Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas is confident that the SEC will approve a physically-settled Ethereum ETF application in May 2024.
Following the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot-based exchange-traded funds yesterday, market pundits have predicted the potential date for the approval of a similar product for Ethereum (ETH).
Odds of Ethereum ETF Approval in May Pegged at 70%
Interestingly, Bloomberg intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas speculated that there is a 70% chance the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would approve an Ethereum ETF by May 2024.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said he expects a 70% chance of an Ethereum spot ETF being approved in May. The SEC needs to make approval decisions on multiple Ethereum spot ETF applications by the end of May, including VanEck, Ark 21Shares and Hashdex. Digital asset lawyer…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) January 11, 2024
Balchunas previously noted that the SEC’s decision on Bitcoin spot ETFs would determine whether the regulator would approve a similar fund for ETH.
With the Securities and Exchange Commission approving multiple spot-based Bitcoin ETFs, Balchunas puts the odds of an Ethereum ETF being approved in May at 70%.
Balchunas’ prediction aligns with the deadline that the SEC must decide whether to approve or deny at least one of the Ethereum spot ETF applications. The final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s Ethereum ETF application is May 23, 2024.
New deadline to obsess over just dropped
May 23rd is the final deadline for decision on VanEck’s spot ETH ETF pic.twitter.com/dgi5EVbPeQ
— Will (@WClementeIII) January 10, 2024
Accuracy of Balchunas ETF Predictions
It bears mentioning that Balchunas had been accurate in his predictions on ETF. During an exchange over the weekend, he noted that the odds of the SEC not approving a Bitcoin ETF in January is as low as 5%.
The analyst indirectly put the odds of a Bitcoin ETF being approved in January at 95%. Shortly after his speculation, the SEC approved 11 spot-based Bitcoin ETF applications filed by BlackRock, Ark 21Shares, VanEck, and Valkyrie, among others.
Top Lawyer Says Ethereum ETF Will Launch in Q3
While Balchunas seemed confident that the U.S. could see the first-ever Ethereum ETF in May, pro-crypto lawyer Joe Carlasare believes the SEC’s approval might take longer than expected. Per Carlasare, an Ethereum spot ETF will commence trading on a regulated exchange in Q3 2024.
It is worth noting that multiple asset managers have applied to launch Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States. Ark 21Shares, BlackRock, Grayscale, Hashdex, Invesco Galaxy, and Fidelity are among the asset managers seeking the SEC’s approval for their Ethereum spot ETFs applications.
Before the end of May 2024, the SEC must decide on the applications filed by VanEck, ARK 21Shares, and Hashdex.
The SEC’s decision on Grayscale’s application must come on or before June 18, Invesco Galaxy by July 5, Fidelity Investments by August 3, and BlackRock by August 7. Although these multiple applications have different deadlines, the SEC could approve or deny all of them at once.
At press time, ETH was changing hands at $2,639, up 10.9% over the past 24 hours and 18.2% on the weekly charts.
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