As September 2024 begins, investors are on edge, wondering if Bitcoin will break free from its historically weak performance during this month. 

A recent analysis from QCP Capital suggests that, despite Bitcoin’s typical September struggles, this year could be different, with potential price targets exceeding $65,000.

Bitcoin Could Aim for a Bullish September

In a report today, QCP Capital confirmed that Bitcoin closed August down by 8.6%, a decline largely fueled by an early month’s crash that Bitcoin could not recover from. 

Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin, with the largest cryptocurrency recording losses in six of the past seven Septembers, averaging a 4.5% decline. If this trend repeats, Bitcoin could see prices drop to around $55,000 this month.

However, QCP Capital pointed to strong support around the $54,000 level, which served as a critical bounce point in July before Bitcoin surged toward $70,000. This support level is important as it could prevent further declines and potentially set the stage for a price recovery.

Interestingly, QCP Capital noted that despite the overall bearish seasonality, there are signs of structural bullishness in the medium term. 

This optimism is seen in market activities, such as the rolling out of long Call options for both Bitcoin and Ethereum until March. 

In particular, a large number of BTC Call options, set to expire in March 2025, were recently purchased, indicating that some investors are positioning themselves for significant price increases in the coming months.

However, it is important to consider the macroeconomic environment. The impact of economic data releases slated for this month, such as the Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payroll reports, on cryptocurrency prices has diminished recently, but they could still influence market sentiment.

BTC Targets $65K in September 

In addition to this, on-chain data provides further evidence that September might not be as bearish as usual. The WaveNet deep learning model, which has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s price movements in the past, forecasts a potential price bounce this month. 

The model assigns a 50% probability that Bitcoin will surpass the $65,000 mark in September, defying the typical seasonal weakness.

This potential bullish reversal is also supported by reduced selling pressures, as disclosed by The Crypto Basic in a previous report. Earlier this year, Bitcoin faced significant downward pressure due to large-scale selloffs, including the German government’s sale of nearly 50,000 BTC. 

However, with these sales now largely behind us, the market may be poised for recovery. Additionally, long-term holders have increased their supply by 262,000 BTC in the past month. 

Moreover, when August ended on a bearish note, September only continued the downward trend in four of the last seven years. In the other three years, Bitcoin reversed course and posted positive returns.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been lackluster for consecutive weeks, dropping to $57,136 early today, though optimism remains for the $100K target.

Throughout August, the $58,000 to $60,000 range proved to be a challenging barrier for Bitcoin, as it repeatedly failed to break out decisively above this level. After a brief breach, Bitcoin has now returned to the tight channel, ranging once again.

However, caution is sweeping the crypto scene as September begins—a month that has historically been bearish for Bitcoin. Despite this, some analysts believe Bitcoin could be gearing up for a significant rally in the coming weeks.

A recent analysis by Market Maestro, a well-known economist and long-term investor, highlights this expectation. In a detailed post on X, Market Maestro outlined a potential path for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in the near future.

Technical Patterns Indicating Possible Upside

Market Maestro points to a series of technical patterns on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. He identifies a structure resembling a “cup and handle” or a “head and shoulders” pattern, both traditionally seen as bullish formations. 

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently retesting the neckline of the “cup,” forming what he describes as a “bullish megaphone” pattern. 

Further zooming into the chart, Market Maestro notes the development of a bullish AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution) pattern. According to him, Bitcoin has already completed the accumulation phase. Now, it is in the manipulation phase, where he expects a potential price dip to $49,500. 

He argued that this potential drop would represent a “spring” or final shakeout before a significant move higher. In this scenario, the analyst anticipates Bitcoin could rally up to $100,000 following this dip.

Key Fibonacci Levels and Price Targets

Notably, he also highlighted Bitcoin’s recent behavior around key Fibonacci retracement levels. According to Market Maestro’s observation, Bitcoin has repeatedly reacted to declines from the 78% Fibonacci retracement level, with notable tops recorded at $69,700, $67,500, and $64,900.

He forecasts a reaction at $61,500, aligning with another key Fibonacci level, followed by a potential wick down to $49,500, which would complete the manipulation phase.

Macroeconomic Catalysts Could Propel Bitcoin Higher

It is worth noting that Market Maestro’s bullish scenario for Bitcoin hinges on upcoming macroeconomic events, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on September 18.

He believes these rate cuts could serve as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s price action, sparking an influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market.

“I foresee that the inflow of money into Bitcoin may not come after the stock markets as it used to but could come with a maximum delay of 1-2 weeks,” Market Maestro stated.

Ultimately, while the analyst’s base scenario involves a temporary pullback to $49,500, the longer-term outlook remains bullish. After the anticipated dip and completion of the manipulation phase, Market Maestro expects Bitcoin to enter the distribution phase, setting the stage for a rally toward $100,000.