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XRP Not Yet Classified as a Financial Instrument in Japan

Recent claims suggesting that XRP has already been classified as a financial instrument in Japan are inaccurate, according to XRP community figure Crypto Eri.

In a tweet, she addressed what she described as growing misinformation among financial influencers regarding XRP’s classification in Japan.

Key Point

  • XRP is not yet classified as a financial instrument in Japan, despite rising misinformation online.
  • Japan’s FSA is proposing new rules that could reclassify crypto assets under the FIEA by 2027.
  • The changes aim to tighten oversight as crypto adoption grows and fraud cases increase.
  • Meanwhile, the U.S. SEC has classified XRP as a digital commodity, not a security.

Proposed Changes, Not Current Law

The clarification centers on Japan’s evolving regulatory framework. XRP and over 100 other crypto assets are not currently recognized as financial instruments in Japan. Instead, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is proposing an amendment that could reclassify cryptocurrencies under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA).

If approved, the changes will take effect around 2027, not immediately. The proposal would introduce stricter oversight, including new disclosure requirements and penalties, as regulators respond to rising adoption and increasing fraud cases.

Japan’s crypto market has indeed expanded rapidly. It now boasts over 13 million accounts, meaning roughly one in ten residents holds a crypto asset.

Meanwhile, authorities are handling hundreds of complaints each month related to scams and malicious promotions, prompting tighter regulation. Notably, NFTs and stablecoins will remain under the existing regulatory structure.

Institutional Integration on the Horizon

According to reports from Nikkei, the proposed framework would mark a significant shift by allowing banks and traditional financial institutions to hold crypto assets for investment purposes.

This would effectively integrate digital assets deeper into Japan’s financial system. The move highlights crypto’s growing role beyond payments into mainstream investment products.

Currently, cryptocurrencies in Japan fall under the Payment Services Act. However, the shift toward the FIEA highlights how usage has evolved as investment demand grows.

Legal Concerns Around XRP Classification

Meanwhile, the debate over classifying XRP as a financial product is not without controversy. Legal expert Bill Morgan has warned that such a move could introduce unintended consequences.

Morgan argues that applying a securities framework to assets like XRP could undermine their core utility as a fast, low-cost bridge currency for cross-border transactions. Increased regulatory friction could limit the flexibility that currently allows XRP to function efficiently in liquidity and settlement use cases.

He also stressed that the definition of a “financial product” varies globally. While Japan may move toward asset-level classification, other jurisdictions, such as Australia, are focusing on regulating intermediaries instead of the assets themselves.

XRP as a Digital Commodity in the U.S.

Meanwhile, the U.S. SEC has officially classified XRP as a digital commodity, confirming it is not a security. The framework also classifies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and several other crypto assets as digital commodities.

Notably, the SEC says these assets derive value from their role in a functional network, not from a central entity. This marks a shift away from reliance on the Howey Test, with the SEC signaling that most crypto assets are not securities. It also clarifies that activities like staking and mining are generally not securities transactions.

Alignment with the CFTC further strengthens regulatory clarity, easing the path for more exchange listings, institutional adoption, and broader use.

Shiba Inu Records Death Cross, but Price Bounces 5% Instead

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Shiba Inu has printed a concerning signal on a short-term timeframe, but its price has shown resilience, mirroring a broader market trend.

Chart analysis highlights a death cross on the Shiba Inu (SHIB) 1-hour chart after prices slumped briefly on the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. Nonetheless, the meme coin has bounced 5% in the past 24 hours.

Key Points

  • Chart analysis highlights a death cross on the Shiba Inu (SHIB) 1-hour chart, as prices slumped briefly on the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East.
  • The price impact was immediate, with the prominent meme coin dropping from around $0.00000575 to a low of $0.00000565 the same day.
  • While the hourly chart has printed a death cross, a higher timeframe has maintained its golden cross.
  • In the past 24 hours, SHIB is up nearly 5%, reclaiming $0.00000606 and showing resilience despite the death cross.

