Franklin Templeton Digital Assets has revealed new details about its XRP exchange-traded fund, highlighting the scale of its exposure to the fourth-largest cryptocurrency.
In a recent update, the firm noted that its XRP ETF, trading under the ticker XRPZ, offers investors exposure to XRP without directly purchasing or self-custodying the asset.
Key Points
Franklin Templeton holds 118M XRP in its new ETF, showing strong institutional crypto exposure.
The XRP ETF, ticker XRPZ, lets investors access XRP without self-custodying the asset.
NAV fell to $16.08 with YTD returns at -18.54%, reflecting market volatility since launch.
Combined with other ETFs, XRP products now hold $1.06B in assets, showing growing adoption.
118 Million XRP on the Books
According to the fund’s first quarterly report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the trust officially commenced operations on November 24, 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the filing shows holdings of 118,387,154 XRP, with a fair value of approximately $216.37 million. Other details include:
Cost Basis: Around $244.8 million
Shares Outstanding: 10.9 million
Net Asset Value (NAV) per Share: $19.85
Notably, the document confirms that 100% of the fund’s net assets were allocated to XRP at year-end, signaling a pure-play structure focused solely on the digital asset.
The ETF is listed on NYSE Arca alongside other major crypto investment products, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and is available to U.S. investors.
Franklin SEC docs for XRP ETF
Website Data Shows Growing Assets
Meanwhile, more recent data from Franklin Templeton’s website indicates that the fund’s total net assets have grown to $243.60 million as of February 17, 2026.
As of the same date, NAV has dipped to $16.08, with a year-to-date return (at NAV) of -18.54%. Since its inception (Nov. 24, 2025), Franklin’s XRP ETF has seen a -23.20% decline in returns.
The performance figures reflect volatility in the crypto market since the ETF’s launch. XRP’s price fell by 57%, from $2.577 in November 2025 to as low as $1.11 in February. At press time, XRP trades at $1.48, still significantly below the value at launch.
This declining price has influenced investor sentiment around the XRP ETF. As noted by the firm, past performance does not guarantee future results, and share prices may fluctuate above or below initial investment levels. This suggests that future prices could be either more promising or more challenging, depending on market conditions.
Institutional XRP Exposure Expands
Nonetheless, the scale of the holdings—over 118 million XRP within weeks of launch—highlights accelerating institutional access to the asset through regulated structures.
Other ETFs that have accumulated significant XRP over the past four months include Bitwise, Canary Capital, Grayscale, and 21Shares. Together with Franklin, XRP ETFs have seen $1.23 billion in inflows, with $1.06 billion in total assets.
The Cardano price shows mixed signals as it faces resistance, with several potential scenarios potentially unfolding based on market momentum and trends.
Cardano (ADA) is changing hands at $0.2841 today, with a decline of 0.91% over the past day. The price has experienced some volatility during the day, ranging between $0.278 and $0.287, reflecting a moderate daily range.
In terms of performance, Cardano’s 7-day performance has seen some improvement with an 8.61% gain. However, the trend has been downward over the past 30 days, showing a 24.35% loss, and a 38.65% drop over the past 90 days.
The trading volume over the past 24 hours has been $57.74 million in spot trading, while the futures market has seen a significantly higher volume of $593.37 million. This suggests that more aggressive trading is happening in the derivatives market, which could indicate anticipation of future price movements.
Moving forward, traders will be looking closely at the key price levels and market trends for potential movements in the near term.
Cardano Price Prediction
From a technical perspective, Cardano is currently facing resistance around the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which sits at $0.30365. This level marks a key area where ADA has struggled to break through in the past few days. If Cardano manages to break this resistance, it could potentially continue its upward movement toward the next Fibonacci level at $0.32916, which is the 0.5 level.
Cardano Price Prediction
This would open the door for further upside, with a broader target of $0.35468 at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. However, ADA has not yet decisively broken the $0.30365 resistance, and failure to do so could lead to further consolidation or even a potential decline.
On the downside, Cardano has found support at the 0.236 Fibonacci level, which corresponds to a price of $0.27208. This support level previously acted as short-term resistance but has now flipped into support. If ADA were to break below this support level, it could test lower levels near the $0.22105 level.
