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XRP Has Now Completed Its ABC Irregular Flat Wave, with Next Wave Eyeing $5.85

Mark Brennan
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XRP Has Now Completed Its ABC Irregular Flat Wave, with Next Wave Eyeing $5.85

XRP has now completed the ABC corrective structure under Wave 4, with the next wave looking to bring a recovery push toward a new all-time high.

The XRP price has struggled over the past few months, having lost the $3 and $2 psychological levels to trade at $1.38 as of press time. The downturn spilled into this year, with XRP down 24.81% year-to-date. However, chart data suggests this bearish phase is a natural response to an earlier Wave 3 rally.

Specifically, the downtrend represents an ABC irregular flat wave within a larger Wave 4 correction for XRP. Further data now confirms that XRP may have completed this corrective wave, with the forthcoming Wave 5 targeting a rally to $5.85, a new all-time high.

Key Points

  • XRP has struggled in the last few months, having relinquished the important psychological support levels around $3 and $2.
  • Chart data confirms that this ongoing downtrend followed a Wave 3 rally that pushed XRP to $3.4 in January 2025.
  • XRP now appears to be trading within a corrective Wave 4 pattern, which features a smaller ABC irregular flat that has now taken prices to $1.3.
  • Further data suggests that the ongoing corrective wave may be close to an end, as XRP completes the ABC irregular flat.
  • What could follow is a recovery from Wave 5, the last phase of the Elliott Wave structure, with XRP looking to claim $5.85 as an ultimate target.

XRP Completes Waves 1 to 3 

This idea came from Dark Defender, a well-known XRP market commentator, as XRP battles to recover some of the losses of the past weeks. Specifically, data from the accompanying chart confirms that the ongoing market turbulence forms part of a broader 5-phase Elliott Wave structure that began as far back as July 2022.

Notably, Wave 1 began as XRP sought to rebound from the $0.31 low amid the Terra implosion of May 2022. Wave 1 helped XRP recover some of the losses, rising from $0.31 in July 2022 to a local top of $0.94 by July 2023, marking the end of the wave. It bears mentioning that the pivotal July 2023 ruling in the SEC vs Ripple case contributed mostly to the $0.94 peak.

From here, XRP slipped into Wave 2, which triggered a pullback from $0.94 to a low of $0.38 by July 2024. Wave 3 began immediately after, bringing relief to the bulls. Interestingly, Wave 3 marked the largest phase, resulting in an XRP rally from $0.38 in July 2024 to $3.34 by January 2025. This marked a 794% increase within six months.

XRP Now Within Wave 4

Since the $3.34 peak, XRP has struggled as the market tries to find a new capital influx for another sustained uptrend. Notably, within this period, XRP has also witnessed occasional upsurges like the jump to $3.66 in July 2025, but these surges have not been sustainable.

According to the chart, XRP now trades within Wave 4 amid the ongoing struggles. This corrective Wave 4 resolved into an ABC irregular flat structure that has defined XRP’s price action since January 2025. Specifically, sub-Wave A aligned with a price drop from the $3.4 high to a $1.61 low in April 2025.

XRP Elliott Wave Structure Dark Defender
XRP Elliott Wave Structure | Dark Defender

After this, sub-Wave B emerged with a rebound push, taking XRP to the $3.66 all-time high by July 2025. What followed was a massive dump from sub-Wave C. This sub-Wave C has endured until now, triggering a 62% collapse from the $3.66 peak, as XRP now trades for $1.38 at press time.

Wave 5 Recovery Could Push Prices to $5

According to Dark Defender, XRP appears to have completed the ABC sub-structure within the corrective Wave 4. He suggested that Wave 5 may now begin playing out. However, XRP would need to find a solid bottom and begin a recovery push to slip into Wave 5. This would demand strength from the broader market.

Dark Defender expects the Wave 5 to eventually take XRP to a peak of $5.85, aligning with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level. Notably, this would represent a 323.9% increase from XRP’s current price.

Shiba Inu Could 22x from Bear Trap Phase—Analyst

Elendu Benedict
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Shiba Inu Could 22x from Bear Trap Phase—Analyst

The current Shiba Inu pullback aligns with a market phase that usually precedes a breakout and subsequent parabolic price expansion.

For context, this period represents the “bear trap” phase, which comes during price accumulation. While it tests the patience of holders, what follows could take Shiba Inu to price levels never seen before in its history.

