Following a bearish symmetrical triangle breakout to the downside, an analyst has identified where XRP needs to reclaim to restore bullishness. 

Last month and earlier this month, the XRP market was predominantly bullish, with XRP holding firm above the $3 psychological price. As a result, most analysts, including EGRAG Crypto, leaned toward a bullish bias. 

XRP Breaks Down from Symmetrical Triangle 

EGRAG confirmed this bias in a previous analysis from Sept. 13, in which he identified a symmetrical triangle that XRP had formed since the drop from the $3.66 peak in July. At the time, EGRAG confirmed a 50/50 chance of a breakout to the upside or downside, but he leaned toward the upside.

As September came to a close and the market slipped into the “Uptober” phase, XRP’s technicals looked stronger than ever until Oct. 10 when the broader crypto market witnessed an unexpected flash crash, leading to XRP breaking toward the downside, as it briefly slumped below the $2 psychological mark.

Despite a quick recovery above the $2 level, XRP remained below the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle, struggling to even recover the mid-point of the $2 mark. Amid the current market realities, EGRAG recently provided an update to his September analysis.

According to him, what he expected to be the breakout of the symmetrical triangle was a “total failure.” He confirmed that while he leaned toward an upward breakout, the possibility of a breakout to the downside was always there.

Levels to Watch Out for

Now that the downward breakout has occurred, EGRAG identified three important price levels that investors must watch. Specifically, the first level is what he calls XRP’s “critical support.” The analyst pointed out that this support rests on the $2.20 level. He warned that XRP must not close below this price on the 3-day timeframe. 

Meanwhile, EGRAG also called attention to a level he referred to as “the bullish signal.” According to him, this area rests between $2.55 and $2.65. EGRAG emphasized that if XRP ever records a close above this range on the 3-day timeframe, it would send a bullish signal. 

Beyond this area, the analyst identified the final level that could confirm an imminent XRP rally to new all-time highs. In particular, EGRAG noted that breaking above the $3.2 to $3.4 area would set the stage for a rally toward new highs. Notably, the last time XRP saw this level was in early August.

While the analyst failed to explicitly highlight any new ATHs, his chart projected a run to $4.2 for when XRP secured an upward breakout from the symmetrical triangle. Meanwhile, EGRAG has also persistently suggested that XRP could be on the path to a $27 price, representing a 997% increase from the current price of $2.46.

An XRP community pundit recently estimated how much buy pressure would clear out the leftover retail XRP holdings.

Following reports suggesting that Ripple is leading a fundraising effort to buy up to $1 billion worth of XRP, discussions around an imminent XRP supply shock have resurfaced within the community.

Retail Investors in Focus as Ripple Proposes $1B XRP Buyback

For context, Bloomberg reported last week that Ripple was looking to raise $1 billion for the establishment of an XRP treasury, with plans to leverage some of the XRP tokens in its escrow. Expectedly, the report triggered excitement among XRP proponents, leading to several speculative discussions, with the supply shock theory being one of them.

Following the report, an XRP proponent called attention to a previous projection by community figure Baba Cugs. In this projection, Baba Cugs speculated that the first step toward a meteoric XRP price surge would be clearing out retail investors.

Notably, several XRP community pundits have suggested that as institutional investors troop into the XRP market on the back of regulatory clarity, retail investors have been selling their tokens to these institutions. As a result, retail holdings have drastically reduced. Alpha Lions Academy founder Edoardo Farina even insisted that retail is gradually being priced out.

Meanwhile, a community expert who calls himself XRP Liquidity has continued to track retail holdings, suggesting that this class of investors currently only holds 500 million to 1.9 billion XRP tokens. On the back of discussions around an exhaustion of the retail supply, he noted that it would take more than the proposed $1 billion buy from Ripple.

How Much Would It Take to Clear Out XRP Retail

For context, at the current price of $2.43, it will take $1.2 billion to clear out retail investors if they hold 500 million XRP, and about $4.617 billion if they hold 1.9 billion tokens. However, it would not be this straightforward, as not all retail investors would sell at this price.

Instead, the expert estimated that most retail investors could first start selling off their holdings at $5, possibly to take profits. He estimated that at this $5 price, $1 billion would only purchase 200 million XRP tokens. Meanwhile, if others decide to sell their tokens at $7.5, this same $1 billion would procure 133.33 million XRP.

