Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, predicts Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking free from the four-year market cycle that has historically defined its price movements.
Zhao shared this view during an appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box. He said 2026 could mark the beginning of what he described as a Bitcoin “super cycle”. In his view, the asset may no longer adhere to its familiar pattern of sharp rallies followed by deep corrections every four years.
Key Points
- Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expects 2026 could mark the start of a Bitcoin “super cycle.”
- U.S. regulatory stance on crypto is becoming more favorable, according to Zhao.
- Institutional inflows, including ETFs and corporate treasury purchases, are moderating Bitcoin’s volatility.
- Grayscale projects Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
- Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Shift in Bitcoin’s Market Behavior
Historically, Bitcoin’s major price peaks have closely tracked its halvings. Meanwhile, Zhao argued that this rhythm is beginning to weaken as political and regulatory conditions evolve. He cited a more crypto-friendly stance emerging in the United States and noted that other countries appear to be moving in a similar direction.
In economic terms, a super cycle refers to an extended period of expansion driven by durable structural forces rather than short-term speculation—an environment Zhao believes Bitcoin may now be entering.
Institutional Inflows Redefine Market Dynamics
Zhao’s outlook is echoed by analysts who focus on market structure. Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said the traditional halving-driven cycle began to lose influence in 2025. He said the change was largely attributable to sustained institutional participation.
Ruck noted that inflows from exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries have reshaped Bitcoin’s behavior. Consequently, these developments have helped moderate volatility and reduce the severity of post-peak sell-offs seen in previous cycles.
While short-term consolidation remains possible amid broader macroeconomic pressures, he expects the broader uptrend to extend into 2026.
Major Institutions and Executives Echo the Same View
Large financial players have reached similar conclusions. For instance, in December, Grayscale projected that Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
The firm attributed this forecast to increasing macroeconomic demand, persistent concerns over currency debasement, and a more supportive regulatory environment in the United States.
Standard Chartered has likewise adjusted its outlook. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said the four-year cycle theory no longer reflects current market conditions. The bank now forecasts Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Beyond traditional finance, several prominent crypto industry leaders share this perspective. Executives from Ark Invest, BitMEX, CryptoQuant, Bitwise, and Real Vision have all suggested that Bitcoin’s historic cycle model may no longer define its long-term trajectory.
Zhao Addresses His Future as Binance Era Closes
Alongside his market commentary, Changpeng Zhao also spoke about his personal future in the crypto industry. He confirmed that he has no plans to return to Binance. This position persists despite a presidential pardon that lifted the restrictions previously imposed on him.
Zhao said stepping away after seven years at the exchange ultimately felt appropriate. Although the transition was difficult at the time, he noted that it allowed room for new leadership to take shape.
In November 2023, Zhao pleaded guilty to failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program at Binance. Subsequently, he served a four-month prison sentence and was barred from working at the exchange.
President Donald Trump issued a pardon in October, a move that drew scrutiny from some U.S. lawmakers. At the time, Trump said that he did not know Zhao personally.
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