The current Bitcoin market cycle may be about more than price action. 

According to CryptoQuant author Kripto Mevsimi, on-chain data shows that 2024 and 2025 recorded the largest release of long-term Bitcoin supply in the asset’s history.

The analysis focuses on “revived supply,” meaning Bitcoin that remained untouched for more than two years before moving. These coins typically belong to long-term holders and tend to move only during major market shifts, not short-term price swings.

Notably, the amount of revived supply in this cycle is larger than that observed in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets.

Not a Typical Bull Market Pattern

Unlike past cycles, when long-term Bitcoin supply moved amid heavy speculation and strong price rallies, the current revival is unfolding under different conditions.

Kripto Mevsimi notes that this supply is moving with less market hype and involves a significant number of older coins. This suggests the activity is not driven by short-term traders but by long-term holders reassessing their Bitcoin positions.

From an on-chain perspective, this makes the current cycle structurally different from previous market peaks.

Long-Term Holders Reassess, New Buyers Step In

The data suggests Bitcoin ownership is gradually shifting. Early holders, who focused on halvings, self-custody, and long-term scarcity, are selling to a new group of buyers.

These new participants are more driven by price action, macroeconomic conditions, and liquidity than by long-term ideology. As a result, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are changing, altering how future market cycles unfold.

Early 2026 Shows Moderation, Not a Full Reversal

While revived long-term supply has cooled slightly in early 2026 compared to the peaks in 2024–2025, the trend has not fully reversed. Kripto Mevsimi cautions that it is still too early to determine whether this slowdown signals temporary exhaustion or the beginning of a new accumulation phase.

More clarity should emerge as the year progresses and on-chain activity evolves.

This analysis comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle, particularly amid macroeconomic pressure. BTC is trading at $88,800, down 1.15% over the past day. The weakness has persisted since October, when Bitcoin peaked at $126,200 and has since declined by more than 30%.

Global Risk Weighs on Bitcoin Price

According to XWIN Research, Bitcoin’s recent declines are largely driven by rising global macroeconomic risk rather than crypto-specific weakness. The firm links the downturn to U.S. tariff pressures under President Trump, which have weighed on investor risk appetite since 2025.

XWIN notes that tariffs can hurt corporate earnings, raise inflation uncertainty, and tighten monetary expectations—conditions that typically prompt investors to reduce exposure to risk assets. As a result, Bitcoin has fallen alongside equities during periods of elevated trade tension.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below a crucial market sentiment gauge and has failed to reclaim it, further piling pressure on its price.

The crypto market leader has corrected over 4% so far this week, relinquishing all the gains from the previous week. This correctional move has ensured it stays below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile, a key market sentiment indicator.

Key Points

• Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile at around $95,000 and has failed to reclaim this level.
• The 0.75 quantile line shows the cost basis of 75% of Bitcoin’s supply.
• A drop below highlights that over 25% of the asset’s supply is underwater, as investors procured it at higher prices.
• The 0.75 cost distribution quantile is a crucial indicator of a bear market and signals a deep correction when Bitcoin falls below it.
• Interestingly, analysts also associate Bitcoin’s price trend below the key quantile as a potential bottom.

Bitcoin Trends Below Key Level

Glasnode data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile at around $95,000 and has failed to reclaim that price level. The market intelligence platform highlighted this in a Thursday tweet using the supply quantiles cost basis model.

The model showed the prices where different percentages of Bitcoin were acquired, helping identify areas of accumulation and distribution. Notably, the metric has four major trendlines: the Bitcoin price and the 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75 quantiles.

The 0.75 quantile line shows the cost basis of 75% of Bitcoin’s supply. Typically, this is a key sentiment gauge, and a drop below highlights that over 25% of the asset’s supply was bought at a higher price.

Meanwhile, the 0.85 and 0.95 quantiles show the cost basis for a more moderate number of holders. If BTC trades above the 0.95% quantile, it suggests that fewer than 5% of holders are unprofitable, indicating a late-stage bullish market phase.

What Does the Trend Below the 0.75 Quantile Mean? 

The 0.75 cost distribution quantile is a crucial indicator of a bear market. When Bitcoin drops below this level, it indicates the market is in a deep correction.