Looking at the Awesome Oscillator, which shows a negative reading of -0.02896, the indicator is confirming bearish momentum in the market. The AO’s red bars turned green, suggesting that selling pressure is fading. For further bullish confirmation, the AO would need to surge to positive readings.
ADA Open Interest Still Declining
Per data from Coinglass, Cardano’s open interest has been showing a declining trend over the past weeks. Open interest peaked from mid-July to mid-October 2025, but has since steadily dropped, mirroring the decreasing ADA price. Currently, the open interest stands at $431.73 million, which is a significant decrease from its previous highs of over $1.95 billion.
ADA Open Interest
As open interest continues to drop, it suggests a weaker market sentiment, potentially causing further volatility unless there is a reversal in market activity. This is a critical indicator to watch, as Cardano’s potential to stabilize or rise significantly in price may depend on whether open interest starts to increase again.
Despite the short-term volatility for XRP, a well-known market commentator has maintained conviction in three long-term bullish targets.
XRP has fallen 60% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66 and now trades around $1.45, extending a downtrend that began in Q4 2025. Despite the slump, analyst Chart Nerd maintains his long-term targets of $8, $13, and $27, arguing that updated forecasts from Standard Chartered support his projections.
Key Points
XRP is down 60% from its $3.66 July 2025 high and currently trades near $1.45.
Despite the downtrend, analyst Chart Nerd insists that XRP remains on track to reach higher targets long term.
In the short term, a breakout above the $1.50 neckline pushed the price to $1.67 but failed to reach the $1.81-$1.82 target before reversing.
Chart Nerd says holding higher lows, even near $1.20, preserves the bullish structure, while losing support could lead to lows around $0.70.
The analyst suggests that Standard Chartered’s long-term targets of $7, $12.60, and $28 aligns with his projections of $8, $13, and $27.
XRP Four-Hour Chart Shows Possible Fakeout
In his latest video analysis, Chart Nerd first highlighted XRP’s 4-hour timeframe, pointing out what he called an Adam and Eve bullish reversal pattern. He had previously identified $1.50 as the neckline that required a breakout. On Sunday, XRP pushed above that level and printed a strong bullish candle that climbed to $1.67.
The analyst calculated a breakout target between $1.80 and $1.90 by measuring from the neckline down to the lows of the V-shaped recovery and projecting that distance upward from the breakout point. This projection placed the objective around $1.81 to $1.82.
XRP Fakeout Above Adam and Eve Neckline
However, XRP stalled at $1.67 and fell back below the broken trendline, returning into the pattern structure instead of holding above $1.50. Chart Nerd confirmed he was uncertain whether the move represented a fakeout or a liquidity sweep that trapped both long and short traders.
He highlighted heightened volatility in recent weeks, noting that XRP had rallied from $1.34 to $1.60 before the failed breakout attempt. Data shows that the asset failed to maintain support at the neckline after breaking out, which he initially wanted to see to confirm continuation.
Support Levels to Watch After Liquidity Hunt
According to Chart Nerd, XRP currently trades within a medium-range structure that has produced sharp downside drops followed by swift recoveries. He stressed that the latest rally and rejection were a mirror image of earlier V-shaped rebounds. To him, this suggests ongoing market manipulation.
The market analyst then called attention to XRP’s liquidity heat map data that shows massive buy-side liquiditystacked between $1.60 and $2.00, with notable concentration above $1.80.
After rejecting $1.50 again, he said XRP may revisit its ascending trendline to build a higher low before attempting another breakout. Chart Nerd noted a potential ascending triangle formation that could develop if the asset prints higher lows while repeatedly testing resistance.
XRP Ascending Trendline Support | Chart Nerd
He stressed that even a pullback toward $1.20, the candle close level from Feb. 5, would still preserve a higher-low structure as long as XRP holds above the prior wick lows.
According to him, it is imperative that XRP maintains its local low. He argued that holding the structure keeps the bullish reversal argument intact and preserves the possibility of reaching the $1.81 to $1.82 target gotten from both the Adam and Eve and ascending triangle formations.