Further, if another set of retail investors chooses to take profit at $10, a similar $1 billion investment would buy 100 million XRP. Notably, at $15, the same $1 billion fund will amass 66.6 million XRP. Meanwhile, if other retail investors decide to sell off their holdings at $20, another $1 billion investment would buy 50 million XRP.

Together, institutions like Ripple would need to spend $5 billion to buy 550 million XRP from retail holders for prices ranging from $5 to $20. However, the analyst confirmed that if retail investors hold 1.9 billion instead, then institutions would need $17.7 billion to clear out all of retail. Nonetheless, this is only if all retail investors choose to sell.

Notably, according to Baba Cugs, once institutional buyouts have cleared retail investors, the XRP price could witness “one giant leap” overnight. Also, XRP Liquidity projected in a previous commentary that institutions could push the XRP price to $20 to entice retail investors to sell.

XRP has the potential to reach higher prices if IoT devices leverage its platform, potentially running 100 million transactions daily.

Currently, XRP trades around $2.4, yet some investors argue that it trades below its true value. They believe the token could reach its real potential with growing adoption and expanding utility. 

Notably, one area the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could see better utility is in an integration with the Internet of Things (IoT), a growing sector that connects billions of smart devices globally.

What are IoT Devices?

For the uninitiated, IoT devices are physical objects embedded with sensors, software, and connectivity that allow them to collect and exchange data over the internet. They include smart thermostats, wearable health trackers, industrial sensors, and connected vehicles. 

These devices enable automation, monitoring, and efficiency across homes, industries, healthcare systems, and smart cities. However, despite their benefits, IoT networks face concerns about security and privacy, which blockchain technology could help address.

As of 2025, there are roughly 19.8 billion connected IoT devices around the world. Interestingly, analysts expect this figure to soar beyond 31 billion by 2030 and exceed 40 billion by 2034. 

This growth would translate to more devices and also an increase in global transaction potential. Depending on the use case, each device can send hundreds of messages per day. For instance, in Microsoft’s Azure IoT Hub environment, a single device may publish up to 300 messages daily. Altogether, IoT systems collectively generate hundreds of millions of terabytes of data every single day.

How Could Blockchain Improve the Sector?

Meanwhile, blockchain technology presents a way for IoT devices to improve by carrying out secure, decentralized transactions. These could range from financial payments and automated smart contracts to trusted data sharing and authentication. 

For instance, through smart contracts, devices could autonomously pay for services such as electricity the moment consumption is recorded. Blockchain can also allow devices to store and share verified data for tamper-proof records, a trend from supply chain tracking. 

Additionally, connected cars could make instant micropayments for tolls or charging sessions using digital currencies. Also, blockchain-based identity verification could further strengthen network security by ensuring only authorized devices participate.

While networks like IOTA’s Tangle are already exploring this, the XRP Ledger’s scalability and low transaction cost make it a promising candidate for powering IoT transactions. However, it remains uncertain how such large-scale adoption might influence XRP’s price.

XRP Price if IOT Devices Run 100M XRPL Transactions Daily

To assess this, we asked Google Gemini what might happen if IoT devices executed up to 100 million daily transactions on the XRPL, using XRP as the gas token. At the time of the question, XRP traded for $2.43.

According to Gemini, such a surge in network activity would likely trigger an unprecedented demand shock for XRP, potentially leading to a dramatic price increase. The chatbot explained that the outcome would come from two major effects of XRPL’s fee mechanism: accelerated token burning and higher utility-driven demand.

Gemini calculated that if 100 million transactions occurred daily, the minimum burn rate of 0.00001 XRP per transaction would destroy about 1,000 XRP every day, or 365,000 XRP per year. However, this number appears low next to the 59 billion XRP currently in circulation. 

Besides deflation, Gemini noted that such transaction levels would mean immense real-world utility. Companies and institutions would need to purchase large quantities of XRP to facilitate machine-to-machine payments, leading to liquidity shortages on exchanges and intensified buy pressure. The result could be an exponential rise in XRP’s market price.

In its bullish projection, Gemini estimated that XRP could reach between $150 and $500 per token if it became an important part of a global IoT payment network handling 100 million transactions daily.