Cardano has broken a long-term descending trendline, with analyst Dan Gambardello noting its risk score has returned to the same level as December 2020, when ADA began its last major rally.
In a video analysis, Gambardello noted that the setup now mirrors that of the earlier period as ADA crossed the $1 mark. As of this press time, Cardano trades at $1.01, an 18.4% surge in the past day, increasing its rally to 35% in the past week.
Cardano’s Current Set-up
A chart shown in the video places ADA above a descending trendline that capped rallies through 2023–2024. Notably, the price sits just below a wide, marked supply zone around $1.
The chart also shows ADA trading above the 50 MA and 200 MA, signaling improving momentum at this timeframe. Gambardello said he was watching for the trendline break and stated, “We did,” referring to the move above $0.532
He also noted that the current setup mirrors the 2020-2021 bulk cycle when Cardano traded below $0.154 in December 2020 before reaching an all-time high of $3.09 in September 2021.
Cardano’s Risk model echoes 2020, is $3 Underway?
Gambardello highlighted ADA’s current risk score of 44, the same as in December 2020. Then, the score climbed from the 40s to the 70s as prices advanced. He stressed the difference in starting points: $0.14 in 2020 versus $0.92 now, suggesting that this current price represents a starting point for Cardano’s bullish cycle.
Gambardello framed ADA as “at the very beginning of some type of move,” while acknowledging uncertainty, saying he could be wrong and that the downside is always considered.
He projected that ADA’s current structure could support a move through the $1 level, with potential to extend toward $3 and beyond. With ADA now trading above $1, Gambardello’s prediction may be underway. A move from this current price to $3 will see Cardano surging by 197%.
Notably, the analyst, in December 2024, predicted Cardano could hit $3 by January 10, 2025, or more cautiously by January 24, citing historical Q4-to-Q1 rally patterns from 2020–2021. While this failed to materialize, his recent forecast aligns with other analysts’ predictions.
Interestingly, analyst Deezy expects ADA to reach $3, noting that Cardano has formed a “golden cross,” a bullish technical signal that occurs when the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA. He noted that the last time this pattern appeared, ADA’s price surged 230%.
Also, based on a recent bullish MACD crossover, analyst Christopher Visser expects Cardano to reach $3.91 in this bull cycle. He mentioned that Cardano’s recent crossover mirrors a past setup that led to a 62% rally.
Broader Market Context
Meanwhile, in his latest analysis, Gambardello pointed to broader signals that, in past cycles, preceded altcoin strength. He said Bitcoin dominance is down about 5% since May 16, while ETH/BTC is up roughly 56%. He cited momentum signals on the dominance chart and noted the dominance risk score is 60 now versus 90s during March 2021.
For Ethereum, he said it is near an all-time high with a risk score of 63, compared with about 80–83 in January 2021 ahead of its prior breakout.
Gambardello also highlighted several favorable factors for altcoins, including potential altcoin ETFs, pro-crypto legislation, and expected interest rate cuts. Institutional involvement, bolstered by spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, has increased market stability compared to prior cycles.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
