Instead, it reflects a series of decisions shaped by experience, uncertainty, and evolving market perspectives. 

Explaining further, Schwartz highlighted the mindset behind his choices. He described himself as consistently skeptical of his own judgment. As a result, he continuously reassesses and refines his decisions. 

Community Reactions and Comparisons

Following the disclosure, reactions quickly spread across the XRP community. Some users questioned why Schwartz received a comparatively smaller allocation than other creators of the token, despite being one of XRP’s original creators. 

For example, one of XRPL’s creators, Arthur Britto, is widely reported to have received around 2% of XRP’s total supply, with estimates ranging from 1.3 billion to 2 billion tokens. This disparity has fueled speculation within the community, with some suggesting that Schwartz may never fully disclose the extent of his XRP holdings. 

Flare CEO Says Network Mints XRP Directly From Exchanges, Removing KYC Friction Other Wrapped Models Can’t Solve

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Flare CEO Says Network Mints XRP Directly From Exchanges, Removing KYC Friction Other Wrapped Models Can’t Solve

Flare CEO Hugo Philion has outlined how the network can mint XRP directly from exchanges, removing the KYC and centralization barriers that have limited other wrapped-XRP models.

In a recent interview with Paul Barron, Philion explained that this approach could unlock a more scalable and accessible DeFi ecosystem for XRP holders.

Key Points

  • Flare enables XRP minting directly from exchanges, removing KYC friction seen in other wrapped XRP models.
  • FXRP lets users access DeFi without intermediaries, improving onboarding and expanding access for XRP holders.
  • Flare now hosts ~155M XRP and a $450M DeFi market, adding lending, insurance, and yield tools.
  • With Flare 2.0, the network aims to boost privacy, scale, and institutional adoption through secure computing.

Direct Minting from Exchanges Changes the Game

At the core of Flare’s approach is FXRP. It launched in September 2025 to allow users to bring XRP into DeFi without relying on centralized intermediaries.

Unlike other wrapped XRP solutions, which require identity verification at the minting stage, Flare enables users to mint directly from exchanges without KYC.

According to Philion, this is possible because competing systems rely on centralized entities that must verify users before issuing wrapped tokens. Flare removes that layer entirely, allowing XRP holders to move funds into DeFi more seamlessly.

The result is a smoother onboarding process that reduces friction and broadens access for users who prioritize privacy or face restrictions from centralized platforms.

Building a DeFi Ecosystem Around XRP

Flare’s mission is to turn XRP into a productive asset within decentralized finance. The network brings smart contract functionality to assets like XRP that do not natively support it.

Since launching FXRP, Flare has grown into the largest XRP DeFi ecosystem. The network now hosts around 155 million XRP and supports a DeFi market worth roughly $450 million.

FXRP
FXRP

Partnerships have played a key role in that expansion. Flare has backed projects like Firelight, an emerging DeFi insurance protocol that uses XRP as collateral. It has also integrated institutional-focused platforms such as Morpho.

These additions aim to create a more mature financial environment in which lending, insurance, and yield generation can operate at scale.

Yield Demand Driving XRP Adoption

Philion pointed to a shift in user behavior following the resolution of the Ripple legal case. With regulatory uncertainty easing, XRP holders are increasingly looking for ways to earn yield while keeping their assets secure.

Flare is positioning itself as the solution to that demand. It offers infrastructure that supports lending, collateralization, and other DeFi strategies built around XRP.

However, the company is taking a measured approach to growth. Philion emphasized that scaling too quickly could create systemic risks, referencing past issues in DeFi where rapid expansion led to capital shortfalls and bailouts.

Instead, Flare is focusing on gradual, security-first development, bringing in stablecoins, institutional liquidity, and robust risk management tools before accelerating adoption.

Flare 2.0

Looking ahead, Flare is preparing to launch Flare 2.0, a major upgrade centered on confidential computing.

This new layer will improve scalability while introducing privacy features that keep sensitive data secure during computations. The upgrade could also make the network more attractive to institutional players, who require both efficiency and confidentiality.

Philion suggested that this evolution could open the door to a broader range of financial products.

Ultimately, Flare is attempting to reshape how XRP works in decentralized finance by enabling direct minting from exchanges and removing traditional onboarding barriers.

Investors Need Minimum of 1 Year Cardano Hold to Let the Thesis Cook, Roughly 500% Upside Potential

Elendu Benedict
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Investors Need Minimum of 1 Year Cardano Hold to Let the Thesis Cook, Roughly 500% Upside Potential

Cardano is setting up well within a long-term price pattern, and an analysis highlights massive upside potential if it plays out fully.