Key Points

  • The current Shiba Inu pullback aligns with a market phase that usually precedes a breakout and subsequent parabolic price expansion.
  • This period represents the “bear trap” phase, which comes during price accumulation.
  • The exact length, bottom, or timeframe for this phase to fully play out remains uncertain, but it will eventually give way to a bullish development.
  • The accumulation phase is part of three market phases, preceded by the crash and retrace periods.
  • A massive expansion is the endgame of these three market phases.

Shiba Inu Bear Trap

Usually, traps are meant to catch bearish investors off guard. In this case, the bear trap phase is the final stage of a broader accumulation phase, which precedes a breakout. This aims to confuse bears, making them think they are still in control before wrecking them with a bullish expansion.

Analyst Vuori Trading emphasized this course in his recent X tweet, calling the current market phase pure manipulation before SHIB shoots higher. While he did not specify the exact length, bottom, or timeframe for this phase to fully play out, he remains resolute that it will eventually give way to a bullish development.

Part of the Three Market Phase

An accompanying chart further explains that the accumulation phase is part of three market phases. Before it is the crash and retrace periods, which bear different characteristics.

Shiba Inu Market Phase/Vuori Trading
Shiba Inu Market Phase/Vuori Trading

For perspective, the crash kicked in after the 2021 all-time high of $0.0000885. It featured a severe price downtrend, with SHIB falling over 90% to reach the $0.0000079 support level in June 2022. 

Subsequently, the retrace phase followed—a period of brief market rebound. SHIB touched a price floor at $0.0000054 in June 2023 and consolidated for months before breaking out in November 2024.

Prices of $0.0000456 in March 2024 and $0.0000334 in December 2024 marked the retracement phase highs before the current accumulation began. Notably, SHIB has lost over 80% of its value, chopping slowly and steadily toward the current support area. Now that the bear trap phase is progressing, the corrective phase may be nearing its end.

A 22x Shiba Inu Rally Afterward

Interestingly, the analyst sees a massive expansion as the endgame of these three market phases. He expects the meme coin to break out once it finished with accumulation and reach unprecedented prices.

Specifically, his target is a 22x rise to $0.00014, which would see SHIB remove two zeroes from its current market price of $0.0000060. In percentage terms, this represents a 2,233% increase.

Despite the bullish take, the commentator warned that this is not financial advice. Moreover, there is no guarantee that SHIB could rally that high, as market uncertainty and failed capital reallocation to meme coins continue to hamper momentum.

Ex Ripple CTO Calls Bitcoin a ‘Technological Dead End’ Amid XRP Decentralization Clash

Zabi
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Ex Ripple CTO Calls Bitcoin a ‘Technological Dead End’ Amid XRP Decentralization Clash

David Schwartz, Ripple’s Emeritus Chief Technology Officer, has described Bitcoin as “a technological dead end,” reigniting debate across the crypto sector.

His remarks, posted on social platform X, come during a heated exchange over the decentralization of the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

Key Points

  • David Schwartz described Bitcoin as “largely a technological dead end,” emphasizing adoption over technical innovation.
  • An early XRPL software bug led to the loss of the first 32,569 ledgers, sparking criticism of XRPL’s decentralization.
  • Schwartz defended XRPL, saying the network continued without a rollback, reflecting practical decentralization.
  • He contrasted this with Bitcoin, which required coordinated interventions after its 2010 bug and 2013 overflow incident.
  • The discussion highlights ongoing debates over what constitutes true decentralization in blockchain networks.

Schwartz Questions Bitcoin’s Technological Importance

The discussion began with a question from XRP community member Khaled Elawadi. He asked Schwartz whether he had considered contributing to Bitcoin development again after co-creating the XRPL.

Schwartz responded, “Not really.” From there, the exchange shifted to Bitcoin’s broader technical direction.

Specifically, Schwartz said he believes Bitcoin is “largely a technological dead end,” arguing that innovation at the blockchain layer no longer plays a decisive role in Bitcoin’s success. To illustrate his view, he compared Bitcoin to the U.S. dollar. In both cases, he suggested, adoption and network strength outweigh technical design.

XRPL Ledger History Comes Under Scrutiny

Schwartz’s remarks surfaced amid an ongoing dispute with Bitcoin advocate Bram Kanstein. In particular, the disagreement centers on whether XRPL is truly decentralized.

Kanstein has claimed that XRPL’s effective history starts at Ledger 32,570. He pointed to an early software bug that led to the loss of the first 32,569 ledgers. Consequently, Kanstein views the adjusted starting point as evidence of centralized control. 

