CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has publicly retracted his previous bearish forecast, citing sustained institutional inflows through Bitcoin ETFs as a major factor redefining the market landscape.
This changing view by the leading analyst comes at a time when Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 psychological resistance, now trading at $103,608.
While Ki had earlier concluded that the bull market had ended, he now attributes his misjudgment to structural changes brought on by large-scale capital movements, particularly from institutional investors.
Capital Inflows Alter Traditional Market Structure
Institutional engagement through ETFs has introduced a new liquidity mechanism in the Bitcoin market, according to Ju. Historically, the Bitcoin cycle revolved around miners, whales, and retail traders.
Once individual capital ran dry, whales typically triggered coordinated sell-offs, leading to rapid market reversals. That cycle often resembled a musical chairs scenario, where late exits resulted in losses for retail participants. However, the current environment, characterized by consistent ETF participation, has disrupted this previous pattern.
Now, ETF issuers, institutional buyers, and entities such as MicroStrategy are active market participants. Ki emphasized that these actors continue to absorb sell-side pressure from whales, resulting in a more stable capital base.
Importantly, Ki noted that market indicators are still at neutral levels, with no definitive signals pointing to a sustained bull or bear phase. Despite this ambiguity, he stressed that the profit-taking cycle has shifted, prompting a need to revisit traditional models of analysis.
On-Chain Models Face Recalibration
Even long-standing on-chain metrics have begun showing signs of reduced predictive power. Ki referenced the Signal 365 MA model, which tracks Bitcoin’s deviation from its 365-day moving average.
Although this model has reliably marked market extremes in the past, it now struggles to align with current price behaviors. Ki acknowledged this limitation and committed to improving the sophistication of CryptoQuant’s analytical tools in response to the changing conditions.
Despite recent misjudgments, Ki reinforced that on-chain data remains valuable when paired with updated interpretations. He also referenced analysts like Minolet, who presented alternative insights during the same period.
ETF Flows And Bullish Prediction
Notably, Ki’s disclosure remains plausible, as Bitcoin ETFs continue to observe massive inflows. The products recorded another day of positive inflows on Thursday. According to data, they added $117 million, slightly down from the $142 million reported the previous day.
However, none of the major ETFs experienced outflows, supporting the view that institutional sentiment remains optimistic.
This continued interest aligns with recent long-term forecasts by Muneeb Ali, founder of Bitcoin Layer 2 platform Starks.
Ali has projected another potential 10x surge in Bitcoin’s value to $1 million, based on prior historical movements. He outlined previous exponential climbs—first from $100 to $1,000 in 2013, then to $10,000 by 2017, and finally to $100,000 by late 2024. These sequential phases, he noted, form a pattern that may extend further if current conditions persist.
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