At the time of writing, Cardano (ADA) trades at $0.252, down slightly in the past 24 hours. The asset, like most other altcoins, has continued to underperform against Bitcoin, which recently reached an over-3-month high of $81,000 on Tuesday.

Yet, ADA’s trajectory remains positive in the longer term, according to an analysis from “BFB.” The outlook suggested that with patience, holders at the current level will enjoy outsized gains when a bullish long-term pattern begins to play out.

Key Points

  • Cardano is tightening near the lower boundary of an ascending support trendline that stretches back to earlier market cycles.
  • Despite broader price weakness, ADA has held above this support, suggesting strength.
  • ADA appears to be forming a large symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart, defined by rising support and descending resistance.
  • A breakout above the upper resistance line would confirm a shift in momentum.
  • Analysis suggests a potential expansion toward the $1.70 region over time, representing a 575% move from current levels.

ADA Holds Support

The analysis shows that Cardano is tightening near the lower boundary of an ascending support trendline that stretches back to earlier market cycles. This trendline served as the base during the 2020 consolidation phase, with the coin bouncing off it to reach unprecedented prices in 2021 as market conditions improved.

Despite broader price weakness, ADA has held above this support, suggesting strength. Notably, the coin is down 24% since the start of this year and over 80% from its bull cycle peak of $1.32, but appears to be finding support around this multi-year level.

The analyst suggests that this level is acting as a base where accumulation may be taking place. The repeated defense of support suggests that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed, even as overall market sentiment remains cautious.

Cardano Price Structure Signals Long-Term Setup

Meanwhile, an accompanying weekly chart shows that ADA appears to be forming a large symmetrical triangle, defined by rising support and descending resistance. The resistance line has capped multiple rallies since December 2024, while the support trendline is the mult-year demand zone mentioned earlier.

Cardano Descending Triangle/BFB
Cardano Descending Triangle/BFB

Notably, this compression between support and resistance often precedes a decisive move. What stands out in this case is how cleanly both boundaries have been respected, indicating that market participants are closely monitoring ADA’s price action.

If the price continues to hold above the current support zone, the structure remains intact. A sustained move toward the upper resistance line, followed by a breakout, would confirm a shift in momentum that has been absent for much of the past year.

While it might not look like it now, the structure favors bulls in the long term. It just requires patience, with the commentator highlighting a minimum of a one-year hold for the structure to fully form.

Over 500% Upside If Cardano Breaks Resistance

A confirmed breakout above the descending resistance could open the path toward significantly higher price levels. The chart suggests a potential expansion toward the $1.70 region over time.

That would represent a 575% move from current levels, though such a scenario would likely require sustained momentum and supportive market conditions. Until that breakout occurs, the structure remains in its consolidation phase.

In the meantime, market conditions suggest momentum is beginning to build. In the past 24 hours, ADA open interest has increased by 4.6%, while futures volume has spiked by 35% over the same period.

Cardano Futures Flow/Coinglass
Cardano Futures Flow/Coinglass

Spot volume ticked up by 56%, with 24-hour spot flow showing that users are accumulating ADA rather than leaving it on exchanges.

Ex-Ripple CTO Highlights Key Flaw in $20 XRP Price and $100 Bitcoin Comparison

Lele Jima
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Ex-Ripple CTO Highlights Key Flaw in $20 XRP Price and $100 Bitcoin Comparison

Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz has weighed in on comparisons between Bitcoin’s early days and the current outlook for XRP. 

His remarks come amid speculation about his view on the $10,000 XRP price target. In addition, debate continues within the crypto community over whether past market surprises, as seen in Bitcoin’s early days, can realistically repeat at scale for assets like XRP.

Key Points

  • Ripple CTO David Schwartz recalled that a $100 Bitcoin once seemed unrealistic, a sentiment similar to current skepticism about $20 XRP.
  • He cautioned that the comparison is flawed because of their different market caps.
  • Bitcoin’s market cap was around $1.3 billion in April 2013 at $100, whereas XRP is already valued at $86 billion.
  • A move to $20 would push XRP’s market cap to roughly $1.23 trillion.

