Ali Martinez, a well-known market analyst, questions why traders would bet against Dogecoin, citing its historical penchant for rapid growth.

His latest commentary has become necessary amid the persistent market uncertainty, with Dogecoin (DOGE) performing woefully. For context, since reaching a yearly peak of $0.4341 on Jan. 18, DOGE has continued to witness lower highs.

Over the past ten days, Dogecoin has recorded eight ones in the red, down nearly 25% from the Jan. 18 peak. Notably, this discouraging performance has exacerbated bearish sentiments around DOGE, but analysts like Martinez believe it is not advisable to bet against the meme coin. 

“How do you bet against Dogecoin,” the seasoned market watcher questioned, calling attention to its historical penchant for rapid growth within short periods of time. According to Martinez, DOGE has the potential to replicate its 2021 run, when, at a time, it soared 900% within 48 hours.

Dogecoin Rallied Nearly 900% in 48 Hours

For context, the analyst was making reference to Dogecoin’s impressive performance in January 2021, exactly four years ago. The leading meme coin rallied from an opening price of $0.00750 on Jan. 28, 2021, to a peak of $0.0736 the next day. Remarkably, this represented a surge of 881% within two days, with a 340% intraday gain on Jan. 28 alone.

Interestingly, this rapid spike came on the back of a bearish consolidation phase at the time. Notably, between Jan. 3 and Jan. 27, 2021, DOGE faced bearish pressure, similar to the current market condition. The asset, which traded for $0.0106 on Jan. 3, saw persistent lower highs until it dropped to $0.0073 on Jan. 27.

At the time, bearish sentiments dominated the scene, but the sudden 881% upsurge flipped Dogecoin’s fortunes in a moment’s notice. Ali Martinez believes the meme coin could replicate this run, advising traders not to bet against it.

Market Cap Constraints?

However, critics believe this is unlikely, citing a difference between the market condition in 2021 and today. For one, Dogecoin’s market cap was about $935 million on Jan. 28, 2021, making it fairly easier to trigger a massive price spike with a relatively lower capital influx.

These critics point to the current valuation of $48.48 billion as an obstacle to such a rapid upsurge. However, Martinez, who has always argued that market cap metrics do not matter, disagreed. He posed a previous question about XRP’s larger market cap compared to BlackRock despite the latter having over $11 trillion in AUM.

Notably, while it might require more substantial capital inflow to trigger a 900% rise in Dogecoin’s price today, the prospect of rapid spikes remains feasible. Following Donald Trump’s win, DOGE rallied 159% to $0.4389 within a week, demonstrating its penchant for growth.

Meanwhile, at press time, Dogecoin currently changes hands for $0.3276, having recovered by 2.82% today. A 900% rise from this level, whether within 48 hours or 4 months, would push prices to $3.2. Analyst Scofield believes the $3 mark is possible for DOGE, arguing it is only a matter of time before it materializes.

Dogecoin price could appreciate by over ten-fold if the meme coin attracts only 10% of Bitcoin ETF inflows after securing ETF products.

Notably, in the wake of successes of Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), leading asset managers are now exploring ETF wrappers for other crypto assets. Currently, Dogecoin is one of the top candidates for this movement, attracting considerable attention.

Asset Managers File for Dogecoin ETFs

Earlier, Wintermute predicted that a top assets management firm would file for a Dogecoin ETF this year. Recently, asset manager Bitwise registered a statutory trust for a Dogecoin ETF with Delaware’s Department of State’s Division of Corporations. 

In addition, REX Advisers and Osprey Funds have jointly sought approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an ETF encompassing various meme coins, including Dogecoin.

For context, their filing proposes seven new cryptocurrency ETFs, reflecting a broader industry trend toward diversified crypto investment products. Interestingly, analysts have argued that Dogecoin’s substantial market capitalization makes it a viable candidate for ETF offerings. 

The surge in ETF filings has influenced prediction markets. On Polymarket, the probability of a Dogecoin ETF receiving approval in 2025 rose from 27% earlier in the year to 53% following these developments, before stabilizing at 50% at press time. 

Should such an approval occur, some analysts expect Dogecoin to enjoy similar successes as Bitcoin and Ethereum, but this remains to be seen. Regardless, a substantial amount of capital inflows into the Dogecoin market through these ETFs could have positive implications for prices.

This phenomenon occurred with Bitcoin. Notably, the token hit a new all-time high due to substantial inflows and eventually surpassed the $100,000 mark. For context, Bitcoin ETFs have captured about $39.94 billion in cumulative inflows since launch in January 2024.

Dogecoin Price if It Captures 10% of Bitcoin ETF Inflows

If Dogecoin only witnesses 10% of this success, the impact on its market capitalization could be remarkable. Notably, 10% of the cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows amounts to $3.9 billion. Applying the Bank of America BTC inflow-to-valuation multiplier of 118x would translate to an additional market cap of $460.2 billion from these inflows.

Currently, Dogecoin boasts a market cap of $48.9 billion, making it the eighth-largest crypto asset globally. An additional $460.2 billion in valuation leads to a total market cap of $509.1 billion. Meanwhile, considering Dogecoin’s circulating supply of 147.8 billion tokens translates to a price of $3.44 per DOGE, a 9.4x increase from the current price of $0.331.

However, this valuation approach takes several variables into account that might not fall into place. As a result, it is important to note that the approval of Dogecoin ETFs might not influence similar price dynamics.