However, Schwartz pushed back against that interpretation, describing the incident as a technical glitch from the network’s early days. He explained that participants chose not to implement coordinated changes after the issue surfaced. Instead, they continued operating from the existing ledger state.

According to Schwartz, that decision reflects decentralization in practice. He maintained that the community accepted the outcome without orchestrating a rollback.

Bitcoin’s Past Incidents Enter the Debate

To strengthen his argument, Schwartz pointed to Bitcoin’s own history. He referenced the 2010 bug that led to a coordinated rollback of the Bitcoin blockchain. He also mentioned the 2013 value overflow incident.

Schwartz noted that both events required collective action to resolve critical flaws. In his view, these episodes show that even Bitcoin has faced moments requiring coordinated intervention.

Taken together, his comments suggest that no blockchain is entirely insulated from governance challenges. Ultimately, the exchange has revived long-standing tensions between XRP and Bitcoin supporters. More broadly, it underscores the continuing debate over what true decentralization means in practice.

Ripple President Frames 2026 as Institutional Adoption at Scale for Ripple and XRP

Lele Jima
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Ripple President Frames 2026 as Institutional Adoption at Scale for Ripple and XRP

Ripple President Monica Long has described this year as a defining period for Ripple and XRP due to institutional adoption at scale. 

Speaking at the XRP Community Day virtual event yesterday, Long’s remarks signal a strategic shift toward deeper integration with the enterprise and financial sectors.

Key Points

  • Ripple President Monica Long has declared this year a turning point for institutional adoption at scale.
  • She expects the full impact of this adoption phase to become clear by December 31, 2026.
  • Institutions are already using XRP for settlements, treasury management, and foreign exchange bridging.
  • Growing institutional interest is also evident in rising demand for XRP ETFs, with cumulative net inflows surpassing $1.23 billion.

“Institutional Adoption at Scale” for XRP and Ripple

During the event, Long was asked to define the moment for Ripple and XRP in just a few words. In response, she stated, “institutional adoption at scale”. While the concise description intrigued many listeners, Long added that the full impact of this phase would become clearer by December 31.

Essentially, her comments suggest that Ripple expects measurable progress before year-end, likely through new partnerships and deeper integration of XRP into institutional workflows.

If achieved, large-scale institutional adoption could significantly enhance XRP’s real-world utility, boost market liquidity, and strengthen Ripple’s position within the global financial infrastructure.

Ripple Lays the Foundation for XRP Institutional Adoption

While the year remains in its early stages, Ripple has already begun to back the optimism with concrete actions.

Last week, the company highlighted the evolution of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) into a financial infrastructure for institutions. As part of this shift, Ripple suggests that institutions now use XRP for transaction fees, cross-border payments, lending, and foreign exchange bridging.

Moreover, Ripple is actively supporting the XLS-66 initiative, which aims to introduce a native lending framework on the XRPL. This development would enable institutional clients to earn yield on their XRP holdings directly on the ledger.

Meanwhile, Ripple’s rebranding of Hidden Road into Ripple Prime further reinforces this strategy. By integrating XRP into Ripple Prime’s collateral and liquidity operations, the company has positioned the token at the center of institutional financial activity.

As adoption of Ripple Prime expands, XRP’s institutional usage could scale alongside it, reinforcing Ripple’s broader growth narrative.

Institutional Adoption via ETFs

In parallel, XRP’s institutional adoption continues to gather momentum. This trend is evident in the sustained demand for spot XRP ETFs, which have recorded cumulative net inflows of $1.23 billion since their November launch.

Furthermore, several companies, including Evernorth, Webus, and VivoPower, now hold XRP as a reserve asset on their balance sheets. Evernorth is currently building the world’s largest XRP reserve. Other firms could soon follow suit, potentially driving broader corporate adoption.

Adding to this momentum, Ripple yesterday announced a strategic partnership with Aviva Investors to support the launch of regulated investment funds on XRP’s underlying blockchain. With more than ten months before 2026 draws to a close, the full scale of institutional adoption remains to be seen.

Ripple Director Explains How the Upcoming XLS-81 Could Bring Institutional Liquidity to XRP

Sam Wisdom Raphael
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Ripple Director Explains How the Upcoming XLS-81 Could Bring Institutional Liquidity to XRP

A Senior Ripple Director recently explained how the upcoming XLS-81 amendment could bring institutional liquidity to the XRP ecosystem.