$100 Bitcoin Price Seemed Impossible as $20 XRP Looks Today: Schwartz 

In a recent tweet, Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz reflected on how perceptions in the crypto market evolve. He admitted that there was a period when a $100 Bitcoin price seemed implausible, much like how some investors today view a $20 XRP price as overly optimistic. 

However, he cautioned against drawing direct comparisons between the two situations. Specifically, Schwartz emphasized that XRP’s current market capitalization already far exceeds Bitcoin’s valuation when it traded at $100, potentially weakening the comparison. 

For context, when Bitcoin first crossed $100 in April 2013, its market cap stood at roughly $1.3 billion. In contrast, XRP’s valuation now sits around $86.63 billion, with a unit price near $1.40.

Given its circulating supply of about 61.79 billion tokens, XRP would reach an estimated market cap of $1.23 trillion if its price climbed to $20. The scale difference highlights the growing difficulty of replicating Bitcoin’s early explosive growth.

Ripple CTO Emeritus Highlights Market Cap Implications 

Schwartz reinforced this point with a practical analogy. He compared two similar tokens, noting that if one has a market cap 10 times that of the other, the smaller asset is far more likely to experience sharp price swings. 

In fact, he pointed out that a smaller token could surge by 100% simply because a single large holder decides to accumulate it. By contrast, a larger-cap asset like XRP requires far more coordinated capital to move significantly. 

His remarks build on an earlier statement that challenged one of the most extreme narratives circulating in the XRP community, the possibility of a $10,000 price. As reported earlier, he argued that if sophisticated investors genuinely believed XRP had even a small chance of reaching such levels, their buying activity would already have pushed the price substantially higher, potentially toward $20.

Consequently, while some interpreted his comments as outright disbelief in a $10,000 XRP valuation, Schwartz’s broader message appears more nuanced. He is not merely dismissing upside potential; rather, he is urging investors to ground their expectations in market realities. 

LegalBison Publishes Primary-Source MiCA Compliance Research Series Covering CASP Register Data, Grandfathering Gaps, and White Paper Deficiencies

Andrew MacGill
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LegalBison Publishes Primary-Source MiCA Compliance Research Series Covering CASP Register Data, Grandfathering Gaps, and White Paper Deficiencies

12-part series with Bitcoin.com News draws on live CASP register analysis and ESMA data to address the compliance blind spots most commonly leading to authorization failure

LegalBison releases MiCA Decoded, a 12-part compliance research series published in collaboration with Bitcoin.com News. The series applies direct analysis of live CASP register data, ESMA publications, and active authorization experience across EU member states to the compliance questions that are most consistently producing failed or delayed CASP applications.

A central finding from the firm’s register analysis: of 174 entities currently listed on the CASP register, only 14 hold authorization covering the exchange of crypto assets for fiat currency or other crypto assets on behalf of third parties, the service category applicable to most centralized exchange operators. The disparity between total registrations and exchange-specific authorizations reflects both the tiered service category structure under MiCA and the considerably heavier documentation, capital, and governance requirements that exchange authorization carries relative to custody-only or transfer-only classifications.

The series addresses in detail the material discrepancy between MiCA’s statutory 25-working-day assessment window and actual authorization timelines. National competent authorities conduct completeness assessments before the formal clock starts, a process that resets if the file is found deficient.

In practice, the operational window from initial NCA engagement to authorization decision runs four to six months in jurisdictions with established processing pipelines, and longer where application volumes have increased materially since MiCA’s application date. Compliance teams structuring internal timelines around the statutory figure are building on a number that does not reflect regulatory process as it actually operates.

On grandfathering: the series documents the specific eligibility conditions that national transitional provisions require and identifies the widespread misapplication of the transitional framework by operators who were not regulated under a qualifying pre-MiCA national regime at the point MiCA came into application. Entities that did not hold a valid registration or license under their member state’s pre-MiCA crypto framework before the relevant implementation date are not eligible for transitional treatment, they require full MiCA authorization now. Several member states have also implemented shortened transitional periods that are not uniform across the EU.

The series also covers the technical and format requirements for crypto-asset white papers under MiCA, an area where the gap between market practice and regulatory requirement is widest. The regulation specifies mandatory disclosure content, publication obligations, and NCA notification procedures that project documentation, GitHub repositories, and investor-facing materials do not satisfy. Unlike an incomplete authorization file, which triggers a completeness pause, a white paper published without proper notification or in a non-compliant format constitutes a breach from the date of issuance.

