Dan Gambardello, a well-known crypto analyst and long-time Cardano supporter, recently explained when he plans to start selling his ADA holdings.
In his recent analysis, Gambardello said he will handle this cycle differently from the last one. In 2021, he mostly held through upswings, but this time he plans to talk openly about selling and taking profits. According to him, preparation is everything, and investors should have a clear plan before markets take off.
How the Risk Score Determines Cardano Exit Points
Notably, the market analyst bases his strategy on a “risk score” that runs from zero to one hundred. For context, scores between 25 and 50 signal moderate risk, 50 to 75 mark high risk, and 75 to 100 show extreme risk.
Gambardello confirmed that in past cycles, both Ethereum and Cardano reached major turning points when they hit 75. For instance, Ethereum topped out just weeks after reaching that level two cycles ago. Meanwhile, in 2021, it marked the beginning of months of volatility leading up to the final high.
The analyst believes Cardano shows a similar pattern. He described 75 as the best point to start scaling out of ADA, although it has previously climbed higher. Notably, in the last bull run, ADA’s risk hit 86, while two cycles ago it climbed to 93. Still, Gambardello sees 75 as the most reliable level to start selling.
Right now, Cardano sits at a risk score of 36, which he classifies as a “moderate buy.” This puts ADA in a pre-bull market phase. However, Gambardello warned that the change to higher risk levels can happen quickly.
For instance, two cycles ago, Cardano jumped from a score of 34 to 76 in only a few weeks, while its price shot from about $0.09 to nearly $0.59. He said investors should expect this kind of speed again and prepare their exits before the market accelerates.
The $1 to $3 Range for Long-Term Cardano Buyers
He also pointed out that holders do not need to wait for 75 before taking profits. Particularly, for long-term ADA buyers, the $1 to $3 range is already an ideal spot to sell portions of their holdings.
Many investors accumulated at much lower prices, and securing gains between $1.40 and $2.00 makes sense after years of waiting. Gambardello said he will likely do the same, using that range to lock in profits even before higher alerts trigger.
However, he noted that his most exciting moment would be the moment Cardano breaks above its all-time high of $3.1, attained in September 2021. Once ADA clears the $3 mark, Gambardello said he will focus on how price interacts with the risk score.
Notably, if the risk level pushes toward 75 as ADA hits new highs, this will act as his strongest signal to sell aggressively. He noted that history shows ADA rarely sustains momentum once it enters that risk zone. However, Gambardello had predicted a possible run to $10.
For additional context, he compared ADA’s setup with Ethereum’s. Currently, Ethereum carries a risk score of 49, but in past cycles it has climbed to 75 in a matter of weeks. This same burst of speed could also apply to ADA, which is why he places so much importance on planning ahead.
Essentially, Gambardello noted that discipline matters more than emotion. He plans to take some profits between $1 and $3, but once Cardano hits a risk score of 75, he will start selling in a structured way. He urged investors to set up their own plans now instead of waiting for the rally.
