Pressure Builds on Bitcoin as Binance Derivatives and Whale Activity Turn Bearish

Bitcoin has remained under sustained pressure after failing to hold its early-year rally, as spot and derivatives data point to increased selloffs. 

Bitcoin (BTC) started the year strong, climbing to $97,900 by Jan. 14, but momentum has turned bearish. Since then, it has recorded six consecutive intraday losses, falling 8.5% from its peak to around $89,500. The downtrend has been exacerbated by trade tensions triggered by President Trump’s recent tariff threats.

However, as external macro factors weigh on the crypto firstborn, pressure from derivatives traders and large holders has also added to the downward push. Specifically, aggressive selling activity and large BTC transfers to spot exchanges indicate a rise in downside risk.

Key Points

• Bitcoin peaked at $97,900 on Jan. 14 before recording six consecutive intraday losses and falling 8.5% to around $89,500.
• While external geopolitical factors have contributed to the price drop, market data also indicates selling pressure from whales.
• Net Taker Volume has stayed mostly negative since mid-January, confirming continued urgency from sellers.
• On Jan. 20, Net Taker Volume printed a sharp negative reading of -$319 million, the second decline below -$300 million.
• The initial decline of this magnitude came on Jan. 16, triggering a Bitcoin drop from $95,000 to $90,000.
• Also, whale wallets deposited more than $400 million worth of Bitcoin into spot exchanges on Jan. 20.

Bitcoin Under Pressure

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha highlighted these figures in a recent market commentary, confirming that Bitcoin is facing rising selling pressure across both derivatives and spot markets. 

First, he noted that Bitcoin has faced a second wave of aggressive selling, as indicated by recent changes in price and open interest on Binance’s BTC derivatives over the past 24 hours and seven days. 

For this signal, he called attention to the Net Taker Volume, which measures how aggressively traders buy or sell by tracking market orders on Binance Futures.

For context, Net Taker Volume turns positive when buyers rush to purchase at the ask price, a behavior that usually supports higher prices. In contrast, it turns negative when sellers move quickly to offload positions at the bid price, increasing downward pressure. 

Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Remains Negative

Taha observed that Net Taker Volume has stayed mostly negative since mid-January, showing that sellers have remained in control for an extended period rather than stepping back after short bursts of selling.

Specifically, selling pressure intensified on Jan. 20, when Net Taker Volume printed a sharp negative reading of -$319 million. This marked only the second time the indicator fell beyond the -$300 million level in recent weeks. 

Notably, the previous instance occurred on Jan. 16, when Bitcoin still traded above $95,000. Soon after that signal appeared, Bitcoin slipped below $90,000, reinforcing the indicator’s value as an early warning sign.

Large Whale Deposits to Exchanges

Secondly, Taha highlighted movements among large Bitcoin holders using CryptoQuant’s Whale Screener, which tracks real-time deposits and withdrawals of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins from more than 100 active whale wallets interacting with spot exchanges. 

Specifically, on Jan. 20, whale wallets transferred over $400 million worth of Bitcoin to spot exchanges, representing the second major deposit spike in a short time frame.

The first surge occurred on Jan. 15, when whales deposited roughly $500 million worth of Bitcoin into spot exchanges. This move came just before a sharp drop in price from around $96,000. 

Historically, large Bitcoin deposits to spot exchanges often signal an intention to sell or, at the very least, an increase in available supply that can weigh on price.