XRP Must Reclaim $1.80 to $2.00 And Flip to Support
Zooming out, Chart Nerd highlighted a more critical level: the $1.80 to $2.00 neckline that XRP had held as support for over a year before losing it. After this breakdown, the price dropped to $1.11 earlier this month before staging a recovery. He now expects a potential retest of that neckline if lower-timeframe breakout targets materialize.
The $2 Neckline | Chart Nerd
However, he warned that reclaiming $1.80 to $2.00 and flipping it back into support remains essential. If XRP breaks above that range in 2026 and holds it, he believes it could lead to new all-time highs later in the year. On the other hand, if the asset rallies into that zone and faces rejection, he sees downside risk extending toward $0.70.
As a result, the analyst called the $1.80 level a decisive line in the sand. Essentially, a sustained move above it strengthens the bullish case, while failure to reclaim it increases the probability of revisiting lower levels.
Standard Chartered Alignment Confirms Long-Term Targets
Meanwhile, Chart Nerd also discussed updated forecasts from Standard Chartered. The bank now projects an average XRP price of roughly $2.80 in 2026 and longer-term targets of $7 for 2027, $12.60 in 2028, and $28 by 2030. He pointed out that the bank actually lowered its previous targets, which makes the projections appear more realistic.
Chart Nerd compared those figures to his own Fibonacci extension levels drawn from the 2020 low to the 2018 all-time high. For four to five years, he has tracked extension targets around $8, $13, and $27. He pointed out that Standard Chartered’s $7, $12.60, $19 and $28 projections sit within less than a dollar of his own levels.
XRP Fibonacci Extension Targets from Chart Nerd
The analyst admitted that the bank forecasts do not guarantee outcomes, but argued that XRP previously reached the 1.272, 1.414, and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions during its last cycle. He believes a similar extension-based expansion could unfold again.
In the short term, he accepts the possibility of further pullbacks, especially if XRP loses $1.47 and fails to build a higher low.Yet he maintains that as long as the broader structure holds and key support levels remain intact, the path toward $8, $13, and ultimately $27 remains feasible.
American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC), the Trump family-backed venture, has officially reached a milestone of over 6,000 Bitcoin in its corporate treasury.
This comes just six months after going public. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, ABTC currently holds 6,039 BTC, valued at approximately $409 million. This places the company as the 17th largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, surpassing firms such as GameStop and Gemini Space Station.
In a post on X, Eric Trump emphasized that this achievement highlights ABTC’s ability to build one of the fastest-growing public Bitcoin treasuries in a short period, demonstrating both speed and scale.
Key Points
ABTC now holds 6,039 BTC (~$409M), making it the 17th largest corporate Bitcoin holder worldwide.
The company fuels its growth through a ‘mining-to-treasury’ approach, keeping the mined Bitcoin rather than selling it.
Since its Nasdaq debut in September 2025, ABTC has achieved a 116% yield in Bitcoin through mining and market purchases.
January 2026 alone saw the addition of 217 BTC to its reserves.
Despite treasury growth, ABTC’s shares have dropped 86%, affected by Bitcoin volatility and lock-up expirations.
Mining-to-Treasury Model Fuels Growth
The company attributes its swift Bitcoin accumulation to a hybrid strategy that combines in-house mining with direct market purchases. Unlike traditional miners, which often sell coins to cover operating expenses, ABTC retains the Bitcoin it mines through a “mining-to-treasury” approach. In January alone, the firm added approximately 217 BTC to its reserves.
From its Nasdaq debut in September 2025 through late January 2026, ABTC achieved a Bitcoin yield of approximately 116%. This reflects real growth from mined and purchased coins rather than dilution through equity issuance. This strategy highlights the company’s focus on steadily building its holdings.
Stock Performance and Market Sentiment
Despite strong Bitcoin accumulation, ABTC’s stock has struggled in the market. Shares have declined 86% since the Nasdaq listing, affected by both a bearish Bitcoin market and the expiration of the lock-up period, which allowed early investors to sell their shares.
Nevertheless, analysts remain confident. Both Roth Capital and H.C. Wainwright & Co. have issued Buy ratings with a $4 price target, signaling belief in the company’s long-term growth prospects despite short-term stock volatility.
