The Crypto Basic

Historical data suggests XRP could drop to a pivotal multi-year support trendline before eventually soaring to $27.

The XRP price has followed a broader market downturn, having slumped 29% this year. However, historical data indicates that this downward trend may be part of a typical cycle structure that XRP has followed since inception. Interestingly, this pattern suggests another drop to a multi-year ascending support could play out before a sharp push to $27.

Key Points

• XRP has dropped 29% since the year started, currently changing hands at $1.3.
• However, historical data indicates that this downturn may actually be part of a broader cycle structure that XRP has followed since inception.
• Currently, XRP trades above a multi-year ascending trendline that has acted as support over the past six years. 
• XRP has experienced two curves that tested this support since 2018, and each support retest led to an eventual breakout.
• If the pattern persists, XRP could again witness another curve to retest the support before a breakout to $27.6.

XRP’s Struggles Fit into Broader Structure 

The pattern was spotlighted by market watcher Chart Nerd amid XRP’s current price struggles. Notably, after dropping from the $3.6 high in July 2025, XRP has continued to witness consistent declines, recording six monthly losses in seven months. From the $3.6 peak, XRP has now dropped nearly 64%.

However, Chart Nerd recently confirmed that the ongoing downturn fits into a broader market structure that has guided XRP’s price action since it began trading in the public market in 2013. 

Specifically, since 2013, XRP has witnessed sequences involving three phases of price movements: an initial peak, a curve to retest an existing multi-year ascending support, and then a breakout to greater heights.

XRP Currently Witnessing Its Curve

Data from the accompanying chart shows that, in the current cycle, XRP recorded the initial peak when it soared to $3.6 in July 2025. Notably, the downturn that has emerged since then currently represents the curve, as XRP battles the bears below key resistance areas.

However, the structure remains bullish due to XRP’s current position above the multi-year ascending support. Notably, this support began forming after XRP dropped to the $0.1140 bottom in March 2020, and has since acted as a strong buffer during price declines, leading to higher lows for XRP.

If the pattern holds, XRP could see steeper declines below the current price of $1.3, potentially reaching a low of around $0.8 to $0.9 to retest the multi-year ascending support. While this may lead to deeper losses in the short term, it could be a bullish move in the long term. “Could you handle the pressure?” Chart Nerd asked.

Potential Breakout to $27 Aligns with Historical Context

Notably, after a retest of the multi-year ascending support trendline, XRP has the potential to stage the third phase of this sequence: breakout. Chart Nerd believes this imminent breakout could push prices to $27.668. For perspective, this high represents a 2,023% increase from the current XRP price.

Interestingly, Chart Nerd’s conviction comes from historical data. Since 2018, XRP has witnessed this same sequence of three phases twice. The first one occurred from 2018 to 2021. In this sequence, it saw the initial peak at $3.31 in January 2018, then formed the curve and retested the support in March 2020, and recovered to $1.96 by April 2021 during the breakout.

For the second sequence, it witnessed the initial peak at $1.96 in April 2021, then dropped to $0.38 in July 2024 to retest the ascending support. From here, it soared to the high of $3.4 by January 2025 during the breakout. Chart Nerd expects a run to $27 this time. However, this remains highly speculative and may not play out as expected.

While XRP has continued to decline alongside the rest of the market, data shows the downturn could present an opportunity.

XRP continues to trade under pressure, changing hands at $1.36 amid a 26% decline this year. Despite the downtrend, the current structure suggests the pullback may merely be part of an ABC correction, and XRP could soar above $8 once it clears the major resistance levels.

Key Points

• XRP currently trades at $1.36, down more than 26% year-to-date and over 61% below its $3.6 peak.
• However, market data indicates that the downtrend may merely be part of an ABC correction within a broader structure.
• This ABC correction began after XRP hit a peak of $3.4 in January 2025, with the A-wave pushing prices to $1.61, the B-wave leading to $3.66, and now the C-wave resulting in a massive downtrend.
• XRP recently bounced from the Fib. 1.414 level at $1.14, but the Fib. 1.618 level near $0.9676 remains a possible downside target.
• A break above an existing descending resistance trendline could signal a move toward $8.15 for XRP, but losing its ascending support would weaken the bullish outlook.

XRP’s Bigger Picture Remains Bullish

Market analyst CoinsKid shared these important levels during his latest analysis. Notably, the market watcher suggested that once the ongoing downtrend concludes, XRP could climb to at least $8.15 in the next major move up. 

He identified a long-term compression pattern on the 1-week chart that began after XRP fell from its $3.31 peak in January 2018. 

From the $3.31 high, the price declined to $0.11 by March 2020 before rebounding to $1.96 in April 2021. Notably, XRP then formed a symmetrical triangle featuring lower highs and lower lows, a pattern that persisted until a breakout in November 2024.

From Breakout to ABC Correction

After the November 2024 breakout, XRP surged from around $0.5 to $3.4 by January 2025. CoinsKid stressed that the move represented a strong wave that cleared major resistance around $0.94 (the July 2023 peak) and $2 (the April 2021 peak). He had expected a push to overcome those levels, and the market delivered exactly that.

