Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that the upcoming executive order from Donald Trump could unlock significant capital inflows into Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Novogratz made the remarks in a live interview with CNBC, saying Donald Trump’s recent comments supporting crypto investments in 401(k) retirement plans could unlock a massive influx of capital into the digital asset space.

President Donald Trump to Sign Executive Order to Expand 401(k)

President Donald Trump is expected to sign a new executive order that would permit retirement accounts like 401(k)s to include alternative investments such as crypto, private equity, and real estate. The order directs the Labor Secretary to review fiduciary rules under ERISA to ease private market investments in retirement accounts.

Traditionally excluded due to higher fees and lockup periods, private assets have gained traction in pensions and endowments and have seen limited acceptance in 401(k)s since 2020.

This move is a win for the alternative asset industry, with firms like BlackRock and Empower already planning to introduce private investments in retirement funds. 

A Potential Gateway for Trillions in Retirement Savings to Bitcoin

The 401(k) system is one of the largest retirement savings vehicles in the United States, with over $8.7 trillion in assets under management.

Allowing cryptocurrencies in these plans could significantly increase exposure for long-term investors. For many Americans, 401(k)s are their primary means of retirement investment. 

Novogratz believes this policy shift would offer a direct path for retail and institutional investors to participate in the crypto market through regulated and tax-advantaged channels. He explained that as crypto investment options become more accessible through familiar financial institutions like Fidelity or T. Rowe Price, broader participation in the digital asset ecosystem is likely to follow.

Expanding Access Through Public Equity and Treasury Platforms

Beyond Trump’s proposal, Novogratz highlighted how treasury firms and publicly traded companies are playing a growing role in expanding access to cryptocurrencies. He explained that a broader range of financial channels is now enabling more investors to enter the market.

He emphasized that public equity markets, which are significantly larger than the current crypto market, are providing new on-ramps for investors. As more publicly traded firms integrate crypto into their business models, capital from institutional investors will continue to flow into the space at an accelerated pace.

Bull Market Momentum and Policy Implications

Novogratz confirmed that the crypto industry is currently in a bull market. However, he cautioned that bull cycles do not last forever and that investors should take advantage of favorable conditions while they persist.

He also pointed out that the alignment of political support, like Trump’s policy comments, with market trends could create a strong tailwind for crypto adoption across both Wall Street and Main Street.

Notably, Novogratz had earlier predicted that Bitcoin would surpass gold and reach $1 million per coin, driven by rising institutional adoption and shifting investor preferences. He pointed to BlackRock’s Bitcoin Trust and a broader move away from the U.S. dollar as key catalysts. 

Following these positive developments, the Bitcoin price jumped to $116,297, a 2.0% rise in the past day. Similarly, Ethereum trades $3,824, a 6.3% rise in the past day.

Ethereum Gains Momentum Through Institutional Products

Turning to Ethereum, Novogratz described its investment story as distinct from Bitcoin’s. While Bitcoin is often viewed as digital gold and a hedge against government debt, Ethereum is gaining traction as the underlying infrastructure for decentralized applications and stablecoins.

He said that firms like ConsenSys and Fundstrat have created Ethereum-focused treasury companies, offering public market investors access to staking, lending, and derivative products. As more capital flows into these platforms, Ethereum’s price continues to rise.

A recent Glassnode report indicates that the current Bitcoin trend around its STH cost basis mirrors mid-bull cycle behaviors.

Notably, Bitcoin has faced pressure since falling from its all-time high of $123,000 in mid-July. Specifically, it dropped to $111,000 at the start of August before bouncing back above $116,000. 

While the recovery has helped stabilize sentiment, investors still wonder whether the bull run has peaked. In its latest report, Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode suggested that the market remains in bullish territory, and that the current pullback doesn’t signal the end of the cycle.

Bitcoin Sitting Well Above the STH Cost Basis

Glassnode highlighted the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis in its report. For the uninitiated, this figure tracks the average price paid by traders who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days. Right now, the cost basis sits at $106,100. 

Bitcoin continues to trade above this level, which historically separates bullish conditions from bearish ones. Glassnode believes this setup resembles the kind of structure seen in the middle of a bull market, even if the recent drop adds some short-term risk.

The accompanying chart supports this commentary. Specifically, Bitcoin climbed back above the STH cost basis in April 2025, after staying below it during a dip earlier in the year. This correction, which started in late February, pushed Bitcoin below $90,000. It stayed under pressure until April, when buyers stepped back in and pushed prices higher. 

Before the drop, Bitcoin first broke above the STH cost basis during this bull run in late 2024, shortly after Donald Trump’s election victory. The rally lifted the price past $100,000, and Bitcoin held above $90,000 and $100,000 until the February setback. As of now, Bitcoin trades around $116,359, well above the $106,100 threshold.

