Several veteran analysts and industry leaders believe a Bitcoin crash to price levels before the Donald Trump victory is possible.
Bitcoin’s remarkable surge from $66,000 on Nov. 4 to an all-time high of $108,000 on Dec. 17 has been followed by massive volatility. The asset has since collapsed to the $96,000 level amid market uncertainty.
As the bearish spell lingers, analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin crashing to the $70,000 range. Notably, he cited his previous analyses and those of other industry veterans to drive home this point.
Market Veterans Insist Deeper Bitcoin Crash Still Possible
He called attention to a commentary from market veteran Tone Vays, who highlighted the importance of the $92,000 range as Bitcoin’s “last line of support.” Vays warned that a breach of this level could lead to a drop to $73,000.
Similarly, Thomas Lee and Mark Newton of Fundstrat foresee a temporary decline before Bitcoin resumes its long-term upward trajectory. Citing Newton, Lee suggested that a dip to the $60,000s is possible before a rally to $250,000 by 2025
Also, Market veteran Michaël van de Poppe previously compared Bitcoin’s performance to historical market patterns, such as the QQQ ETF launch in 1999. He speculated that Bitcoin could mimic this QQQ’s price behavior by spiking to $120,000 in January 2025 before retracing sharply to $60,000.
Interestingly, Peter Brandt also discussed the bearish outlook on Dec. 20, identifying a right-angled broadening triangle in Bitcoin’s chart. Brandt noted that this pattern could align with a test of the $70,000 range, depending on how the market unfolds.
Martinez Warns of Bitcoin’s Delicate Position
Citing these predictions, Martinez suggested that a drop to $70,000 could actually be possible. He issued his initial warning on Dec. 22, identifying a support zone between $97,041 and $93,806.
He argued that if Bitcoin fails to hold within this critical range, a decline to $70,085 is likely, as there is minimal support below this level.
He further supported this view with data showing that market participants had transferred over 33,000 BTC, worth $3.23 billion at the time, to exchanges over a 1-week period, signaling potential sell-off activity.
Some savvy investors appear to be aware of such a bearish scenario, and they have sent over 33,000 #Bitcoin $BTC to exchanges over the past week, valued at more than $3.23 billion!https://t.co/P8BIzqvQP8
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2024
Further, on Dec. 23, Martinez noted that investors realized more than $7.17 billion in Bitcoin profits in a single day, indicating an increase in profit-taking trades as traders moved to secure gains.
The analyst also observed in a previous analysis that Bitcoin had broken below its crucial $97,300 support level. According to him, unless Bitcoin reclaims this zone and closes above $100,000 on the daily chart, the bearish outlook will remain intact.
#Bitcoin $BTC recently broke below one of its most significant support zones at $97,300.
So, for the bearish outlook to be invalidated,#BTC must reclaim this critical area of support and, more importantly, sustain a daily close above $100,000!https://t.co/oaE6S8cP0Q
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2024
Meanwhile, on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, Martinez pointed to a shift in market sentiment. The percentage of Binance traders holding long Bitcoin positions dropped sharply, from 66.73% to 53.60%. This decline indicates waning confidence among investors.
Despite these warnings, Martinez believes that Bitcoin will not be lost. He argues that a recovery above $100,000 could invalidate the bearish scenario and potentially spark a rally to $168,500, based on the Mayer Multiple metric. However, the possibility of a crash remains if the key support zones fail to hold.
Currently, Bitcoin trades for $96,243, up 45% since the Donald Trump election victory. A drop to $70,000 would mark a 27% decline from here. The leading asset gained 0.55% this morning, and the asset is looking to reclaim the $97,000 level.