“The compliance errors we see most often are not the result of negligence, they are the result of working from secondary sources rather than from the regulation and the register directly,” said Aaron Glauberman, Managing Partner at LegalBison. “The CASP register tells you exactly what has been authorized and under which service categories. The authorization data does not match what most of the market believes about MiCA compliance as a starting point.”

Additional topics covered across the 12 instalments include: jurisdictional strategy and NCA process differences across MiCA-implementing member states; fitness and propriety requirements for management body members; minimum capital requirements by service category and their verification at application stage; passporting notification procedures and scope limitations; and the compliance architecture required for CASP authorization covering multiple service categories simultaneously.

The full MiCA Decoded series is available at Bitcoin.com News and at https://legalbison.com. LegalBison’s CASP authorization practice operates across multiple EU member states, providing full-cycle support from jurisdictional selection and operational architecture through application preparation, regulator engagement, and post-authorization compliance.

About LegalBison

LegalBison is a global boutique legal and business services firm designing the optimal regulatory, financial, and operational environment for FinTech and digital asset projects. As a licensed Corporate Service Provider with offices across key global hubs, including Warsaw, Tallinn, Manama, San José, Panama City, and Kuala Lumpur, and operational reach across 50+ jurisdictions, LegalBison combines lawyers, compliance experts, licensing specialists, and go-to-market strategists to guide crypto companies from jurisdictional strategy through licensing and ongoing compliance.

Core services include VASP and MiCA licensing (CASP authorization), company formation, FinTech and gambling licensing, AML/KYC compliance programmes, and bank account opening assistance.

For more information: Visit website

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Bitcoin Builds Momentum Above $80K With $85K in Sight

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Bitcoin Builds Momentum Above $80K With $85K in Sight

Bitcoin pushed above the $80,000 mark today for the first time this year before pulling back to a critical support zone.

Meanwhile, at press time, Bitcoin is still above $80,000, gathering momentum to push higher. According to analysts, market structure and derivatives data now shape what comes next.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin briefly broke above $80K before pulling back to the key $78.4K support level.
  • Over 118,000 traders were liquidated, with losses totaling $508.57 million in one day.
  • Analysts say holding $78.4K is crucial, as it forms the base for any continued upside.
  • If support holds, Bitcoin could target $85K; if not, the price may revisit the $75K zone.

Veteran Trader on Bitcoin $80K Breakout

In a tweet today, analyst Sykodelic, a trader with over seven years of experience, noted that Bitcoin returned to the $78,400 level shortly after the $80K run. He describes the $78,400 region as a major higher-timeframe (HTF) structure point.

According to him, this level represents the weekly candle body low of a bullish structure, and importantly, Bitcoin has reclaimed it for two consecutive weeks. That reclaim is now the foundation for any continuation higher.

Sykodelic's chart
Sykodelic’s chart

Bitcoin Liquidations Shake the Market After $80K Push

The move to $80,000 triggered a wave of new long positions, many of which were quickly wiped out during the pullback. Specifically, over the past day, 118,800 traders were liquidated, losing $508.57 million, according to CoinGlass data.

This move follows a sharp drop in open interest, signaling forced liquidations. Sykodelic says this kind of move typically points to one of two scenarios.

Either the drop was a deliberate liquidity sweep to flush out late long traders before continuing upward, or the initial breakout itself was a trap to liquidate short sellers before a deeper move down.

This uncertainty leaves Bitcoin at a decision point.

What Needs to Happen Next

For the bullish trend to continue, the analyst highlights a few key signals.

First, Bitcoin must hold firmly above $78,400. Losing it could shift short-term momentum.

Second, the Coinbase premium, a measure of U.S. buying pressure, is close to flipping positive. A confirmed move above zero would suggest renewed institutional demand.

Third, spot market volume has remained steady throughout the recent rally. Continued strength here would support organic buying rather than leverage-driven moves.

Finally, open interest should begin to climb gradually. A slow increase suggests healthy positioning, while a rapid spike could signal overcrowded trades and increase the risk of another flush.

$85K in Target if Support Holds

Sykodelic maintains a bullish outlook, pointing to Bitcoin’s resilience despite multiple opportunities to show weakness.

In his view, the $73,000 to $75,000 range represents the likely downside floor if a deeper correction occurs.

However, as long as $78,400 holds, he expects Bitcoin to begin targeting higher resistance levels, including the daily 200 EMA and the weekly 50 EMA, which sit near $85,000.

Meanwhile, if the level fails, attention shifts back to $75,000 as the next major support zone.

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