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) community has approved Permissioned DEX (XLS-81), just one week after activating Permissioned Domains (XLS-80). Validators have already backed the amendment, and the network is set to enable it in six days. This follows the earlier rollout of Credentials (XLS-70), which went live in September 2025.

Amid the anticipation, Antonio Kaplan, Ripple’s Senior Director of Engineering, recently shared how this new feature could bring institutional liquidity into the XRP ecosystem. In a blog post, Kaplan explained that XLS-81 gives regulated financial institutions a way to access on-ledger liquidity without compromising on compliance.

Key Points

  • The XRPL community has begun with efforts to bring institutional liquidity to the XRP ecosystem.
  • The rollout began with Credentials (XLS-70) in September 2025 and continued with Permissioned Domains (XLS-80), activated on Feb. 4.
  • Building on this, the community has approved Permissioned DEX (XLS-81), set to go live in six days.
  • The feature will enable both open and permissioned markets on the same ledger and allow institutions to access shared liquidity while the open DEX continues to function as usual.
  • This shared liquidity model supports atomic settlement and reduces reliance on pre-funded nostro and vostro accounts.
  • Ripple plans to use this structure to route asset conversions for cross-border payments, B2B transfers, and RLUSD-funded corridors through the Permissioned DEX.

Why Permissioned DEX Matters

In his blog post, Kaplan pointed out that XRPL’s built-in DEX has handled trades efficiently for over a decade. Over time, the network added tools such as Automated Market Makers (AMMs) and Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs).

However, with XLS-81, XRPL adds a permissioned layer to its DEX. Kaplan explained that this will allow regulated institutions to trade on XRPL while meeting strict compliance standards. Institutions can now use a system that runs on the same ledger as the open market instead of building separate private blockchains.

He clarified that the open DEX would continue operating exactly as it does today. Anyone can still place and fill offers. However, the new feature simply gives institutions and developers the option to create order books that demand verified credentials. 

Kaplan stressed that most regulated institutions cannot freely handle open systems unless they know who stands on the other side of a trade. Essentially, XLS-81 directly addresses this concern.

A Hybrid System That Connects Open and Regulated Markets

Kaplan called XLS-81 the first system to combine permissioned and permissionless markets at protocol. He noted that earlier attempts at institutional DeFi did not yield results because they separated capital into closed pools. According to him, those “walled gardens” lacked deep liquidity and produced weak pricing.

Permissioned DEX avoids this problem by building regulated order books into the existing XRPL DEX. As both permissioned and open markets operate on the same ledger, traders can move between them easily. Kaplan said this creates a shared liquidity engine instead of splitting liquidity across disconnected platforms.

He added that institutions will gain access to deep, shared pools of liquidity without scattering capital across multiple venues. The unified ledger also supports near-instant settlement across payment corridors. At the same time, issuers can enforce jurisdiction-specific rules and Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements directly at protocol.

How XLS-70, XLS-80, and XLS-81 Work Together

Kaplan compared the system to international travel to explain how the amendments work together. He called Credentials (XLS-70), enabled in September 2025, a digital passport. Notably, trusted authorities will issue these credentials to allow participants prove identity or compliance status on-ledger without exposing private data.

Moving on, he then highlighted Permissioned Domains (XLS-80), which went live on Feb. 4. This feature allows institutions to define which credentials participants must hold before accessing certain liquidity pools, similar to how countries set visa requirements.

Finally, he called Permissioned DEX (XLS-81)  the transportation network. Specifically, it introduces native order books that accept trades only from verified participants. As these order books run directly on XRPL, transactions will settle instantly and follow built-in compliance rules. 

With XLS-81 scheduled to activate in six days, all three amendments will work together to support institutional-grade payments and settlement.

Real-World Use Cases and Liquidity Growth

Meanwhile, Kaplan highlighted foreign exchange as one of the main use cases. Notably, institutions can execute on-chain FX and settlement using shared liquidity while achieving instant local payout. He also said corporates can use the system for B2B and treasury payments, converting stablecoins and fiat-backed assets across regions.

Moreover, Stablecoin issuers could also see stronger liquidity and wider adoption through permissioned markets. When more regulated flows move onto the XRPL, they will add depth to both open and permissioned order books.

Further, Kaplan noted that institutions no longer need to pre-fund accounts in multiple corridors through traditional nostro and vostro arrangements. Instead, they can tap shared liquidity on XRPL and complete atomic settlement. This will reduce settlement delays, lower counterparty risk, and provide transparent FX pricing.