Shiba Inu Death Cross

For context, a death cross forms between the 200-period and 50-period SMAs, with the former crossing over the latter. Usually, this indicates that momentum has flipped bearish, as the longer-period moving average has moved above the short-term one.

On March 22, this crossing formed on the SHIB 1H chart, with the 200-period MA crossing over the 50-period MA. Notably, the price impact was immediate, with the prominent meme coin dropping from around $0.00000575 to a low of $0.00000565 the same day.

Shiba Inu Death Cross on 1H Chart
Shiba Inu Death Cross on 1H Chart

Notably, the death cross appeared after a failed golden cross attempt in the same timeframe. The day before, precisely on March 21, the SMA 50 crossed above the SMA 200, but the price did not react. Fresh uncertainties stemming from the prolonged geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran weighed on SHIB’s price, triggering a slump and a subsequent death cross.

Higher Timeframe Golden Cross Remains Intact

While the hourly chart has printed a death cross, a higher timeframe has maintained its golden cross. The 4-hour chart recorded a golden crossing on March 19, following a rebound from recent lows around $0.00000562.

Although its price has consolidated since then, SHIB has maintained this golden cross, with the 50 MA and 200 MA moving further apart. This trend suggests that while lower timeframes may signal bearish momentum, the longer term remains largely bullish.

Moreover, Shiba Inu trades above both SMAs, which is a bullish sign for the meme coin.

Shiba Inu Bounces 5%, Wrecking Bears

The meme coin has also continued to show resilience despite the hourly death cross. Rather than moving sideways as the indicator suggests, it has rallied upwards.

In the past 24 hours, SHIB is up nearly 5%, reclaiming $0.00000606. The move followed a broader market rebound, spurred by Donald Trump’s recent remark of a 5-day ceasefire on attacks on Iranian power plants. The US president noted that this was due to a positive development in the ongoing negotiations, sending the global market northward, including crypto.

Expectedly, the rebound has wrecked SHIB bears over the past 24 hours. Of the $119,170 liquidated positions, $94,350 of them were shorts, with only $24,820 being long bets.

For the broader crypto market, Coinglass shows that a staggering $611 million has been wiped out in the last 24 hours. Short positions led with $361 million, while longs accounted for $249 million.

Crypto Liquidation Chart/Coinglass
Crypto Liquidation Chart/Coinglass

These forceful exits affected 126,476 traders, with the largest being a $16.27 million liquidation on the ETH/USDT pair on Bitget.

Cardano Founder Teases Imminent Midnight Launch With Cryptic Post

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Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has reignited anticipation for the privacy-focused blockchain Midnight with a cryptic post on X. 

As the crypto community awaits the project’s mainnet debut, he directly engaged his more than one million followers with a pointed question: “Who’s ready for Midnight?” 

Key Points 

  • Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson posts a brief question teasing the readiness for Midnight. 
  • The post included a cover of Ground Control to Major Tom performed by Chris Hadfield aboard the International Space Station in 2013. 
  • The privacy-focused network is expected to launch as a Cardano partner chain later this month. 
  • Midnight has already attracted notable partnerships from Google and recently added key entities, including Bullish and Worldpay, as federated node operators. 

Hoskinson Teases Midnight’s Mainnet Launch 

In a new tweet, Cardano founder Hoskinson signaled the imminent launch of Midnight, amplifying curiosity and discussion. 

To strengthen the message, Hoskinson paired the post with a cover of “Ground Control to Major Tom” by Chris Hadfield, recorded aboard the International Space Station in 2013.

The choice of video adds thematic weight. It evokes exploration, transition, and entry into a new frontier, paralleling Midnight’s positioning as Cardano’s step into programmable privacy. Moreover, the minimalist phrasing encourages the community to prepare for a pivotal milestone, turning a simple question into a coordinated signal of what may come next.

Notably, the post quickly gained traction, drawing over 40,000 views and more than 1,500 likes within hours. At the same time, members of the Cardano community, including Input Output Global (IOG), have echoed their readiness, reinforcing growing momentum around the launch.

