Nate Geraci, the President of the ETF Store, highlights how dramatic market expectations for spot crypto ETFs have shifted within a year.
In a tweet today, Geraci highlighted how there was no spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Ethereum just a year ago. At the time, several asset managers had filed to launch spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. However, the SEC, under the leadership of Gary Gensler, was reluctant to approve any of the applications.
Amid this, many industry commentators ruled out that spot ETH ETFs had zero chance of approval. This belief stemmed from the SEC’s attempt to label ETH a security following its investigation of Ethereum software development firm ConsenSys.
If the SEC had successfully given ETH the securities tag, it may not have approved an ETF for the coin. However, the SEC’s approach toward the multiple Ethereum ETFs changed by mid-May 2024, as the regulator actively engaged with the applications. It subsequently approved nine spot Ethereum ETFs from multiple asset managers on May 23, 2024.
Major Shift in Market Expectations for Altcoin ETFs
Meanwhile, subsequent filings for altcoin ETFs like Solana emerged, but the SEC refrained from engaging with the applications. The prospective issuers had to withdraw their applications.
Now, under the new SEC leadership, Geraci believes the industry consensus is that the regulator would approve the launch of multiple ETFs tied to blue-chip altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC this year.
This marks a major shift from the industry’s expectations a year ago, before spot Ethereum ETFs went live. So far, several asset managers have applied with the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs exclusively tied to these altcoins.
Latest Approval Odds for XRP, DOGE, LTC, and SOL ETFs
Recent data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shows that the possibility of these altcoin ETFs launching before the end of 2025 has increased drastically since February.
Per the latest data, Litecoin and Solana ETFs have the highest odds of launching this year, with each having a 90% chance. The odds of Litecoin ETFs have remained unchanged since February. However, the approval probability for Solana ETF spiked from 70% to 90% within two months.
Similarly, XRP ETFs’ approval probability also skyrocketed to 85% in the latest data, up from 65% recorded earlier this year. For Dogecoin ETFs, the probability of these funds launching in 2025 currently stands at 80%, marking an increase from 75% in February.
This optimism is driven by the SEC’s view of each altcoin as a commodity rather than a security. The altcoins also have separate CFTC-regulated futures products trading in the market.
Final Deadline
The data also notes that the SEC must approve or disapprove these altcoin ETFs in Q4 2025, specifically by October 2025.
The final decision deadline for Litecoin ETFs is October 2, 2025. On the other hand, the Bloomberg data highlights October 10 as the final deadline for the SEC decision on Solana ETFs. XRP and Dogecoin ETFs have the same decision deadline of October 17, 2025.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