Ripple’s Plans for Permissioned DEX

Kaplan said Ripple plans to use Permissioned DEX as an on-ledger asset conversion mechanism within its payment and treasury workflows. Ripple intends to route the conversion step of cross-border payments, B2B transfers, and stablecoin-based settlements through permissioned order books.

Only verified liquidity providers will participate in those order books. Depending on pricing and liquidity, transactions may convert directly between two assets or move through intermediate pairs before settling atomically on XRPL.

Analyst Zach Rector Explains XRP $7 Price Target Using Silver Comparison

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Analyst Zach Rector Explains XRP $7 Price Target Using Silver Comparison

Analyst Zach Rector has outlined a detailed case for a $7 XRP price target based on the historical movements of silver. 

He argues that XRP’s current market structure closely mirrors silver’s historic breakout cycle before its multi-year rally. Notably, the analysis positions XRP near what he believes is the final phase of its bear market.

Key Points

  • Analyst Zach Rector targets $7 for XRP, comparing it to silver’s historic rally.

  • XRP may be near the end of its bear market after a 70% correction from its peak.

  • Rector sees a 500–600% potential move from $1, placing XRP within $5–$10 range.

  • $7 is a key psychological level, with profit-taking likely before possible double-digit highs.

$7 XRP Target Explained

According to Rector, the $7 level is not a random forecast but a measured target derived from comparing XRP’s price action with silver’s long-term chart. He points to September 2022, when silver made its final pullback below $20. The precious metal dropped to around $17 before launching into a nearly 600% rally that later pushed prices above $120.

Rector argues that XRP is now in a similar position. Measuring a comparable 500–600% move from the $1 area places XRP near $7, which sits in the middle of his $5 to $10 bull market range.

XRP Near the End of Its Bear Market Phase

This analysis comes after XRP price touched $1.11 last week, its lowest level since 2024. Many market watchers and influencers, including Rector, have publicly discussed buying the XRP dip during this historic decline.

XRP is now trading around $1.43 after an over 30% price rebound, but it remains well below its peak. Rector notes that XRP has already corrected roughly 70% from its all-time high, a level consistent with past market resets.

From his perspective, price entries around the $1 range may not matter much once the next major rally begins if XRP delivers a multi-hundred-percent move during the next bull market.

Silver vs XRP

Rector’s thesis partly relies on research from Waters Above Crypto, which compares XRP to silver. Silver took about three and a half years to rise from its 2022 low to its 2026 peak.

However, Rector believes XRP could go through a similar cycle much faster because crypto moves more quickly and is more volatile. Both charts show similar patterns: double tops, large pullbacks, long periods of consolidation, and then sharp upward moves.

$7 As A Psychologically Important Level

Beyond technical symmetry, Rector highlights $7 as a psychologically important level. It represents roughly double XRP’s previous all-time high of $3.66, placing it in a zone where profit-taking pressure is likely to increase as prices approach $10.

While Rector has not ruled out double-digit XRP in a strong bull run, he calls $7 a realistic midpoint where traders may consider taking profits, while long-term holders continue to position for higher levels.

Although he stresses that no outcome is guaranteed, Rector believes the risk-to-reward profile favors the upside as XRP prepares for its next major move.

Peter Schiff Says 50% Bitcoin Dip Is a Real Opportunity to Sell BTC Before It Loses Another 50%

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Peter Schiff Says 50% Bitcoin Dip Is a Real Opportunity to Sell BTC Before It Loses Another 50%

The major Bitcoin price correction of 50% from its October 2025 all-time high continues to stir conversation in the financial world.

Gold advocate Peter Schiff is warning that the real opportunity now is to exit the market. “The real opportunity is to sell Bitcoin before it loses the other half of its market value,” Schiff wrote on X.

He criticized what he described as biased mainstream media coverage portraying the latest crash as a buying opportunity. His comments come as Bitcoin plunges toward the $60,000 region, wiping out roughly half of its value from its peak above $126,000.

Key Points

  • Peter Schiff says now is the time to sell Bitcoin before further losses.

  • Bitcoin dips to $66K, nearly 50% below its October 2025 high.

  • Saylor calls volatility a “gift to the faithful,” keeps buying BTC.

  • Gary Vee sees Bitcoin below $70K as an “unexpected buying opportunity.”