In the latest session, ABTC shares closed at $1.09, down 3.54%, and fell an additional 0.14% in after-hours trading.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded at $68,031, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours. These numbers reflect the ongoing volatility impacting both ABTC stock and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Investors may soon gain access to another crypto ETF tracking XRP and other major digital assets, as the SEC nears a key decision deadline.
The U.S. SEC will decide the fate of T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF later this month. Notably, the filing explicitly includes XRP among its eligible assets, marking another major milestone in institutional adoption.
Key Points
The SEC is set to decide on the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF, which tracks multiple assets, including XRP.
A decision is expected on or before February 26, 2026.
An approval would expand the number of ETFs tracking XRP’s performance.
Rising ETF exposure could gradually tighten XRP’s circulating supply, but current data paint a different picture.
SEC to Decide Fate of T. Rowe Active Crypto ETF This Month
The SEC will decide by February 26, 2026, whether to approve, reject, or delay the proposed T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF. Notably, the filing explicitly lists XRP among 5–15 eligible crypto assets for the fund.
If approved, the fund would allow T. Rowe Price, a $1.8 trillion asset manager, to allocate capital to XRP through a regulated structure. As a result, investors who prefer compliant, exchange-traded products over direct token ownership would gain expanded access. Moreover, XRP’s inclusion could strengthen its credibility and potentially boost institutional demand.
For context, T. Rowe Price initially filed its prospectus in October 2025, marking the firm’s first-ever filing for a crypto-related fund. Shortly afterward, NYSE Arca submitted a 19b-4 application to list and trade the shares, which appeared in the Federal Register on November 28, 2025.
Last month, the SEC set an extended review timeline, with a decision due on or before February 26, 2026.
Growing ETF Demand Could Tighten XRP Supply
Once approved, the fund would expand the number of spot ETFs tracking XRP’s performance. Currently, five issuers, such as Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin, 21Shares, and Canary, offer dedicated XRP ETFs. In addition, XRP appears in several U.S.-listed basket ETFs from firms such as Hashdex, Bitwise, and Grayscale.
As institutional demand rises, analysts argue that additional ETF exposure could gradually tighten supply, enhance liquidity, and support long-term price stability.
However, the existing spot XRP ETFs launched in 2025 have so far had a limited impact on the overall supply. Together, they manage about $1.06 billion in assets, translating to roughly 716 million XRP at current prices.
That amount represents only about 1.17% of XRP’s 60.92 billion circulating supply, suggesting that ETF-driven supply compression remains modest for now.
XRP has repeated the more than 60% price crash it witnessed in 2017, but historical data suggests what follows is a massive upsurge.
The XRP price has struggled over the past five months, recording steep declines alongside the rest of the crypto market. Amid the downtrend, XRP dropped to a floor price of $1.11 on Feb. 6, marking a 15-month low. Notably, this marked a 65% decline from the $3.4 high in January 2025.
Interestingly, market data now indicates that this 65% crash mirrored a similar 68% drop for the XRP price during the 2017/2018 cycle. However, what followed that drop was a 1,300% increase to $3.31 by January 2018. If XRP replicates the same response, its price could rebound to $18.
Key Points
XRP has surrendered to the demands of the bears over the past five months, eventually dropping to $1.11 on Feb. 6 before recovering to $1.48.
The decline to $1.11 represented a 65% crash from the January 2025 high of $3.4, and marked one of XRP’s largest losses in recent years.
Market data now confirms that this recent crash mirrored a similar 68% drop recorded by XRP during the 2017/2018 bull cycle.
Interestingly, following the 68% drop in 2017, XRP recovered after a few months, mounting a 1,300% rise to $3.31 by January 2018.
If XRP continues to flow the 2017/2018 pattern, the next rebound effort could trigger similar gains, possibly pushing prices to $18.
XRP Following a Wave-like Pattern
This context was presented by CryptoBull, a prominent market analyst, as the market struggles to find a bottom. According to CryptoBull, XRP’s ongoing downtrend appears to be following a Wave-like structure, which began in November 2024.
Specifically, CryptoBull pointed out that Wave 1 played out when XRP soared from the $0.5 level in November 2024 to the high of $3.4 by January 2025 following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election. This represented a 580% increase within three months and marked the end of Wave 1.
