Hogan thinks both Ripple and the SEC may get a partial victory.
Attorney Jeremy Hogan, a pro-XRP attorney and partner at Hogan & Hogan, has revealed a theoretical scenario in which Judge Analisa Torres could rule in the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit.
In a tweet yesterday, attorney Hogan explains what the Judge could do if she decides to “split the baby” (an idiomatic expression used to refer to any compromise ruling that gives both parties partial victory.)
A Mixed Ruling
According to Hogan, the Judge could rule that Ripple’s XRP sales since mid-2018 were not securities because the SEC’s own expert conceded that Bitcoin and ETH price movements account for 90% of the asset’s gain within that period.
In this context, a partial victory will be in Ripple’s favor, as the blockchain company will not be penalized for its XRP sales from mid-2018. However, the Judge could rule that Ripple’s transactions before 2018 were securities, with emphasis on the brochure sent by the company to 100 potential clients in 2014.
Based on the move, the defendants could be seen as “offering” the coin to investors. Hogan believes the Judge might order Ripple to pay a fine in this scenario.
A mixed ruling like this would give the parties a 50/50 victory. Notably, the SEC records a partial victory if the Judge rules that Ripple’s XRP sales before mid-2018 are securities. On the other hand, a partial victory will be in Ripple’s favor if the Judge agrees with the expert that Bitcoin and Ethereum’s price movements influenced XRP price gains from mid-2018.
Hogan Explains What’s In It For XRP
Hogan believes the decision would bring enormous benefits for the sixth-largest cryptocurrency.
Firstly, the decision could make XRP the only cryptocurrency with regulatory clarity in the United States.
With XRP getting clarity through the ruling and the SEC accepting that Bitcoin is out of its regulatory purview, Hogan speculated that both crypto assets might eventually become the only supported assets on Coinbase by next year.
What would that possibly mean? Ripple would pay a fine (which, by my calculations it could afford) and move forward with its business and now with XRP being the only crypto with "clarity."
Maybe Coinbase will only be selling Bitcoin and…XRP by next year? 🤔
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) April 7, 2023
Pro-XRP Lawyer Backs SEC’s Claim, But…
Hogan made the comments in response to a recent Twitter thread by Australian-based lawyer Bill Morgan. As reported, Morgan knocked the SEC for insisting that Ripple took several measures to influence the price of XRP despite its expert saying otherwise.
Morgan asserts that the SEC may be correct to allege that investors are relying on Ripple’s efforts to influence XRP. However, these investors are not relying on the company’s business efforts but on the company’s legal expertise in winning the lawsuit against the SEC.
The cryptocurrency community is anticipating the Ripple vs. SEC summary judgment, with many expecting the ruling to come within the first half of 2023, as speculated by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse.
For CryptoLaw founder attorney John Deaton, the ruling may come at any time, as it is becoming difficult to predict the exact date the Judge may rule. He added that the only people who would know the exact date of the ruling are Judge Torres’ staff and other court clerks who helped with her research.
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