Bitcoin Slides Toward $60K

Notably, Bitcoin traded at $60,000 last Friday and has yet to fully recover. The premier cryptocurrency swiftly rebounded by 20% to $72,200 days later. However, bearish pressure is once again taking the upper hand.

Bitcoin is now trading at $66,100, down 4.31% today and 11.55% over the past week. At this price, Bitcoin remains 47.5% below its all-time high.

Source: TradingView
Source: TradingView

Market watchers attribute the selloff to profit-taking from early investors, reduced ETF inflows, and broader risk-off sentiment in global markets.

Meanwhile, many industry leaders are calling current prices a generational buying opportunity. However, Schiff does not share this view.

Schiff Doubts Bitcoin Historical Resilience

Responding to Schiff’s tweet, X user Fenak argued that Bitcoin has historically rebounded from similar 50% drawdowns and that entering at $66,000 is preferable to buying at $125,000. Meanwhile, Schiff dismissed the idea, saying past recoveries do not guarantee future gains.

“Bitcoin’s history is too short to conclude that it will always do anything,” he replied.

Schiff has long maintained that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and has consistently compared it unfavorably to gold, which he views as a more reliable store of wealth.

Another commenter questioned why he focuses so heavily on Bitcoin instead of gold, suggesting he fears it could eventually challenge gold’s monetary role.

X user Bull Brezza said the 50% drop should not be seen as a failure, but as a normal feature of scarce assets. He also pointed out that gold fell about 45% between 2011 and 2015, only to rise again later.

Meanwhile, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has called volatility a “gift to the faithful”. He has continued to buy BTC even as prices dip, with his holdings now sitting at multi-billion-dollar losses. Saylor is also urging investors to buy.

Gary Vee Buying Bitcoin Below $70K, Calls It an “Opportunity”

As The Crypto Basic reported today, VaynerMedia CEO Gary Vaynerchuk said he is accumulating Bitcoin as it trades below $70,000. He describes the current pullback as an “unexpected buying opportunity.”

Analyst Ali Martinez identified $52,040 as a potential bottom based on the −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band.

Meanwhile, Bernstein maintains a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026, arguing that the correction reflects weak sentiment rather than structural damage.

Is Bitcoin Now Officially in a Bear Market? What Historical Data Says

Sam Wisdom Raphael
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Is Bitcoin Now Officially in a Bear Market? What Historical Data Says

Multiple analysts believe the ongoing Bitcoin downtrend merely represents a bull market correction, but what does market data say?

Bitcoin has now fallen for five straight months and trades 46% below its all-time high of $126,000. However, despite this downtrend, analysts still refuse to call it a full bear market. They believe Bitcoin is simply going through a correction within a larger bull cycle, not entering another crypto winter.

Nonetheless, XWIN Research, a Japanese research firm, disagrees. The firm argues that Bitcoin has already entered the early stage of a bear market. According to XWIN, many investors fail to see it because today’s price levels remain higher than what they saw in previous bear markets.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin has fallen 46% from its $126,000 peak and now trades around $67,900 after five straight months of decline.
  • XWIN Research says Bitcoin has entered an early winter phase, with the Fear & Greed Index at 14 and structural selling pressure visible in capital flow data.
  • In 2024, $10 billion in inflows expanded the market cap, but in 2025, over $300 billion in inflows coincided with a market cap decline.
  • Net realized losses recently hit $13.6 billion, matching extremes seen during the 2022 bear market, though past bottoms formed about five months after peak losses.
  • Bitcoin has declined 41% over four consecutive losing months, a pattern last seen in 2018, with a similar drawdown previously recorded during the 2022 bear market.

Investors Fail to Recognize the Bear Market

In a recent CryptoQuant analysis, XWIN Research concluded that the current market no longer shows a healthy pullback inside a bull trend. Instead, it looks closer to the early phase of a crypto winter, or even a return to one. 

The firm presented reasons why many participants resist this idea. First, investors still remember the pain of 2022, and they do not want to relive it. In addition, Bitcoin trades at much higher nominal prices than it did during the last winter, which makes the situation feel different. 

Further, the launch of spot ETFs, stronger institutional adoption, and improved infrastructure also give many people confidence that history will not repeat itself. For instance, industry leaders like Strategy’s Michael Saylor had suggested that the bull market would extend to this year.

Why Bitcoin May Have Already Entered a Bear Market

Still, XWIN Research stressed that price alone does not define winter. Notably, supply and demand changes, capital flows, and sentiment provide the real data. Right now, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 14, a level classified as Extreme Fear. The firm noted that similar sentiment drops appeared in past cycles before prices adjusted downward.