Midnight Secures Major Partnerships 

For context, Midnight is a privacy-focused blockchain developed by IOG. It aims to deliver programmable privacy through zero-knowledge proofs while maintaining regulatory compliance. Charles Hoskinson has backed the initiative, previously disclosing a $200 million investment in the project.

Meanwhile, its native token, NIGHT, is already trading on major exchanges, even as the Midnight network prepares to launch as a Cardano partner chain. The project has also attracted links to major technology platforms, including Google, highlighting its potential for broad adoption. 

Despite securing notable partnerships early on, Hoskinson expects further growth. Earlier this month, the Midnight Foundation expanded its ecosystem by adding Bullish exchange and Worldpay as federated node operators.

Ahead of the anticipated mainnet launch, the NIGHT token has risen 5.34% in the past 24 hours to $0.04687. However, its market cap, which surpassed $1 billion within days of its December debut, has since declined to approximately $778 million. 

XRP Now Listed Alongside Gold, Oil, and Wheat as a Global Commodity

A wave of excitement has swept through the XRP community following the asset’s new positioning alongside some of the world’s most established commodities.

In a tweet, crypto commentator Digital Asset Investor highlighted the significance of XRP’s classification under the joint framework of the U.S. SEC and CFTC, urging followers to take a closer look at the changes.

“I don’t think the world or your financial advisor really understands what happened,” he noted, encouraging investors to “lock in” as the implications unfold.

Key Points

  • XRP is now alongside global commodities like gold, oil, and wheat under a new SEC-CFTC framework.
  • The classification labels XRP as a non-security, reinforcing its role as a utility digital commodity asset.
  • Supporters believe the market has not priced in the impact, urging investors to “lock in” early on XRP.
  • Critics push back, noting meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu were also in the same list.

XRP Joins the World’s Commodity Class

At the center of the discussion is XRP’s inclusion in the newly defined category of digital commodities. Specifically, this places XRP in the same class as traditional assets like oil, gold, wheat, and natural gas.

The updated regulatory framework introduced by the SEC on Wednesday outlines a unified structure for crypto assets. It explicitly names XRP among a group of major tokens that are non-securities. Notably, this list also includes assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

By positioning XRP within a global list that spans energy products, metals, agricultural goods, and now digital assets, the classification reinforces the idea that XRP is a functional, utility-driven asset rather than a financial security tied to an issuer.

Shift in Market Perception

The comparison to traditional commodities is already shaping narratives within the crypto space. For many, placing XRP alongside assets like gold and crude oil suggests that institutions and regulators may begin treating it differently.

Digital commodities, as defined in the framework, derive their value from decentralized systems and market supply and demand, not from a central team managing them. That distinction separates them from assets that are securities.

The new guidance also points to a shift away from the long-used Howey Test, which has been the primary tool for determining whether crypto assets qualify as securities.

“The Market Hasn’t Priced This In Yet”

Reaction within the XRP community has been swift. Many believe that labeling XRP as a global commodity means the market is underestimating its long-term impact.

By placing XRP alongside global commodities, the narrative is shifting toward greater financial recognition.

While it remains unclear how institutions will respond, many in the space argue that the shift has already occurred, even if prices have not yet caught up.

Meanwhile, some critics argue that the classification may not carry much weight, noting that the SEC’s list of digital commodities also includes meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu.

“The fact that Doge and Shib are on the list lets me know it’s a joke of a list,” remarked X user @JoeE211504.

New Layer-3 Blockchain Launches Testing on Shiba Inu

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The Shiba Inu ecosystem is advancing its blockchain infrastructure as developers begin early testing of a Layer-3 (L3) explorer built on Shibarium. 

Popular Shibarium-based decentralized exchange WoofSwap is leading this effort under the ShibClaw initiative, signaling a shift toward greater scalability, automation, and improved network performance.

Key Points 

  • The Shiba Inu ecosystem advances its infrastructure as developers begin testing a new Layer-3 blockchain on Shibarium. 
  • The blockchain is being developed under the ShibClaw initiative, signaling a shift toward scalability and automation. 
  • With testing live, WoofSwap refrained from providing detailed technical information about the network. 
  • The L3 network builds directly on Shibarium’s Layer-2 framework, which already improves transaction efficiency over base-layer operations. 

