Matt Hougan, the CIO of asset management firm Bitwise, claims that the traditional four-year crypto cycle trend is dead, forecasting a sustained boom next year.
The Bitwise CIO first made the bold assertion during a discussion with veteran Bitcoin enthusiast Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
He reiterated this point in a follow-up X post, indicating that the drivers of the four-year crypto cycle trend are now weaker. According to him, the legacy drivers of the traditional four-year cycle are Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and blow-up risk.
Drivers of Classic 4-Year Crypto Cycle Now Weaker
The Bitwise CIO stated that the impact of the halving event, which usually occurs every four years, is no longer significant. Previously, the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets have typically skyrocketed several months after the four-year halving event, leading to a full-scale bull run.
However, in recent times, the impact of the Bitcoin halving has become less significant compared to previous events, according to Hougan.
Similarly, he indicated that the interest rate cycle, which has previously been negative for crypto, as observed in 2018 and 2022, now serves as a tailwind for the asset class. According to Hougan, the last major driver of the traditional four-year cycle — the blow-up risk — is no longer effective due to improved regulation.
Bigger Forces Overshadow Previous 4-Year Cycle Drivers
Hougan said bigger forces now overshadow the previous drivers of the traditional four-year cycle. According to him, these forces do not align with the timelines of the past drivers of the four-year cycle.
Topping the list of these “bigger forces” is the flow of assets into crypto-related ETFs. The Bitwise CIO suggested that the wave, which began in 2024, is a five to ten-year trend that will transform how capital flows into the market.
Second, he highlighted increased institutional crypto adoption as another factor overshadowing the previous drivers of the four-year cycle. Hougan claimed that institutional adoption is still in its initial stages, with more crypto-related ETFs being approved as well as endowments and pensions now considering the nascent asset class.
The third new driver trumping those of the previous four-year cycle is the industry’s regulatory progress. Hougan noted that meaningful rule-making, which commenced in January 2025, would linger for multiple years.
Additionally, he stated that following the passage of the GENIUS Act earlier this month, Wall Street is now committed to developing crypto products. He stated that these big banks would invest billions of dollars in the market over the next few years.
Moreover, Hougan highlighted the rise of crypto treasury companies, which are buying and holding BTC on their balance sheets, as a new cyclical threat that demands close attention.
2026 Will be Good for Crypto
Interestingly, he expects these long-term, bigger pro-crypto initiatives to override the forces behind the traditional four-year cycle.
According to Hougan, this new trend could pave the way for a sustained and steady boom beginning next year, rather than a one-off super cycle that occurs only once every four years.
Notably, other industry leaders, such as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju and Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, also share Hougan’s perspective.
While Hougan expects 2026 to be a good year for crypto, he still projects that the market will experience significant volatility along the way.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