Meanwhile, Wave 2 began immediately as a pullback from the $3.4 high ensued. XRP spent most of 2025 battling this corrective phase, as Wave 2 extended for months. This wave has now slipped into the new year, with the downtrend pushing prices to $1.11 by Feb. 6. Notably, this low represented a 68% drop from the $3.4 high.
History Repeating?
As multiple analysts believe the ongoing downtrend may be nearing its end, CryptoBull expects the subsequent recovery push to take prices to $13. However, historical data suggests this rebound could actually go as high as $18, surpassing the $13 target. Specifically, data shows that XRP followed a similar Wave-like structure in the 2017/2018 cycle.
XRP Wave like Structure
During this period, Wave 1 played out when XRP recovered from $0.005 to $0.3989 by May 2017. After this, Wave 2 brought a correction that lasted for six months, with XRP hitting a bottom of $0.1270 during the correction.Interestingly, this floor price represented a 68% decline from the $0.3989 high in May 2017, similar to the 65% decline in this cycle.
What followed after the Wave 2 correction in 2017 was a massive upsurge as a rebound effort emerged alongside Wave 3. This Wave 3 took prices to a peak of $3.31 by January 2018, representing a 1,300% increase from the $0.2350 price at the time the Wave 3 recovery began.
Could XRP Claim $18?
CryptoBull believes this cycle’s Wave 3 could deliver similar gains. While he suggested that XRP saw a 1,200% rise in 2017/2018 and may rise to $13, the upsurge was actually much higher, at 1,300%. Even if XRP replicated the 1,200% increase, prices could rise from current levels to the $18 mark.
However, it is important to note that previous successes do not guarantee future results. XRP’s prospects may look good at press time, but there is no guarantee that the $1.11 low marked the bottom. Also, the extent of XRP’s recovery from this downtrend remains uncertain.
Shiba Inu faces resistance at a key level, with the price showing neutral momentum and potential for upward movement if it breaks a key barrier.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) changes hands at $0.000006502, experiencing a 0.8% decline over the past 24 hours. The price has witnessed moderate volatility, with a 24-hour trading range from $0.00000644 to $0.000006579. The coin’s price action shows fluctuations, currently settling in the mid-range.
The 24-hour trading volume stands at $124.61 million, down over 20%, highlighting declining activity during this period. Over the past 7 days, Shiba Inu has gained 9.9%, which contrasts with its more substantial 30-day loss of 17.1%.
Looking at Shiba Inu’s current performance, the price has had a hard time moving past the $0.00000658 mark in the past 24 hours, with a pullback observed. If it manages to break this upper range, a further move upwards could be expected. Can SHIB break the resistance?
Shiba Inu Price Analysis
On the technical side, Shiba Inu is currently facing resistance near the $0.00000733 level, as indicated by the Supertrend indicator, which is showing a bearish signal. This resistance zone is significant since SHIB has struggled to break through it recently.
SHIB Price Analysis
The Supertrend suggests that the price could be under pressure should it fail to reclaim this resistance level. If SHIB can break above the resistance, it may be able to test higher levels, potentially moving toward $0.0000075, where additional resistance could be found.
On the support side, the $0.0000051 to $0.0000059 range is a critical zone, with SHIB previously testing this area. If SHIB fails to hold above this support range, a decline toward lower zones around $0.0000045 could be possible.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index, it currently stands at 45.19, suggesting that SHIB is neither overbought nor oversold, remaining in neutral territory. This neutral reading indicates that there’s room for price movement in either direction. A potential bullish signal would come if the RSI crosses above 50, signaling increased buying momentum, while a drop below 40 could suggest bearish pressure.
Shiba Inu Futures Flows
The data from the flow analysis shows mixed results in Bitcoin’s futures and spot markets over various timeframes. In the short-term, the 30-minute and 1-hour inflows indicate a negative trend, with outflows surpassing inflows and showing net decreases in positions. The 30-minute timeframe, in particular, recorded a significant outflow of $58.37K, leading to a net inflow change of -224.15%.
Shiba Inu Futures Flows
Similarly, the 1-hour data shows a negative shift in net inflow, dropping by 1602.71%. However, there is a noticeable rebound in the 4-hour and 8-hour periods. In the 4-hour timeframe, net inflows increased by 124.18%, reflecting positive market sentiment.