Shibarium L3 Network Undergoes Testing 

Over the weekend, Woofswap announced in a post on X that it had launched an explorer connected to a new Layer-3 blockchain called SouLayer. 

According to the update, the L3 network, built directly on Shiba Inu’s L2 blockchain Shibarium, is currently undergoing testing. However, the team did not disclose further technical details, reinforcing that development remains in its early stages. Notably, the announcement confirms that foundational work on Shibarium’s next scaling layer is actively progressing.

Meanwhile, the introduction of a Layer-3 network builds on Shibarium’s existing framework, which was designed to enhance transaction efficiency compared to base-layer operations. 

As a result, the L3 aims to increase throughput further while reducing transaction costs. In addition, it is expected to support more specialized and customizable decentralized applications.

At this stage, early data highlights limited activity on the SouLayer explorer. As of March 21, 2026, the network has recorded just 25 transactions. Nevertheless, it has already processed 30,937 total blocks, with 30,842 wallet addresses interacting with the blockchain. 

ShibClaw
ShibClaw

L3 Blockchain Under ShibClaw Initiative

Meanwhile, the ShibClaw initiative remains central to this development. It introduces AI-powered agents capable of executing tasks and supporting user workflows within Shibarium. Consequently, this innovation reflects a broader shift towards intelligent automation in decentralized ecosystems, where on-chain agents can improve usability and efficiency for both developers and users.

Despite these advancements, the rollout is still in its early phase. WoofSwap has not provided a timeline for the mainnet launch, leaving the community to interpret the testing phase as a sign of ongoing but incomplete development. While some users are frustrated by delays, others remain optimistic about the upcoming L3 blockchain.

It is important to distinguish this new Layer-3 effort from the privacy-focused scaling solution introduced by the Shiba Inu team in April 2024. That earlier initiative also remains in testing, with no confirmed date for its mainnet debut.

Insufficient XRP Reserve Errors Hit 3-Year Peak Above 372,000: What Does This Mean for XRP?

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The XRPL has recorded a spike in XRP reserve errors to a 3-year peak, indicating that the network may now be witnessing growing adoption.

XRP is currently witnessing short-term price weakness and rising network activity. After gaining 18.5% from $1.35 on March 8 to $1.6 on March 17, the price reversed and dropped 10% to around $1.44, leading to concerns among market participants.

While the decline suggests fading momentum, on-chain data shows a sharp increase in XRP Ledger errors around insufficient balances, indicating that there may be growing network usage.

Key Points

  • XRP rose 18.5% from $1.35 to $1.6 between March 8 and March 17 before dropping 10% to the current price of $1.44.
  • Amid the recent pullback, data shows insufficient reserve errors spiked to 372,280 on March 18, marking a three-year high.
  • The increase built steadily, climbing from just over 3,000 on March 10 to over 230,000 by March 17.
  • These consistent spikes confirm that the XRP Ledger may now be experiencing greater network usage, despite struggling prices.
  • Some suggest rising network usage could indicate that users may be burning more XRP for fees and locking more tokens up for reserves, which reduces the circulating supply over time.

Rising XRPL Errors Indicate Increased Network Use

Matt, an XRP community commentator, called the public’s attention to the recent spike, arguing that it may be bullish for XRP. He noted that the XRP Ledger has recorded a jump in errors linked to insufficient XRP balances for new offers, which suggests growing activity on the network.

Matt pointed out that these errors happen when users try to place orders without holding enough XRP to meet the required reserves or fees. He claimed that such spikes often appear when activity on the DEX increases, liquidity demand grows, and more users join the network. To him, these factors show that usage is picking up quickly.

He also explained that every action on the XRP Ledger requires XRP for reserves and transaction costs. This means that as activity rises, users would need to lock up or burn more XRP.

Matt argued that this trend supports the Shane Ellis liquidity and scarcity theory, which suggests that higher demand can quietly reduce the amount of XRP in circulation. He added that this pattern could indicate something larger building in the background as XRPL activity continues to increase.

