Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have made a bold prediction regarding the likelihood of XRP ETF receiving approval from the SEC.
In a tweet, Seyffart shared that he and Balchunas recently reviewed the filings for spot crypto ETFs. Based on their analysis, they assigned relatively high odds of approval for various filings.
While there are currently six altcoin ETF filings with the SEC, their focus remains on XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin.
XRP Approval Odds at 65%
Notably, asset managers that have filed S-1 registration statements for XRP ETFs include Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and WisdomTree. These firms have also submitted their Form 19b-4 filings to the SEC via stock exchanges Nasdaq and Cboe.
Meanwhile, at press time, the SEC has yet to acknowledge the 19b-4 filings for these XRP ETFs. Nonetheless, the SEC now has a decision deadline for the XRP ETFs by October 17, 2025.
Based on these factors, Balchunas and Seyffart believe XRP ETFs have just above an average chance of approval this year.
In particular, the Bloomberg analysts are placing a 65% chance on the approval of XRP ETFs. One key factor influencing this perspective is that the SEC does not currently view XRP as a commodity.
Notably, the SEC, under the previous leadership, categorized XRP as a security until a federal court annulled this categorization.
Meanwhile, the Bloomberg analysts are providing more optimistic approval odds for other altcoin ETFs.
Higher Odds of Approval for ETFs of Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Solana
Balchunas and Seyffart give the highest chance of approval to a Litecoin ETF at 90%. Notably, the SEC has acknowledged the 19b-4 filings for Litecoin ETFs and views LTC as a commodity.
A similar situation applies to Dogecoin. While the SEC has yet to acknowledge the 19b-4 filings for DOGE ETFs, the agency views the meme coin as a commodity, earning a 75% chance of approval.
Meanwhile, Balchunas and Seyffart have given Solana ETFs an even higher 70% chance of success even though, like XRP, the SEC does not view Solana as a commodity.
Odds for XRP ETF Approval to Improve
The Bloomberg analysts pointed out that the odds of approval for XRP ETFs could improve if the SEC acknowledges the 19b-4 filings for XRP and Dogecoin, potentially as early as this week.
Additionally, Seyffart mentioned that the SEC, particularly under the Crypto Task Force, will address some of the security and commodity implications from ongoing lawsuits before the end of 2025. He noted that these developments could boost the approval chances for the pending ETF applications.
Notably, on the popular betting portal Polymarket, market expectations give the odds of XRP ETF approval this year at 81%.
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