Capital flow data also points to winter conditions. In 2024, $10 billion in inflows helped expand Bitcoin’s market cap. However, in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed into the market, but the market cap declined. 

XWIN Research sees this as a sign of ongoing selling pressure. On-chain profit data also shows falling realized gains despite high price levels, which indicates weakening internal strength.

Based on this data, XWIN Research believes Bitcoin may already be entering winter, even if higher prices and stronger infrastructure delay broader recognition. The firm said it would reconsider this view if ETF inflows stabilize and if on-chain distribution slows clearly.

How History Defines Bitcoin Winter

Meanwhile, the chart that accompanied XWIN’s report presented two definitions of Bitcoin winter. Under a broad definition, winter stretched from the November 2021 peak to the November 2022 bottom. During that one-year period, Bitcoin declined from its all-time high and dragged the entire crypto market into a bearish trend.

Bitcoin Bear Market Ideas XWIN Research
Bitcoin Bear Market Ideas | XWIN Research

However, under a narrower definition, the core winter phase ran from May 2022 to November 2022. This period included the collapse of LUNA, the failure of Three Arrows Capital (3AC), and the bankruptcy of FTX. 

Analysts Split on What Comes Next

However, not everyone agrees that a bear market has already begun. Investor and commentator Mr. Crypto Whale shared what he calls his 2026 Bull Run Roadmap. 

Notably, he believes the current downtrend this month is a bear trap and will lead to a Bitcoin breakout in March. He predicts an altcoin season in April and a new all-time high around $215,000 in May. After that, he sees a bull trap in June, a liquidation cascade in July, and the official start of a bear market in August.

Meanwhile, Bitcoinsensus reported that Bitcoin’s net realized losses have reached levels similar to the worst moments of the 2022 bear market. Just three days ago, realized losses hit $13.6 billion. 

However, Bitcoinsensus reminded investors that in 2022, realized losses peaked about five months before the actual market bottom formed, which shows that bottoms take time to develop.

CryptoQuant author Woo Minkyu also warned three months ago that Bitcoin had already entered a bear market, citing the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), while it still traded above $86,000. Today, Bitcoin trades at $67,900. 

A Downtrend That Mirrors Past Bear Markets

Also, Bitcoin’s recent performance looks increasingly similar to past bear markets. The asset has recorded four consecutive months of losses and remains on track to log a fifth. Over this period, Bitcoin has dropped 41%. 

The last time Bitcoin posted four straight months of declines was during the 2018 bear market, not even during 2022. The last time it suffered a 41% drawdown occurred during the 2022 bear market.

Peter Brandt Sparks Bitcoin Banana Debate With Narrowing Outlook

Elendu Benedict
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Peter Brandt Sparks Bitcoin Banana Debate With Narrowing Outlook

It is a war of the Bitcoin banana narrative as market veteran Peter Brandt shares conflicting views with an executive from leading asset manager Fidelity.

Brandt particularly called out Jurrien Timmer, who is the director of global macro at Fidelity, for the outlook from his own version of the Bitcoin banana chart. The market veteran called the chart “food from Aruba,” taunting that it looks fabulous.

Key Points

  • It is a war of the Bitcoin banana narrative as market veteran Peter Brandt shares conflicting views with an executive at leading asset manager Fidelity.
  • Brandt particularly called out Jurrien Timmer, who is the director of global macro at Fidelity, for the outlook from his own version of the Bitcoin banana chart.
  • His chart shows that the apex cryptocurrency is near the banana peel—marked in green and has historically aligned with its base—and should fall into it, as in past cycles.
  • The Fidelity chart shows that Bitcoin is in a corrective phase but marks $60,000 as a possible bottom.

War of the Bitcoin Banana Chart

Brand took to X on Wednesday to call out Timmer for “playing around” with his version of the Bitcoin banana chart. Notably, this technical structure features BTC’s all-time chart in a curved range and has accurately predicted BTC tops and bottoms in previous cycles.

Peter Brandt's Bitcoin Banana Chart
Peter Brandt’s Bitcoin Banana Chart

The veteran trader has been big on this structure, as it has formed his narrative that Bitcoin could revisit multi-year lows to find support before any further bullish break. His chart shows that the apex cryptocurrency is near the banana peel—marked in green and has historically aligned with its base—and should fall into it, as in past cycles.

