Renowned market veteran Raoul Pal has recently shared insights on the possibility of XRP and other altcoins decoupling from the market cycles dictated by Bitcoin (BTC).
He discussed this in a recent interview on the latest episode of the CryptoLaw show. Pal essentially highlighted the relationship between the broader crypto market, especially altcoins like XRP and Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin’s price movements.
XRP’s Correlation with Bitcoin
In the interview, CryptoLaw founder and pro-crypto attorney John Deaton pointed out that before the pivotal July 13 ruling from Judge Analisa Torres, he had predicted that XRP would surge to $1 but that it would not hit new highs before a full-blown bull run triggered by Bitcoin.
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Interestingly, XRP surged to $0.93 following the ruling that declared it a non-security. However, the crypto asset quickly retraced these gains in August, as its uptrend received no support from Bitcoin or the broader market.
This event further emphasized the sustained correlation between XRP and Bitcoin’s price movements. Although XRP has decoupled the most from the usual cycle trends, its price remains deeply correlated with the broader market’s direction.
Can XRP Decouple from Bitcoin?
In light of this, Deaton asked Pal about the potential for XRP and other tokens to break free from the Bitcoin influence. Pal noted that such a decoupling would not occur. He emphasized that the Bitcoin cycle serves as the macrocycle, affecting all assets in the market.
Pal argued that this phenomenon is deeply rooted in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, where interest rates were reset to zero, prompting major governments worldwide to issue their debt in a consistent three to five-year sector.
This debt refinancing cycle, according to Pal, is the driving force behind the movements of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and other assets.
Pal suggested that the combination of the four-year market cycle, economic fluctuations, and interest rate creates a synchronized environment where various assets, including XRP and other altcoins, move in unison.
The Macro Cycles
He further broke down the market cycles into what he dubs the “Macro Spring” and “Macro Summer.” The Macro Spring represents the early stages of a bull market when inflation is starting to decline and growth is stabilizing.
During this phase, Bitcoin tends to outperform other assets, akin to the early stages of a bond market rally where treasuries take the lead. As confidence builds and liquidity increases, investors venture further into the risk curve, leading to the onset of the altcoin season.
Pal explained that the current transition from Macro Crypto Spring to Macro Crypto Summer signals the beginning of what market analysts call the alt season. This phase typically starts with high-quality tokens before expanding to include a broader spectrum of cryptocurrencies.
According to Pal, this transition is in progress, and by 2025, he anticipates a surge where “everything goes up ridiculously.” This trend has continued to play out over multiple market cycles.