Data Shows a Sharp and Unusual Spike

Notably, available on-chain data shows that the situation is even more extreme. While Matt mentioned over 200,000 failures in a few days, the actual data shows that errors went beyond 300,000 in a single day. Specifically, the number reached 372,280 on March 18, marking the highest daily level since March 18, 2023, and setting a three-year peak.

Insufficient XRP Reserve Errors XRPScan
Insufficient XRP Reserve Errors | XRPScan

Under normal conditions, these XRP reserve errors average about 1,500 per day, which confirms the unusual size of the recent readings. This sharp rise shows that something unusual is happening on the network.

Interestingly, the increase built up over time. On March 10, errors rose to 3,213, then jumped to 101,570 by March 15. The number climbed further to 231,811 on March 17, before reaching over 370,000 on March 18. Although the figures have dropped since then, they are still above 30,000 as of March 21, which remains far higher than normal levels.

The surge in insufficient reserve errors suggests that demand on the XRP Ledger is growing. While the price has fallen in the short term, data shows that more users are trying to interact with the network, even if some do not have enough XRP to complete their transactions. This indicates higher participation and rising interest in the ecosystem.

Ripple’s Long Game: XRP Escrow, Institutional Deals, and a Potential IPO Shock Reveal

XRP holders argue Ripple may be executing a carefully orchestrated long-term strategy that could culminate in a major IPO moment and a dramatic revaluation of XRP.

Prominent community figure Digital Asset Investor promoted the theory in a post on X. The theory, framed as “If I Were Ripple,” centers on a sequence of strategic moves aligned with the vision of CEO Brad Garlinghouse. 

It proposes that Ripple’s use of XRP escrow, institutional allocations, and balance sheet positioning may all be part of an endgame.

Key Points

  • XRP holders say Ripple may be executing a long-term plan that could end in an IPO reveal and major XRP revaluation.
  • The theory claims escrowed XRP and hidden institutional deals may reshape supply and ownership perceptions.
  • A future IPO could reveal XRP holdings and boost Ripple’s valuation while elevating XRP’s global role.
  • Despite expansion into finance, XRP faces competition from stablecoins and rival blockchain solutions.

The XRP Escrow and Institutional Positioning Narrative

At the core of the theory is XRP escrow, a mechanism Ripple has used for years to lock up large portions of its token supply. According to the influencer’s breakdown, this escrow could serve a deeper purpose beyond market stability.

The idea suggests Ripple may have already allocated portions of this escrow to institutions or even governments through undisclosed agreements. If true, this would mean Ripple does not control as much XRP as the market assumes. This factor could significantly alter perceptions of supply dynamics.

Another key point in the theory is the notion that Ripple has intentionally kept XRP off its balance sheet. This allows the market to underestimate the company’s holdings and the asset’s strategic deployment.

IPO Speculation and the “Reveal” Moment

The most striking aspect of the theory centers on a potential IPO. The argument suggests that when Ripple eventually goes public, it could reveal the true distribution of XRP ownership, while simultaneously placing its holdings on the balance sheet.

Such a move, according to proponents, could dramatically increase both Ripple’s valuation and XRP’s perceived utility.

Community reactions have amplified this narrative. Analyst EGRAG openly suggested that this scenario may already be unfolding. Other commentators believe the first four stages of the plan are complete, leaving only the final “reveal” phase.

Community Reactions
Community Reactions

Ripple’s Expanding Financial Infrastructure

While the theory remains speculative, it aligns with Ripple’s observable evolution over the past few years. The company has aggressively expanded beyond cross-border payments into a full-stack financial infrastructure provider.

Its acquisitions include Hidden Road (now Ripple Prime), GTreasury (now Ripple Treasury), Rail, and custody firms like Metaco. These moves highlight a deliberate push into institutional finance, positioning Ripple across trading, liquidity, custody, and treasury management.

At the same time, XRP’s role has been expanding. Beyond serving as a bridge asset for payments, it is now being integrated into trading frameworks and explored for collateral use in institutional environments.