Once XRP hit $3.4 in January 2025, the price entered an ABC correction. The A wave pulled XRP down to $1.61 in April 2025. The B wave then pushed it to a new all-time high of $3.6 in July 2025. Since then, the C wave has dragged the price back to $1.36. 

According to CoinsKid, this decline does not mark the start of a bear market. Instead, he believes the rally to $3.66 represents a B wave and the current drop marks a C wave within a larger structure. As a result, he suggested that the current C wave downturn presents an opportunity for investors.

He called attention to similar moments in the past. For instance, XRP fell to $0.28 in June 2022 during a previous C wave and also dropped to $0.5 in October 2024 in another C wave before rebounding in November 2024. To him, those periods presented opportunities, and the current setup looks similar.

What Needs to Happen for $8.15

Chart data also confirms that since the July 2025 high at $3.6, XRP has struggled under a descending white trendline, which has kept the price making lower highs. CoinsKid says XRP must break above that line to confirm the next big move. Right now, that resistance sits between $1.6 and $1.75. If price pushes through that range, he believes it would signal the start of a strong rally toward $8.15.

He compared this to early 2023, when XRP broke above a similar descending white trendline near $0.5. At that time, he turned very bullish. The analyst says he will take the same approach again if XRP clears the current resistance. This means a breakout above $1.6 to $1.75 could open the door for an impulse wave, especially if the market sees renewed liquidity.

Downside Risk and Key XRP Support Levels

CoinsKid also shared what would invalidate his outlook. For context, XRP has also followed an ascending white trendline since 2020, which has provided strong support during downturns. Notably, the support now lies between $0.73 and $0.85. 

The analyst insists that as long as the price stays above that range, the larger structure remains intact, with a wave one completed and an ABC wave two forming before a major third wave higher. However, if XRP drops below the $0.73 to $0.85 support zone, his bullish scenario would weaken.

He also called attention to important Fibonacci levels. Notably, XRP recently bounced from the Fibonacci 1.414 level at $1.14, showing a strong reaction. However, CoinsKid does not believe the market has confirmed a bottom yet. He thinks the price could fall further toward the Fibonacci 1.618 level near $0.9676, which aligns with the July 2023 high, before turning around.

Three AI models, ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and Grok, have updated their XRP price predictions for 2026 amid the current market realities.

XRP has had a rough start to 2026. As of February 2026, the token has dropped 26% since the beginning of the year and now trades at $1.36. This price also puts it 62% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.6. 

The broader crypto market has moved in the same direction, but analysts still believe this pullback remains part of a normal market cycle and could precede a rebound later in the year. Amid the uncertainty, three major AI models, Google Gemini, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and xAI’s Grok, have updated their XRP price predictions for the end of 2026. 

Key Points

• XRP is down 26% in 2026 and trades at $1.36, sitting 62% below its July 2025 peak of $3.6.
• With the current bearish market realities, AI models ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and Grok have updated their XRP price predictions for 2026.
• Google Gemini expects consolidation between $1.15 and $1.5 in the first half of 2026, then a move toward $2.8 to $3.5, setting a $3.15 year-end target.
• ChatGPT projects a base-case range of $2.1 to $2.6 by December 2026, with upside to $3 to $4.2 on higher liquidity and downside to $0.95 to $1.3 in a risk-off market.
• Grok says there is a 50% probability XRP trades around $2 to $3.5 in a base case, but shares a bear case of $0.8 to $1.1 and a bull case of $5 to $8.
• In their projections, these models cite factors such as ETF inflows, the CLARITY Act, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and Ripple’s banking expansion.

Google Gemini’s XRP Price Predictions for 2026

For its prediction, Google Gemini considered regulation, institutional demand, and growing use of the XRP Ledger. The model pointed out that retail interest, demonstrated by Open Interest, has fallen to a yearly low. 

Meanwhile, institutional buying through spot XRP ETFs launched in late 2025 has stayed steady. According to Gemini, this steady ETF accumulation has helped create a stronger price floor even while the market cools.

Then, Gemini called attention to the CLARITY Act moving through the U.S. Senate. If lawmakers pass the bill, the model believes XRP could strengthen its position as a compliant bridge asset for banks, shifting further away from being viewed as just another speculative altcoin. 

It also highlighted rising activity in tokenizing real-world assets on the XRP Ledger, including U.S. Treasuries. The AI chatbot believes that more high-quality assets moving onto the network would create greater demand for XRP to power transactions.

For 2026, Gemini expects two phases. It sees consolidation between $1.15 and $1.5 in Q1 and Q2, then a stronger move between $2.8 and $3.5 in Q3 and Q4. The chatbot set a year-end target of $3.15. 

Gemini added that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by mid-2026, fresh liquidity could flow into risk assets like XRP. However, the model warned that competition from stablecoins such as RLUSD or USDC and delays around the CLARITY Act could keep XRP stuck below $2.

ChatGPT’s XRP Price Predictions for 2026

Notably, OpenAI’s ChatGPT pointed out that XRP’s decline was part of a wider crypto cycle, not a project-specific issue. The model called XRP a high-beta asset that moves with overall market sentiment. It says that unless something breaks structurally for Ripple or the market, assets like XRP usually do not stay depressed once liquidity returns.