However, he shared another version of the Bitcoin banana chart from Timmer in the tweet. While the Fidelity exec’s exposition does not explicitly regard the graph as a banana chart, it shared similarities in shape.

Conflicting Stance

The Fidelity chart, titled “Bitcoin’s Road to Maturity,” highlights how the asset has progressed since its inception. It shows that Bitcoin is currently in a corrective phase but marks $60,000 as a possible bottom.

Fidelity Bitcoin Maturity Chart
Fidelity Bitcoin Maturity Chart

From there, it expects the pioneering cryptocurrency to enter wave 6, targeting a new all-time high of $290,456. While Brandt did not dispute the possibility of this price, he finds its nearly immediate broadening outlook contentious.

The Fidelity chart suggests an expansion in the near term as BTC nears its bottom, while Bandt predicts a further downward trend. The conflicting views led to Brandt’s “playing around” comment.

$42,000 BTC Target?

Interestingly, Brandt earlier predicted where BTC could bottom in the Banana chart. On February 5, he stated that if it drops into the banana peel as deeply as in previous events, it should not fall very far from $42,000.

From there, he sees a “hop, skip, and jump,” insinuating a massive rebound, possibly to unprecedented prices. Notably, there is no guarantee that BTC will drop that low, as some industry leaders have argued it will not experience a steep decline as in past cycles, given its curtailed uptrend during the bull season.

Ripple Taps UK Investment Giant to Bring Regulated Tokenized Funds to XRP

Lele Jima
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Ripple Taps UK Investment Giant to Bring Regulated Tokenized Funds to XRP

Ripple has partnered with Aviva Investors, the asset management arm of UK insurance giant Aviva plc, to launch tokenized versions of traditional investment funds. 

The collaboration aims to bring regulated financial assets onto the XRP Ledger (XRPL), enabling faster, cheaper, and more efficient fund management and settlement through blockchain technology. 

Key Points 

  • Ripple’s partnership with Aviva Investors aims to bring a regulated fund structure onto the XRP Ledger. 
  • Ripple will provide Aviva with the infrastructure needed to issue and manage these tokenized funds on XRPL. 
  • The deal strengthens Ripple’s strategy to position the XRPL as core infrastructure for regulated institutional assets. 
  • More details about the partnership will be shared during the XRP Community Day virtual event later today. 

Details of the Partnership 

According to a press release, the alliance marks Ripple’s first strategic partnership with a European investment manager to tokenize traditional funds at scale and Aviva Investors’ first step into tokenized fund structures. 

Under the agreement, Ripple will provide Aviva with the technical infrastructure and support needed to issue and manage regulated tokenized funds on the XRPL.

Since its launch in 2012, the XRPL has built a reputation for speed, low costs, and operational efficiency, while offering compliance-focused features for regulated markets. So far, it has processed over 4 billion transactions, hosts more than 7 million blockchain wallets, and boasts around 120 independent validators. 

Significance of the Deal 

The new partnership marks a significant step toward mainstream adoption of blockchain technology, such as the XRPL, in traditional finance. By tokenizing traditional funds on the XRPL, Aviva Investors seeks to cut operational costs, accelerate transactions, improve transparency, and broaden investor access.

In addition, the deal strengthens Ripple’s push to position the XRPL as core infrastructure for institutional-grade, regulated financial assets. Notably, the alliance comes just a week after Ripple highlighted the ledger’s expanding role beyond payments, emphasizing its growing relevance in RWA tokenization and regulated markets.

Moreover, the move signals a shift from experimental blockchain pilots to large-scale, real-world deployment, as global institutions increasingly embrace tokenization as a transformative force in capital markets. 

Ripple Executives React

In a statement, Ripple’s Vice President for Trading and Markets, Nigel Khakoo, stressed that tokenization has entered large-scale production, with institutions now focused on deploying regulated digital assets.

Meanwhile, Reece Merrick, Ripple’s Managing Director for the Middle East and Africa, welcomed the partnership, noting that it will bring traditional fund structures onto the XRPL. He also confirmed that both firms will collaborate throughout the year to bridge institutional finance with blockchain utility.

In response, Aviva’s Chief Distribution Officer, Jill Barber, expressed enthusiasm about the alliance. She highlighted tokenization’s ability to improve time and cost efficiency while reaffirming the firm’s commitment to innovation and long-term client value.

In the meantime, Ripple plans to provide more insights about the partnership during the XRP Community Day event, slated for later today. 

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