Attorney Jeremy Hogan makes an audacious prediction about the ongoing SEC v. Ripple lawsuit, saying that Ripple will win on appeal across all three categories of XRP sales.
The ongoing SEC v. Ripple lawsuit has seen exciting developments over the past week. Notably, the most shocking event is the SEC’s decision to drop its pending claims against Ripple execs Bradley Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen.
Following recent events in the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit, legal experts within the crypto community have been speculating on how the case will end.
It is worth noting that the vast majority of XRP community members forecast that the SEC could settle with Ripple or file an appeal at the Second Circuit. However, not much has been said about the actions Ripple could take after the final judgment.
Ripple to Win Appeal Against SEC
In a surprising development, Attorney Jeremy Hogan made an audacious prediction during an interview on Crypto-Law. He emphasized that the lawsuit will end with Ripple appealing the summary judgment in the Second Circuit.
According to the top lawyer, Ripple will win on appeal using the Blue Sky defense. He speculated that the Second Circuit would agree with Ripple’s Blue Sky defense.
Thus, the blockchain company will “walk away with a big win across all three categories of XRP sales” – institutional, programmatic, and other distributions.
Claims Dismissed Against Ripple Execs: Featuring Jeremy Hogan and a VERY special guest! https://t.co/8sQxUkGN25
— CryptoLaw (@CryptoLawUS) October 24, 2023
Ripple’s Blue Sky Defense
For context, “Blue Sky” is a pre-Securities Act case law. It finds that for a transaction to qualify as an investment contract, it must satisfy three essential prongs: {1) a binding contract between an investor and promoter establishing the investor’s right to an investment. (2) A contract mandating the promoter to conduct post-sale obligations that would be beneficial to the investor. (3) The contract gives the investor the right to share in profits from the promoter’s efforts.
It can be recalled that Ripple, in its summary judgment motion, urged the court to rely on the blue sky law in finding that its XRP sales do not contain the essential ingredients of an investment contract.
However, the court relied on the Howey test in its ruling. Consequently, the court found that Ripple’s institutional sales of XRP constituted an investment contract, but programmatic sales and other distributions did not.
Hogan Says Ripple Has 51% Chance of Winning on Appeal
With Ripple losing to the SEC on the institutional sales category, Attorney Hogan speculated that the blockchain company could appeal that part of the ruling.
He estimated that Ripple has a 51.6% chance of winning the appeal across all three categories of sales using the “Blue Sky” defense. Interestingly, Attorney Hogan’s wife, Thien-Vu Lee, also agreed with this prediction.
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