On longer time horizons, such as 12 hours, 24 hours, and 3 days, there is a mixed outlook. For example, the 12-hour and 24-hour data show modest outflows, with a 16.26% decrease in net inflows over 12 hours. On the other hand, the 3-day inflows show a recovery, with a net increase of 35.79%, suggesting renewed long-term optimism.
Michael Saylor believes the ongoing Bitcoin downturn will be short-lived. The Strategy executive chair said the current market phase is less severe than previous cycles and expects a strong recovery to follow.
In an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday, Saylor described the present crypto slump as relatively moderate. He explained that earlier downturns were deeper and lasted longer.
By comparison, he expects this period to pass more quickly and subsequently give way to renewed momentum. He added that the market could eventually move into a powerful growth phase.
Key Points
Michael Saylor calls the current Bitcoin slump moderate compared to previous deeper downturns.
He predicts a quick recovery and potential entry into a strong growth phase for the market.
Optimism is supported by increased institutional adoption and stronger banking support for Bitcoin.
Technological innovation and evolving digital credit networks are attracting new capital to the ecosystem.
Strategy holds a significant Bitcoin position (714,644 BTC), but the balance sheet remains resilient despite current prices below acquisition cost.
Institutional Backing Strengthens Outlook
Saylor attributed his optimism largely to structural changes in the market, particularly the rise in institutional participation. Banks, he said, now support Bitcoin far more decisively than they did four years ago.
At the same time, he highlighted the development of digital and banking credit networks, which he believes are reinforcing the digital asset ecosystem. In addition, Saylor cited political support, describing Donald Trump as a “Bitcoin president” during the interview.
Beyond policy and institutional factors, Saylor emphasized the pace of technological innovation. He said new digital advances are emerging every month. In his view, these developments are drawing fresh capital into the asset class and strengthening its long-term foundation.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Position Under Scrutiny
While discussing market conditions, Saylor also addressed questions about his company’s exposure to Bitcoin. Strategy currently holds 714,644 BTC, acquired at an average price of $76,056 per coin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,928, down 0.7% over the previous 24 hours. With prices hovering near $68,000, the company’s holdings remain below their average purchase cost. Meanwhile, Saylor believes green days are ahead. “Spring is coming, and Bitcoin is winning,” he remarked.
Notably, Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves are valued at roughly $49 billion, while the company’s market capitalization stands at about $42.84 billion.
Saylor maintained that the firm’s financial position remains strong, describing its balance sheet as resilient and well-positioned to withstand significant volatility. Furthermore, he added that even if Bitcoin falls to $8,000, the value of the company’s holdings would still be sufficient to cover its debt obligations.
Earlier this month, Michael Saylor also said that Strategy plans to convert its convertible debt into equity within three to six years. Additionally, he reiterated that the company will continue buying Bitcoin each quarter.
Taken together, his remarks signal continued conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even as short-term price pressures persist.
The long-term perspective for Cardano is now in focus, as the price is sitting at a historical demand zone with bullish implications.
This long-term base price level has cushioned weak momentum, serving as a catalyst for a price recovery in the past. As a result, holding it is promising for ADA. As long as this scenario continues, analysts expect an impressive rebound in the future.
Key Points
The long-term perspective for Cardano is now in focus, as the price is sitting at a historical demand zone with bullish implications.
This long-term base price level has cushioned weak price momentum and served as a catalyst for a price recovery in the past.
Cardano bounced from this support in June 2023, rallying over 6x to the cycle’s high of $1.32 in December 2024.
ADA could see a long-term gain of 200% if it revisits the previous resistance level around $0.7914.
The projected rebound hinges on several conditions, one of which is a broader market cycle recovery.
Cardano Nears Historical Demand Zone
A TradingView outlook from a pseudonymous yet prominent analyst indicates that ADA is consolidating around a historical demand zone. An accompanying chart shows the coin trading at $0.2826, near a key support level at $0.250.
Cardano at Historical Demand Zone
The demand zone holds significant importance for Cardano, as it has served as a bedrock for major price recoveries in the past. Notably, this level is near its previous bear-market lows, cushioning prices when sentiment was very sour.
