Analysts at Bernstein have released a new Bitcoin price outlook, predicting that the asset would trade at $200,000 by the end of 2025 regardless of the US election outcome.
Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein’s Senior Analyst on crypto assets, made the latest assertion on the US election eve, insisting that the Tuesday event would not impact Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. In a statement to clients, he emphasized that the crypto firstborn’s surge to $200,000 by the end of 2025 is almost programmed.
The analyst based his price call on several critical factors, arguing that “the Bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it is hard to reverse this course.” Chhugani stated that surging US debts, bad monetary decisions, and the growing demand from the US spot exchange-traded funds would drive Bitcoin to the $200,000 price target.
Notably, the brokerage firm called a similar Bitcoin price late last month, noting the six-figure target was conservative. However, the latest commentary suggests that the factors driving the impending price upsurge are so strong that the US election would not be able to sway it.
Expect Short-Term Volatility: Bernstein
Chhugani noted that the global market, including crypto, would experience a short-term price action depending on tomorrow’s election outcome. The market expert reiterated that a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump would spur a break above Bitcoin’s current all-time high of around $74,000 to trade between $80,000 and $90,000.
However, Chhugani changed his earlier stance on Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ win, predicting a softer market reaction. He raised his expectations from between $30,000 and $40,000 to $50,000 before the 2025-end recovery.
Meanwhile, the Polymarket odds between Trump and Harris converged during the weekend. The former president lost his 33% lead over Harris, with the stakes dropping by 15% at 57.9% to 42.1%.
Notably, the lead correction correlated with a Bitcoin downtrend. The pioneering cryptocurrency dropped below $68,000 yesterday before recovering to $69,051. However, it is still down 6.1% from last week’s high at $73,544.
Bitcoin to $200,000 Confirmed?
It bears mentioning that Bernstein is not the first to predict a surge to $200,000 regardless of tomorrow’s election outcome. Notably, prominent multinational bank Standard Chartered also shares a similar narrative.
The bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, predicted that Bitcoin’s push to $200,000 is independent of the US elections. He also cited growing demand and interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve as catalysts for the expected upsurge.
Other industrial leaders also expect Bitcoin to trade at the price mark, with a few targeting at least six figures by the end of next year. Steve Lubka, a Swan Bitcoin executive, asserted a conservative $100,000 for Bitcoin by 2025.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is the only crypto asset expected to see new highs regardless of the outcome of the US election. Chhugani noted that Ethereum and Solana’s price performance depends on the regulatory tone of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which may be decided in the November 5 poll.
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