ChatGPT presented three possible paths. First, if the market stays uneven but avoids a major macro shock, XRP could recover to between $1.8 and $2.4 by the end of 2026. 

Secondly, if liquidity improves more strongly, through rate cuts or broader crypto ETF inflows, XRP could climb into the $3 to $4.2 range during a typical late-cycle altcoin expansion. 

For the third path, ChatGPT considered a downward scenario. It suggested that if risk-off conditions continue all year, XRP could trade between $0.95 and $1.3 without building a lasting uptrend.

Overall, the chatbot expects XRP to finish December 2026 between $2.10 and $2.60, assuming the market moves from contraction to early recovery in the second half of the year.

Grok’s XRP Price Predictions for 2026

Meanwhile, xAI’s Grok called XRP a token moving through a consolidation phase amid resolved SEC issues, ETF adoption, and cross-border payment use cases. Speaking further, Grok reported that XRP ETFs have brought in $1.3 billion since late 2025. It suggested that approvals in more countries could increase the figure.

Interestingly, the model estimated XRP could capture between 2% and 5% of the $10 trillion-plus global settlements market if adoption expands. It also pointed out that XRP’s RSI levels sit around 45 to 50, with support at $1.20.

For its XRP price predictions, Grok said there was a 30% chance of a bear case between $0.80 and $1.10, a 50% chance of a base case between $2.00 and $3.50 with $2 billion to $3 billion in ETF inflows, and a 20% chance to a bull case between $5.00 and $8.00 if Bitcoin reaches $150,000. 

Overall, Grok expects XRP to end December 31, 2026, around $3.20, assuming the market finds a bottom by Q2 2026 and trends higher through the rest of the year.

Discussion about XRP future price is back in focus as Brad Garlinghouse confirmed that Ripple’s treasury arm processes $13 trillion in annual payment flows.

This disclosure came during a recent interview on FOX Business, in which Garlinghouse outlined how Ripple has spent nearly $3 billion on acquisitions since 2023. The money helped Ripple expand into custody, prime brokerage, treasury management, and stablecoin payments.

A key part of this strategy was acquiring the treasury management firm GTreasury, which is now integrated into Ripple’s infrastructure stack. With XRP currently trading around $1.41, investors are asking what might happen if even a fraction of that $13 trillion shifted onto the XRP Ledger.

Ripple’s $13 Trillion Treasury Machine

During the interview, Garlinghouse explained that Ripple has been building “bridges” between traditional finance and crypto-native systems. He noted that Ripple Treasury processed approximately $13 trillion in payments last year. However, none of these flows were stablecoin-enabled or settled using crypto infrastructure.

At the same time, Ripple is seeing growing demand from more than 1,000 corporate customers. According to Garlinghouse, CFOs and CEOs are increasingly exploring how blockchain solutions can unlock capital trapped overseas and improve liquidity efficiency.

In other words, Ripple already handles massive traditional finance flows, and the missing piece is crypto integration.

What If XRP Becomes the Bridge Asset?

If even part of that $13 trillion were settled using XRP via Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity model, the impact would depend on one critical factor: velocity.

A utility-based valuation model by Grok estimates XRP’s price using this formula:
Price = Annual Volume / (Circulating Supply × Velocity)

With roughly 61 billion XRP in circulation and $13 trillion in annual volume, the base calculation would imply a theoretical price above $200. Grok noted that this scenario assumes each XRP is used once per year.

However, it acknowledged that this suggestion is unrealistic for a fast-settlement token. In a more realistic scenario, according to Grok, if XRP changes hands at a moderate rate, its price could range from $10 to $25. 

However, if institutions hold XRP as liquidity reserves, slowing its movement, the projection rises to $30–$40. If XRP is used purely as a rapid bridge asset and traded within seconds, the price impact would likely be much smaller.

Stablecoins vs. XRP: The Deciding Factor

Another key variable is whether corporates prefer stablecoins over XRP. If payment flows migrate to the XRP Ledger but settle primarily in stablecoins, XRP’s price impact could remain modest even as network usage grows.

However, if XRP becomes the preferred bridge asset connecting currencies and stablecoins, demand would increase significantly. At 5% adoption of $13 trillion, XRP-enabled flows could reach $650 billion annually.

XRP’s Position Today

At $1.41, XRP remains far below the levels implied in aggressive utility-based models. 

Ripple’s treasury volume represents only a fraction of global cross-border payment markets, which are in the hundreds of trillions annually. But the fact that Ripple already processes $13 trillion through traditional rails gives the company a unique strategic position.

The transition to XRPL, if it happens, would be gradual. CFOs move cautiously, regulatory clarity will matter, and stablecoins may lead early adoption.

Still, the scale of the opportunity keeps XRP investors intrigued. If even 2–5% of Ripple Treasury’s reported flows eventually use XRP as a bridge, the long-term valuation case strengthens. If not, XRP may continue to trade more on narrative momentum than on institutional utility.