In the past, Cardano bounced from this level, rallying over 6x to the cycle’s high of $1.32 in December 2024. The chart shows that before the final bounce in June 2023, the coin first touched this support in December 2022 and also recovered considerably.
Long-Term Scenarios
The Tuesday analysis is also expecting Cardano to follow this pattern in the long term. The analyst sees the current level as a base from which it will rally when market conditions turn favorable.
Specifically, she projects an over 200% long-term return if ADA revisits the previous resistance level around $0.7914. The price zone closely aligns with the March 2024 highs of $0.798 and $0.810.
Requirements for Rally
Furthermore, the pseudonymous analyst noted that the projected rebound hinges on several conditions, one of which is a broader market cycle recovery.
Despite being one of the major assets in the crypto market, ADA still has a small market share, with Bitcoin and Ethereum dominating the scene. As a result, Cardano would need these two assets to spearhead a recovery attempt before mirroring their price action.
Another requirement is that Cardano holds above the historical demand zone. The coin briefly fell below it on February 6 to reach $0.2205 before rebounding considerably. If it does not close below this support on significant timeframes, then this move to $0.7914 remains possible.
Further, the analysis also indicated a risk-on market condition as a catalyst. If macroeconomic factors look favorable, investors could increase exposure to risk assets like Cardano, which may bring fresh liquidity.
Bitcoin faces immediate resistance near the middle Bollinger Band, with the market watching if it can break higher or test support levels.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market shows some interesting activity as of the latest data. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $67,650.1, experiencing a 0.88% decline in the past 24 hours. The price has fluctuated between $66,724 and $68,425 within the 24-hour range.
Despite this decline in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has shown resilience over a slightly longer time frame. On the 7-day chart, Bitcoin has dropped by 1.66%, which is relatively minimal, especially considering the more significant 30-day decline of 27.76% and a 1-year decrease of 29.36%.
The 24-hour trading volume of $5.17 billion in spot trading indicates active market participation. Meanwhile, the higher futures volume of $51.17 billion shows significant positioning in the derivatives market.
With Bitcoin still facing resistance and lacking any clear direction beyond its current price range, the market’s next key levels to watch will be the lower end of its daily range and its ability to reclaim higher levels above $68,000. Can BTC breach resistance?
Can Bitcoin Breach Key Resistance?
On a daily chart, Bitcoin is currently facing resistance near the $71,179 level, as seen by the middle Bollinger Band. The upper Bollinger Band at $81,209 represents a stronger resistance, while the lower band at $61,148 serves as the key support level.
BTCUSD 1D Chart
Currently, the price is slightly above the middle band, suggesting that Bitcoin may attempt to move towards the upper band if it can maintain its momentum. If Bitcoin breaks above the middle band and sustains that level, a move toward $81,209 could be possible. On the other hand, if the price fails to hold above the $71,179.21 resistance, it might test the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing the bearish trend.
In terms of momentum, the Directional Movement Index shows that the -DI is currently higher than the +DI, signaling that bearish momentum is still dominant. The ADX value of 57.46 reflects a strong trend in the market, but it is slightly tilted toward bearish pressure, confirming that the selling strength is currently stronger than the buying strength. If the +DI crosses above the -DI, Bitcoin could enter a bullish phase, potentially paving the way for a breakout above the resistance levels.
BTC OI-Weighted Funding Rate
Additional chart data shows Bitcoin’s price action alongside its OI-Weighted Funding Rate, with Bitcoin priced above $67,000 as of February 18, 2026. The funding rate has been fluctuating throughout January and February, moving between positive and negative values, which indicates changing market sentiment. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate peaked at around 0.01% in early January before dropping to -0.01% in early February.
OI-Weighted Funding Rate
Notably, as Bitcoin’s price slumped, the funding rate became negative, signaling bearish sentiment and more short positions. Recently, the funding rate has been rising again, reaching 0.0065% before settling at 0.0023% today. Despite the recent decline, this suggests a potential shift towards more long positions. Traders will closely watch whether the funding rate continues to rise alongside Bitcoin’s price or if the market remains cautious.
