The debut success of the Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) has led to discussions surrounding how XRP’s price could react if other products see similar figures.
For context, on its first trading day, Canary’s XRPC absorbed more than 108.7 million XRP, worth about $245 million. Notably, the second day flow slowed but still brought in 11,926,251 XRP valued at roughly $27 million. After two days, the ETF now holds 120.69 million XRP, totaling about $275 million.
11M XRP Inflows Daily for a Year
Highlighting these figures, game designer Chad Steingraber projected what could happen if every XRP ETF attracted 11 million XRP each day. Specifically, he assumed 12 ETFs would take in this amount daily, which adds up to 132 million XRP every day.
Using a five-day trading week, he calculated 666 million XRP leaving the market each week. He then projected 2.64 billion XRP moving into cold storage after one month. Over a full year, he estimated 31.68 billion XRP disappearing from the circulating supply.
From his comments, a community member developed an AI model that suggested that XRP could climb to $15,160. However, the model worked on the assumption that XRP has 31.68 billion XRP in circulation, with the ETFs locking up all these tokens over a year. This was unrealistic.
How Could the XRP Price React?
To address this, we leveraged Grok AI to create a new model based on more realistic starting points. Notably, Grok used a circulating supply of 60 billion XRP and a price of $2.25.
In this model, the first month would see supply drop to 57.36 billion XRP, a 4.4% decline, with a projected price of $2.48. Month two fell to 54.72 billion XRP, 8.8% down, with a price of $2.97. Meanwhile, the third month listed 52.08 billion XRP with a 13.2% reduction and a price of $4.01.
Interestingly, by the seventh month, supply had sunk to 41.52 billion XRP, and the price had increased to $29.45. Month nine saw a drop to 36.24 billion XRP and a price spike to $85.10. For the 12th month, Grok ended with 28.32 billion XRP left in circulation and a projected XRP price of $420.18. With this, Grok measured a market value of about $11.9 trillion.
Grok explained that its method leveraged the stock-to-flow calculation, rising demand as ETF interest grows, and a gradual increase in a demand multiplier that reaches 3.0 by the 12th month.
It also added a moderate scarcity adjustment to prevent extreme overestimates. Grok pointed out that the final numbers look aggressive yet still exist within the range of what a globally adopted and institutionally supported asset might reach.
An Important Disclaimer
However, the model sits on multiple unlikely assumptions. First, it expects every XRP ETF to bring in 11 million XRP daily for an entire year.
Some proponents reminded Steingraber that this was unlikely, but he argued that strong competition could actually drive such flows in the first year. Nonetheless, even spot Bitcoin ETFs saw several days of outflows during their first month, despite intense competition.
His estimate also relied on 12 ETFs, even though only six additional spot XRP ETF applications remain under review in the United States. With the Canary Capital ETF included, the total number of spot products comes to seven, not twelve. Futures-based ETFs do not buy XRP, so they cannot contribute to these inflow totals.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