The longer Bitcoin stays below, the more bearish market sentiment becomes. Furthermore, as more holders panic and sell their stash, the further the chances of steeper price declines.

Glassnode confirmed that this brings more distribution pressure and creates market conditions where bears are on top. However, this changes once Bitcoin reclaims the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile.

Interestingly, analysts also associate Bitcoin’s price trend below the key quantile as a potential bottom. The market usually forms a bottom below this level, as seen in 2023 when Bitcoin started an uptrend that endured until the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200.

To reclaim the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, Bitcoin would have to rise by 6.2% from the current market standing. Notably, there is no guarantee this will happen, as the market remains weak and is plagued by macroeconomic uncertainties.

While Bitcoin faces sustained bearish pressure, data confirms that the leverage ratio on Binance futures has increased to November 2025 highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to regain momentum since reaching a high of $97,939 on Jan. 14, as geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty continue to dampen investor sentiment. In the days that followed this peak, BTC closed lower in six out of seven sessions, resulting in an 8.6% drop from the January high. 

Despite this, recent derivatives data on Binance suggest that trader behavior is changing, with leverage gradually returning to the market. However, this pattern leaves the market more sensitive to sharp price movements in either direction.

Key Points

• Bitcoin has recorded six losing days out of seven since Jan. 14, now down 8.6% from its $97,939 peak.
• Amid the downturn, data confirms leverage is returning to the market, with the estimated leverage ratio climbing to its highest level since November 2025.
• Elevated leverage shows increased risk-taking and raises the likelihood of sharp price swings driven by liquidations.
• Historical data confirms that spikes in leverage have coincided with sharp upswings in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Leverage Ratio on Binance Hits November 2025 Highs

Arab Chain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, confirmed the recent increase in the leverage ratio. According to CryptoQuant data, the estimated leverage ratio climbed to roughly 0.184, marking its highest reading since November 2025. Notably, this confirms a renewed willingness among traders to take on risk after a period of more restrained positioning.

In his analysis, Arab Chain explained that the estimated leverage ratio shows how much borrowed capital traders are using to maintain futures positions. An increase in this ratio indicates that a larger share of positions relies on leverage rather than spot capital. 

He noted that the current rise points to a growing risk appetite, particularly among short-term traders and speculators. Historically, similar leverage levels have often appeared during phases of price expansion, when fresh liquidity flows into derivatives markets and helps push prices higher.

What Could This Mean for Future Price Action?

However, the analyst stressed that higher leverage introduces greater fragility into the market. Specifically, when traders rely heavily on borrowed funds, even mild price swings can lead to forced liquidations. 

As a result, periods of elevated leverage tend to increase the likelihood of sharp and sudden price movements. In this environment, both strong rallies and abrupt pullbacks can become more intense as liquidations accelerate market moves.

However, Arab Chain warned against seeing the rising leverage ratio as a negative signal on its own. Instead, he emphasized that it may be part of a broader transition from caution toward renewed confidence. 

If Bitcoin continues to move sideways without experiencing steep declines, the existing leverage could act as fuel for a renewed upward move. On the other hand, if price momentum fades, the market may face additional rounds of deleveraging before the larger trend resumes.

Historical Context

Historical data further confirms the close relationship between leverage and price action. Chart data shows that spikes in the estimated leverage ratio have frequently occurred alongside rises in Bitcoin’s price, while declines in the indicator have tended to coincide with price drops.

In early June 2025, the leverage ratio hovered around 0.165 as Bitcoin traded between $108,000 and $110,000. When Bitcoin slipped below $100,000 in late June, the ratio fell to about 0.15. 

The subsequent recovery in July, which saw Bitcoin climb toward $120,000, occurred alongside a rebound in the leverage ratio to above 0.185. Meanwhile, during July’s consolidation phase, with prices holding between $118,000 and $120,000, the indicator remained relatively stable in the 0.17 to 0.18 range.

However, the conditions changed in early October 2025, when the leverage ratio dropped to 0.145. Soon after, Bitcoin’s price fell to around $106,000 by mid-October and then declined further to a low of $80,000 by November 2025.

Since reaching that bottom, both the leverage ratio and Bitcoin’s price have trended upward. Specifically, as the indicator continues its gradual rise, Bitcoin has recovered from the $80,000 low and is now trading at $89,450, though price swings remain pronounced.