However, even with this strong position, Bitcoin still struggles to move past the average entry price of recent short-term top buyers, another important metric. This figure sits at $116,900. Glassnode warned that failing to break above this level could extend the current sideways movement or even trigger another drop back toward $110,000.

$BTC is struggling to reclaim the cost basis of short-term top buyers (~$116.9k). Remaining below this level raises the probability of extended consolidation or further correction toward the lower $110k region. pic.twitter.com/s72AcA5e9S

— glassnode (@glassnode) August 7, 2025

Bitcoin Seeing Accumulation, but Needs Higher Pressure to Form Solid Base

In another analysis, the firm confirmed that over the past 15 days, both whales, those holding over 10,000 BTC, and small holders with less than 1 BTC have steadily added to their positions. .

This behavior shows that both large and retail investors used the dip to accumulate more Bitcoin. Still, Glassnode reminded investors that this trend comes from a 15-day moving average, so it may not fully capture the latest changes in the market.

Glassnode also revealed that buyers picked up about 120,000 BTC during the recovery from $112,000 to $114,000. This shows clear interest at those levels. However, Bitcoin’s supply between $110,000 and $116,000 remains thin, so the market needs more consistent buying in that range to build solid support.

Further, Swissblock, another market research firm, confirmed that the market remains strong. It described the correction as a necessary pause, not a sign of deeper weakness. 

This correction is a healthy cooldown, not structural weakness.

Net Realized PnL is dropping sharply, selling intensity is low.
SOPR is drifting lower, not collapsing, investors are taking profits, not exiting in fear: they want to sell higher.

This is a constructive reset. pic.twitter.com/OEAal2vCUj

— Swissblock (@swissblock__) August 5, 2025

The firm noted that Net Realized Profit and Loss has dropped sharply, while selling pressure remains low. It also pointed out that SOPR continues to drift lower, not collapse. This suggests people are locking in gains without panic selling. According to Swissblock, investors still aim to sell at higher prices, which shows confidence in the broader uptrend.

While optimism remains high for Bitcoin to break new peaks, a new analysis suggests the top may already be in, and the journey to $1 million could be delayed.

This outlook comes from a long-term Elliott Wave analysis by More Crypto Online. While he acknowledges that Bitcoin is on track to reach $1 million, the analyst believes this will happen in the next major market cycle following a significant correction expected after 2028.

Bitcoin Current Position According to Elliott Wave Theory

According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s current price action is showing signs of nearing a major local top. The forecast, built on the 1-week BTC chart, suggests Bitcoin is completing Wave 3 of a larger five-wave structure.

The chart identifies a possible “Long-Term Top” forming between $107,600 and $123,000 for the current sub-wave. From this range, the analyst anticipates a dip toward $50,000, before a final push upward.

From there, the wave structure could see Bitcoin extend to new local highs between $133,691 and $189,882 by 2026–2027. These figures align with Fibonacci extensions (223.6% to 261.8%).

For context, Bitcoin reached $123,200 last month and has since pulled back to $111,943. It now trades above $116,000, but the analyst warns of a possible near-term dip, followed by a dramatic rise of up to 63% before the bullish phase concludes.

Severe Correction Into 2028 

Following the projected peak, the analyst expects a deep Wave 4 correction that could last into 2028. Fibonacci retracement levels place this correction zone within $56,354 (38.2%), $44,083 (50%), $34,484 (61.8%), and $24,310 (78.6%).

In perspective, a retracement to $56,000 would represent a 51% decline from current levels. The more extreme target of $24,310 suggests a possible 79% crash.

Such steep corrections are not unprecedented. Bitcoin dropped from $69,000 in 2021 to $15,000 in 2022. This supports the analyst’s view that brutal retracements often precede new market cycles.

Final Parabolic Wave Could Push BTC Past $1 Million

After the correction, the analysis predicts Wave 5, the final leg of the Elliott cycle, could drive Bitcoin into its most explosive phase yet. The projected Fibonacci extension targets include:

• $332,000 (100%)
• $682,000 (123.6%)
• $1,059,000 (138%)
• $2.19 million (161.8%)

Essentially, the analysis argues that Bitcoin could reach $1 million or more, but in the early 2030s, once the next halving and bear market play out.

Counter Perspectives

While many in the crypto industry agree that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, not everyone supports the idea of a severe drawdown to $24,000.

Michael Saylor, for instance, recently stated that a “crypto winter is not coming back,” citing institutional demand. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also suggested the traditional bull-bear cycle is broken, thanks to increased long-term holding and institutional inflows.

These counterpoints suggest that while temporary dips may occur, massive retracements like those in past cycles may not repeat, especially with large buyers now supporting the market.