Notable crypto commentator Kenny Nguyen has shared his view on where he believes the price of XRP ought to be once spot XRP ETFs go live.
While XRP currently trades around $3, Nguyen expressed conviction in a tweet today that it could reach the high double-digit range. Specifically, he stated that XRP should be between $22 and $50 once the first set of spot XRP ETFs launches.
With XRP trading at $3.11 today, this projection implies a potential rally of 607% to over 1,507%. For perspective, this would give XRP a market cap of between $1.3 trillion and $3 trillion, compared to its current $186 billion.
Why ETF Launch Could Transform XRP’s Valuation
Nguyen’s projection aligns with several analyses suggesting that U.S. approval of spot XRP ETFs could be one of the most significant events in the asset’s history. ETF products provide regulated exposure for institutional and retail investors who may prefer not to hold the asset directly.
Unlike Ethereum, which offers staking rewards that might discourage ETF adoption, XRP has no staking mechanism. This means investors face no opportunity cost when choosing ETF exposure over direct ownership.
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, an XRP ETF applicant, recently shared this perspective in a podcast. McClurg noted that this structural advantage, combined with XRP’s dominance in the payments niche and its global community of millions, strengthens the argument for substantial initial inflows.
XRP Price Scenarios Based on Capital Inflows and Multipliers
As the market awaits the launch of XRP ETFs, various projections from industry figures and models offer insight into XRP’s potential upside.
For instance, McClurg estimates that XRP could attract $5 billion in investment in its first month. Notably, using analyst Dom’s 272x market cap multiplier, this could push XRP’s market cap to $1.546 trillion. This translates to a price of $26 per XRP—within Nguyen’s projected range.
Another model uses a comparison with Bitcoin ETF flows. As previously analyzed by The Crypto Basic, if spot XRP ETFs capture 35% of Bitcoin ETF inflows since launch (around $16.3 billion), and a conservative 100x multiplier is applied, XRP’s market cap could rise to $1.759 trillion, implying a price near $30.
Alternatively, under a more cautious scenario:
- 15% of BTC ETF inflows ($5.85 billion) could push XRP to $12.23
- 30% ($11.7 billion) could raise the price to $22.20 — right at Nguyen’s lower bound.
XRP to Follow Bitcoin’s Trajectory Post-ETF?
Analysts often draw parallels between XRP’s potential and Bitcoin’s performance after its ETF launch in January 2024. Bitcoin initially dipped on launch day but then rallied to new all-time highs above $100,000 within the year as ETFs accumulated over 1 million BTC.
As a result, XRP supporters have speculated that XRP could also break unprecedented price levels if it follows a similar trajectory.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has yet to break its all-time high, despite ETF investments since last year. Momentum only recently shifted with the emergence of multiple ETH treasuries, helping the altcoin approach its 2021 peak.
Ultimately, XRP may chart its own path following an ETF launch and may not mirror Bitcoin’s trajectory, as the XRP Army often speculates.
ETF Approval Odds Keep Climbing
Notably, approval odds for spot XRP ETFs have been rising. Bloomberg ETF analysts recently placed the likelihood at 95%. Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket shows an 80%–88% chance of approval in 2025.
Several major asset managers, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree, have filed applications. The U.S. SEC is currently reviewing them, with a decision deadline in October.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
