XRP is trading around $1.40, as the cryptocurrency attempts to recover from its recent lows, but bears continue to dominate the 4-hour chart.
The next two weeks could be critical for XRP’s price direction, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Ripple’s biggest-ever Swell conference are both scheduled for the final week of October.
With these events still 15 days away, bearish traders may try to push XRP lower before either event gives investors a reason to change their outlook.
XRP Structure Gives Bears an Advantage
XRP remains below two key moving averages, with the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA21) at $1.4153 and the 55-period exponential moving average (EMA55) at $1.4508.
The bearish Break of Structure (BoS), which occurred last week at $1.4458, confirmed a change in market structure in favor of bears. The $1.4458 level now acts as resistance, while the EMA55 solidifies the barrier around $1.44-$1.45, giving bears an actual price zone to defend.
The $1.531 swing high also remains untouched, meaning XRP has yet to challenge the previous high that bulls would need to overcome to confirm the case for a recovery.
Although the price has rebounded from a swing low of $1.3189 recorded last week, the move has not changed the broader trend. Instead, the recovery could amount to a retest of resistance before another decline if buyers fail to push the price higher.
XRP’s performance in 2026 adds to the concerns. The cryptocurrency has fallen 17.6% since the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin has declined 3.5% and Ethereum has lost 9.5%.
XRP’s market cap currently stands at around $88.4 billion, representing around 3.1% of the entire cryptocurrency market. Its greater losses compared with these two major assets suggest that XRP continues to face significant selling pressure.
Why XRP’s Next Move Around $1.45 Matters
The current indicators suggest that XRP is trading within a narrow range, with the Average True Range (ATR) at 0.0227 and volatility compressed around the 1.5-times ATR band.
The upper volatility band sits near $1.4493, almost matching the bearish BoS level at $1.4458. This makes the $1.4450-$1.4510 range particularly important because several technical indicators confirm resistance within the same area.
If XRP climbs into this range but fails to break above it, a rejection wick could confirm that sellers still control the market and increase the likelihood of another decline. Such a move would support the bearish setup and reopen the path toward the lower volatility band.
However, a clean four-hour candle close above $1.4510 would invalidate this immediate bearish outlook by pushing XRP above the EMA55 and showing that buyers have gained ground. Until then, sellers may continue to look for opportunities to open or add to short positions whenever the price approaches resistance.
Fed Decision and Ripple Swell Could Change XRP’s Outlook
Macroeconomic conditions could make a recovery more difficult. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16, and investors are now watching for another increase at the Oct. 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Ripple’s Swell 2026 conference could provide a positive catalyst when it takes place from Oct. 27 to 29 at Hudson Yards in New York City. For the first time, Ripple will combine its institutional-focused Swell conference with XRPL Apex, which focuses on developers.
The agenda includes XRP ETFs, tokenization, institutional settlement, and the next phase of the XRP Ledger. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have already recorded net daily inflows, pointing to continued institutional demand for XRP-linked investment products.
XRP Price Targets as Oct 27 Approaches
If XRP fails to break through the $1.4450-$1.4510 resistance zone, the first downside target is $1.3812, the lower edge of the current volatility band.
A break below that level would bring the $1.3189 structural swing low into focus, while continued selling could push XRP toward $1.2468, the window low that marks the most extended downside target in the current analysis.
For now, the bearish technical structure, the resistance around $1.45, and uncertainty over interest rates give sellers reasons to maintain pressure on XRP.
The next few trading sessions will show whether bears can force another decline before the Federal Reserve meeting on Oct. 27-28 and Ripple Swell from Oct. 27 to 29. Both events could change investor expectations, but until then, XRP’s ability to overcome the resistance above its current price remains central to its short-term outlook.