“Flipping the Switch” in Slow Motion

Garlinghouse has consistently pushed back against the idea of a single breakthrough moment for XRP. Instead, he describes adoption as a process involving “thousands of switches” flipped over time.

This suggests that any major event, such as an IPO, would be the culmination of years of incremental progress rather than a sudden turning point.

Meanwhile, even with growing optimism, XRP becoming a global financial leader isn’t certain. Big institutions are building their own blockchain systems, and stablecoins remain strong rivals because their prices are stable.

Still, some experts like Black Swan Capitalist founder Verssan Aljarrah believe Ripple’s actions show XRP is being positioned at the heart of a new financial system.

Here’s the Price Range XRP Must Breach to Turn the Bearish Trend Around

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While XRP price has continued to defend the 200-week EMA, it would need to breach an overhead resistance range to flip the bearish trend around.

XRP is currently at a critical point, with price action centered around the 200-week EMA at $1.41, which serves as a key support level.

While the price has managed to recover above this level, it remains under pressure from strong resistance between $1.8 and $2, where the 20-week and 50-week EMAs sit.

Key Points

  • Data shows XRP is holding above the 200-week EMA at $1.41 after briefly dropping below it, helping drive a 22% recovery from $1.12 to $1.6.
  • XRP sees strong resistance between $1.8 and $2 (20 EMA and 50 EMA), where it must break above to confirm a shift away from the current bearish trend.
  • A death cross between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA in January previously led to a price decline after a rally to $2.4.
  • XRP could mirror past cycles, where a rebound after touching the 200-week EMA led to a short-term rally before a continued drop.
  • Data points to a possible downside target around $0.7 to $0.8, aligned with a long-term trendline and untested support zone.

XRP Holds Above $1.41 but Remains Under Pressure

This is according to a recent analysis from Chart Nerd, which shows that XRP sits at a very important point, with the 200-week EMA at $1.41 acting as a key support level. 

Over the last five to six weeks, the price has moved around this level, sometimes dropping below it but recently closing back above it with strength. This move helped XRP rise by about 22%, from $1.12 to $1.6, but the overall trend is still uncertain, as the price has again slipped below $1.5.

Right now, XRP sits between strong support and strong resistance. Specifically, the $1.41 level is holding it up, while the 20-week and 50-week EMAs between $1.8 and $2 are keeping it down. 

The Pivotal 200W EMA
The Pivotal 200W EMA

This tight range means the price could move higher in the short term, but it still faces pressure. Until XRP clearly breaks above the $1.8 to $2 range, the broader trend still leans bearish.

$1.8 to $2 Remains the Key Barrier

Chart Nerd explained that XRP needs to move above the $1.8 to $2 zone, where the 20 EMA and 50 EMA meet, to show real strength. Without that move, any rally could fail just like before. In a past move, XRP climbed from $1.8 to $2.4, but that same period saw a death cross form between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA in January, which later pushed the price down again.

The current recovery from $1.12 looks similar to that earlier pattern. The analyst expects XRP to continue rising toward $1.8 to $2 in March, April, or May, but warns that a rejection there could lead to another drop. If that happens, XRP could lose the $1.41 support, which would confirm a deeper bearish trend.

XRP 20 and 50 EMAs Chart Nerd
XRP 20 and 50 EMAs | Chart Nerd

Past Cycles Point to a Short-Term Bounce

Looking back at earlier cycles, the analyst compared today’s market to what happened in 2021, when XRP peaked near $2, dropped to the 200-week EMA, and then saw a relief rally that lasted about three months. After that short recovery, the price continued downward.

In the current cycle, XRP reached a high in July 2025 and has now returned to the 200-week EMA, following a similar path. This suggests XRP could still rise toward $2, but that move may only be temporary before another decline later in 2026. 

The timing also lines up, as the previous rally peaked in March, and XRP has already climbed to $1.6 this March, with a possible move higher still ahead.

