Hidden XRP/BTC Liquidity Cycle Shows When XRP Could Finally Outperform Bitcoin

Chart data reveals a hidden XRPBTC liquidity cycle that may provide clues to when XRP could finally outperform Bitcoin.

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The XRP/BTC pair has dropped 4.23% in 2025 and currently trades at 0.00002014, with XRP continuing to underperform Bitcoin during the ongoing market-wide downturn that has persisted since Q4 2025. 

However, market data shows XRP currently trades within a repeating liquidity cycle on the XRP/BTC chart that could indicate XRP’s current position in the ongoing downturn and where it may be headed next.

Key Points

• The XRP/BTC pair has fallen 4.23% in 2025 to 0.00002014 amid XRP’s continued underperformance against Bitcoin since Q4 2025.
• Data shows an eight-year macro liquidity cycle governing the XRP/BTC pair that may determine when XRP finally gets its breakout against Bitcoin.
• The cycle features a Green Zone between 0.00009 and 0.0001 BTC, a Red Zone between 0.00000674 and 0.00000817 BTC, and a Gray Area at 0.000017 to 0.0000349 BTC.
• A break above the upper grey resistance is the key signal to watch, as market data shows this move has historically triggered aggressive capital rotation from Bitcoin into XRP and a rise in XRP’s USD price.

What the XRP/BTC Chart Is Really Telling You

This pattern was recently highlighted by EGRAG Crypto, a well-known market analyst. Speaking on the XRP/BTC pair, EGRAG stressed that most people misread the chart entirely. 

According to him, the pair has nothing to do with XRP’s dollar price. Rather, it shows how XRP is performing against Bitcoin specifically. When this ratio climbs, money moves out of Bitcoin and into XRP, and history shows that is when XRP delivers its biggest gains in dollar terms, too.

EGRAG suggested that this chart was one of the most useful tools for getting ahead of XRP’s next big move. He stressed that the chart features a repeating liquidity cycle that has shown up before every major XRP rally period the market has ever seen.

Two Key XRP Price Zones

The market analyst called attention to two zones on the XRP/BTC monthly chart that determine the cycle. The first is the Green Zone between 0.00009 BTC and 0.0001 BTC. Notably, whenever XRP/BTC pushes into this area, XRP gets dangerously stretched relative to Bitcoin, sellers take control, and a long decline against BTC follows. 

This happened in the 2017 cycle, when the pair closed May 2017 at 0.0001071 BTC before pulling back sharply to 0.000006250 BTC in November 2017, briefly recovering to 0.0002296 BTC, and then crashing again. 

It repeated in the 2019-2021 cycle too, when the pair topped out at 0.00009784 BTC in January 2019 and eventually fell all the way to 0.000000619 BTC by January 2021.

The second is the Red Zone or Capitulation Zone, ranging between 0.00000674 BTC and 0.00000817 BTC. When XRP/BTC falls into this area, XRP gets deeply undervalued against Bitcoin, buyers quietly start building positions, and a strong stretch of outperformance follows.

The pair entered this zone in the 2014 bottom when XRP dropped to 0.00000442 BTC in July 2014, again at the 2020 bottom when it reached 0.00000619 BTC in January 2021, and then once more during the 2024-2025 sweep when it traded between 0.00000662 and 0.00000690 BTC from June through November 2024.

Why the Current Sideways Action Is Actually a Good Sign

After the November 2024 rally, the XRP/BTC pair moved into a tight range that EGRAG highlights with a white box on the right side of the chart. The box runs from the January 2025 high of 0.00003419 BTC down to around 0.000017 BTC. 

At its current price of 0.00002014 BTC, the pair sits in the middle of this range and has been moving within this area since the November 2024 rally. It bounces between a lower grey support band below and an upper grey resistance band above, and EGRAG says this is exactly what a healthy accumulation phase looks like.

According to him, this kind of sideways action happens when volatility dies down, fresh liquidity builds up, and momentum quietly gathers steam ahead of the next big move. EGRAG believes this compression does not indicate weakness but represents a market loading up before it breaks out.

Past XRP Recoveries Tell Us What Comes Next

Every time XRP has bounced from the Capitulation Zone, the same three things have followed: a period of sideways movement, a push above key resistance, and then a sharp outperformance against Bitcoin. 

This happened in 2017, when XRP surged 5,452% from 0.00000442 BTC in March 2017 all the way to 0.0002454 BTC by May 2017, the highest level the XRP/BTC pair has ever traded in its entire history. This also played out in 2021, with the pair climbing from 0.00000619 BTC in January 2021 to 0.00003909 BTC by May 2021.

What both cycles show is that these moves do not build slowly, arrive fast, and catch most people off guard. According to EGRAG, by the time confirmation appears, much of the move has already happened.

The Eight-Year Cycle

EGRAG suggested that an eight-year macro cycle has dictated the XRP/BTC direction, rotating through four stages: Bitcoin dominance, altcoin suppression, liquidity reset, and finally altcoin expansion, with XRP typically making its biggest move at the end. 

Specifically, the first cycle ran from 2014 to 2017, during which XRP bled lower against Bitcoin for years until it exploded without warning in 2017. 

The second cycle ran as a long reset from 2018 to 2024, as the pair collapsed from its 2017 highs, capital flowed back into Bitcoin, and XRP sat in the shadows for years. From the 2017 peak to the most recent capitulation, roughly seven to eight years passed, and this is enough time for a full cycle to complete.

With the reset now behind it, EGRAG expects 2025 and 2026 to bring continued accumulation before XRP starts pulling ahead of Bitcoin and the expansion phase kicks in.

13/13

The key signal to watch: Break above the upper grey resistance band on #XRP/#BTC.

That signals: Capital rotating from #BTC into #XRP.

When that happens historically: #XRP/#USD rallies aggressively.

Most see randomness.

I see liquidity cycles repeating.

Structure >…

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) March 7, 2026

According to him, the signal worth watching is a clean break above the upper grey resistance band on the XRP/BTC chart at the January 2025 high of 0.00003419. Notably, this same move has historically kicked off aggressive money rotation from Bitcoin into XRP and sent the XRP/USD price higher.