A Drop to $0.7-$0.8 Remains Possible

If XRP fails to break above $1.8 to $2, the analyst sees a chance of a deeper drop toward $0.7 to $0.8. This area was once resistance and has not yet been tested as support. It also matches a long-term rising trendline that started from the 2020 lows, which XRP has respected several times.

Although this kind of drop may look worrying, the analyst believes it could present a strong long-term buying chance. This idea depends on XRP following the same pattern as before, where a short rally leads to a final move down to a key support level.

Still, the analyst warns that as long as XRP remains below the 20 EMA and 50 EMA on the weekly chart, the market stays in a risky position. The next few weeks, especially through March and into April or May, will likely decide whether XRP can break higher or continue moving down.

XRP EMA Bearish Cross Points to $0.85 Low, but $8.5 Macro Target Remains in Play

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XRP may still see steeper declines from here due to its EMA bearish cross, but the long-term macro structure still points to an $8.5 target.

XRP has entered a corrective phase after reaching $1.6, with the price now around $1.44, a 10% drop from its recent high. The decline follows a bearish signal where the 21 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, a pattern that has historically led to further downside before a true bottom forms.

Market data shows that while XRP may still fall toward the $0.91 to $0.85 support zone, its long-term structure remains bullish. Specifically, a multi-year symmetrical triangle pattern shows XRP could record a potential push toward $8.5.

Key Points

  • XRP dropped from $1.6 to $1.44, representing a 10% decline, with data showing weakening short-term momentum.
  • The recent declines come after the 21 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA in January 2026, as this pattern often leads to a steep decline before a bottom forms.
  • In the 2022 bear market, XRP fell from $0.93 to $0.2872, marking a 69% decline following the bearish EMA cross.
  • Since the January 2026 crossover, XRP has already declined 28%, and data suggests a possible move toward $0.91 to $0.85.
  • A move above $1.80 and a weekly close above $2.00 could weaken the bearish outlook, with the long-term outlook pointing to a target around $8.5.

21/50 EMA Bearish Cross Shows Potential for Further Decline

Market analyst EGRAG Crypto recently highlighted this. He believes this pullback may not be over yet, mentioning past patterns and current indicators to suggest that XRP could still fall further before finding a solid bottom. Despite this, the analyst maintains a positive outlook for the long term.

EGRAG focused on the 21 EMA crossing below the 50 EMA, a development that has often indicated weakening momentum for XRP. Based on his analysis, this crossover usually leads to another drop before the market finally stabilizes.

In March 2022, this bearish cross appeared when XRP traded at $0.93. After that, the price fell sharply and reached a low of $0.2872 in June 2022, marking a 69% decline from the point of the crossover. According to EGRAG, in many cases, the price tends to fall by about 17% from a local low after such a signal before forming a final bottom.

The latest crossover appeared in January 2026, when XRP was trading above $2. Since then, the price has dropped to $1.44, which means it has already fallen by about 28%. EGRAG says this movement follows past trends and suggests that the market may still need one more drop before turning around.

XRP 1W Chart EGRAG Crypto
XRP 1W Chart | EGRAG Crypto

He expects a final downward move or a liquidity sweep to take place. This could push XRP into the $0.91 to $0.85 range, an area that aligns with major support levels and may mark the end of the correction.

Falling Wedge Provides Crucial XRP Support Zone

EGRAG also called attention to a falling wedge pattern that has continued to dictate XRP’s price action for months. The pattern forms between two sloping lines, where the top line acts as resistance and the bottom line acts as support.

The upper resistance line started forming after XRP dropped from its $3.6 all-time high, and it has repeatedly stopped the price from moving higher. On the other hand, the lower support line began after the November 2024 rally, when XRP moved above $1 and $2. Since then, this level has helped prevent sharper declines.

If the price drops into the $0.85 to $0.91 zone, it would reach this lower support line. EGRAG believes this would represent a possible final step before the market begins to move higher again.

Symmetrical Triangle Eyes $8.5 Target

Despite the weak short-term outlook, EGRAG stressed that the chart shows important overhead levels that could help flip the trend from bearish to bullish. According to him, if XRP rises and closes above $1.8, it would reduce the chances of further decline.

Meanwhile, a stronger signal would come from a weekly close above $2, which would suggest that the bottom is already in place. In that case, the expected drop toward $0.85 might not happen, and the price could start moving up sooner.

EGRAG also suggested that the overall structure still points toward a bullish outlook. Specifically, XRP continues to respect a large symmetrical triangle that has been forming over several years. This pattern could lead to a possible move toward about $8.5, based on a measured breakout.

XRPL Records $1M in XRP Escrow Unlocks as Network Activity Spikes

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The XRP Ledger recently recorded about $1 million in XRP escrow unlocks as the network continues to witness increased activity.

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is seeing renewed interest despite the persistent XRP price struggles. One major sign of this renewed interest is the recent spike in escrow unlocks, with over $1,000,000 worth of XRP released. 

Key Points

  • Escrow unlocks on the XRPL recently surpassed $1,000,000, with 750,218 XRP released as expired timelocks were completed.
  • Many previously locked funds remained unclaimed until recent efforts helped recover them and return them to users.
  • The latest development builds on a trend of increased activity that has dominated the XRPL ecosystem in recent months.
  • For one, data shows error messages involving insufficient XRP reserves rose above 370,000 on March 18, marking a three-year high.
  • Deposits into automated market makers reached a record 70,730 on Feb. 28, and AccountSet transactions climbed to 114,690 on March 20, a new all-time high.

Escrow Unlocks Cross $1M on XRPL

Notably, Vet, an XRPL validator, recently confirmed the recent development. He pointed out a massive increase in escrow unlocks on the network following third-party efforts from First Ledger.

Vet revealed that recent escrow releases went above $1,000,000, with a total of 750,218 XRP unlocked. According to him, most of these escrows came from regular holders and community members who had locked their XRP under time-based conditions. Over time, those conditions expired, but the users either forgot or did not know how to unlock their funds.

Escrowed XRP Deliveries XRPScan
Escrowed XRP Deliveries | XRPScan

He mentioned that Adam, the founder of First Ledger, a decentralized exchange on the XRPL, scanned the entire XRPL to find these inactive escrows. After identifying them, Adam completed the process needed to return the funds to their owners. In addition, First Ledger now carries out regular scans to unlock eligible escrows as soon as they become available.

How Escrow Works on the XRPL

For the uninitiated, the escrow system on the XRPL follows strict rules to ensure that funds stay locked until the set conditions are met. 

Notably, when someone creates an escrow, they define exactly when and how the funds can be released. Even after the FinishAfter time passes, which allows the recipient to claim the funds, the system does not release them automatically.

Instead, the recipient must send an EscrowFinish transaction while the conditions are still valid. If the escrow also includes a CancelAfter deadline and that time passes without completion, the escrow expires. Once this happens, the system blocks any attempt to finish it, meaning the recipient can no longer access those funds.

At this point, only an EscrowCancel transaction can return the XRP to the original sender. If no expiration time was set and no action is taken, the funds can remain there forever. Even escrows managed by Ripple require manual action after they expire, and these releases sometimes happen as late as the third day of the month.

Activity Across the Network Reaches New Highs

Meanwhile, the rise in escrow unlocks comes alongside a broader increase in activity on the XRPL. Notably, several important metrics have reached record levels, showing that more users have begun interacting with the network.

For instance, error messages linked to insufficient XRP reserves for creating new offers rose above 370,000 on March 18, the highest level in three years. This suggests that more users are trying to use the network, even if some run into balance limits.

Moreover, data from XRPScan shows that deposits into automated market makers (AMMs) climbed to a new all-time high of 70,730 on Feb. 28. Meanwhile, AccountSet transactions, which participants use to change account settings without moving funds, reached 114,690 on March 20, the highest daily number ever recorded on the network.

XRPL Account Set Transactions XRPScan
XRPL Account Set Transactions | XRPScan

These figures show that the XRPL has started gaining more attention and usage across different areas. This growth also comes as the network rolls out new features like Permissioned Domains, which seek to attract more institutional use cases for RWA tokenization.