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Shiba Inu Pullback Brings Price Back to a Historically Watched Fibonacci Zone

Elendu Benedict
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Shiba Inu Pullback Brings Price Back to a Historically Watched Fibonacci Zone

The recent Shiba Inu price retracement has pushed the meme coin to a key Fibonacci level recognized as a good entry point.

Notably, Shiba Inu has relinquished most of its early January gains, with the broader market uncertainty breeding the correctional momentum. A poor start to this week further piles pressure on the token’s price, but has now brought it to a key price level, seen as a good long-term buy opportunity.

Key Points

  • Shiba Inu has relinquished most of its early January gains, with the broader market uncertainty breeding the correctional momentum.
  • The recent Shiba Inu price retracement has pushed the meme coin to a key Fibonacci level recognized as a good entry point.
  • Amid the downtrend, Shiba Inu reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level on the 4-hour timeframe.
  • SHIB had dropped to a low of $0.00000745 in Asian time on Monday, joining a broader market trend spurred by macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • This is likely a short-term correction, which may represent a “sweet spot” for long-term Shiba Inu buys ahead in a recovery.

Sweet Spot for a Shiba Inu Buy?

Notably, a TradingView analysis from “Vivaforexwithcaro” highlighted this price action in an early Monday post. Specifically, Shiba Inu has just reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level on the 4-hour timeframe, as last week’s poor performance spills into the current week.

SHIB had dropped to a low of $0.00000745 in Asian time on Monday, joining a broader market trend spurred by macroeconomic uncertainty. The chart shows it reached a key support level marked in pink in an accompanying chart. This demand zone closely aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Shiba Inu Retest the 0.786 Fibonacci Level/Vivaforexwithcaro
Shiba Inu Retest the 0.786 Fibonacci Level/Vivaforexwithcaro

Nonetheless, the analyst views this as a short-term correction. As a result, he called the current level a “sweet spot” for long-term Shiba Inu buys in preparation for a recovery.

Shiba Inu Structure Looks Weak

Overall, Shiba Inu has struggled to sustain any upward momentum. In early January, it started the year as most cryptocurrencies did, rallying over 25% from around $0.00000691 to $0.00001009 on January 5, removing one zero.

That has been the peak price so far this year, as the token has corrected by 22% to the current price of $0.00000785. Further, the analyst’s chart shows Shiba Inu broke below an ascending support trendline around $0.0000083, further confirming weak price momentum.

While Shiba Inu showed a notable lower price rejection at its 4-hour close, it generally looks weak. How it would react to the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the broader crypto trend would influence its near-term price development.

Further Analytical Perspective

Meanwhile, other analysts have also shared mixed outlooks for Shiba Inu. For context, SHIB KNIGHT is similarly optimistic with today’s analysis, insisting it was time to “send” Shiba Inu. His bullish disposition stems from a recent breakout of a descending trendline.

However, MMB Trader remains conservative. While he is bullish on the asset’s long-term trajectory, he highlighted that Shiba Inu is “dead” as long as it trades below the key resistance level at $0.00001165 and $0.000014.

Bitcoin Dips to $92,000 as $785M in Long Bets Collapse

Mark Brennan
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Bitcoin Dips to $92,000 as $785M in Long Bets Collapse

Bitcoin opened the week under pressure, retreating as a wave of liquidations abruptly halted a rally driven largely by derivatives activity.

The pullback was compounded by fresh macro headwinds following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on eight European countries.

Under the proposal, a 10% tariff would take effect on February 1, 2026, increasing to 25% by June 1. The White House stated that the measures would remain in place until the United States secures an agreement to purchase Greenland.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin fell about 3% to roughly $92,500 today.
  • Crypto liquidations totaled $867 million over the past 24 hours, including $785 million in long positions.
  • Around 243,000 traders were liquidated globally during the same period.
  • The largest single liquidation reached $25.83 million on the Hyperliquid BTC-USDT pair.
  • Solana dropped 6.5%, SUI slid 12%, and ZCash declined 7% during Asian hours.
  • Gold gained 1.7% to $4,600 after the U.S. announced a 10% tariff on imports from Denmark and seven other European countries.

Bitcoin Retreats as Leverage-Driven Rally Unwinds

Data from CoinGlass showed that losses were heavily concentrated in long positions, which highlighted how crowded bullish trades had become ahead of the reversal. Consequently, as prices slipped, liquidation-driven selling intensified, accelerating the downside move.

Crypto Liquidation Last 24 Hours
Crypto Liquidation Last 24 Hours

Selling pressure was not confined to Bitcoin. Solana fell 6.5%, while SUI posted a sharper 12% decline. ZCash also weakened, sliding 7%.

The synchronized declines reflected a market increasingly sensitive to Bitcoin’s direction, with altcoins amplifying the move as overall sentiment deteriorated.

Thin Liquidity Exposes Structural Fragility

In its weekly report, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s recent climb toward $96,000 relied heavily on derivatives flows, whereas sustained spot accumulation remained limited. Moreover, the firm warned that futures liquidity remains thin, leaving the market vulnerable to abrupt reversals.

Once leverage-driven demand fades, prices can quickly lose direction, Glassnode said. Adding to this pressure is a supply zone formed by long-term holders who accumulated near prior cycle highs. That area has repeatedly capped recent rebound attempts.

Market Direction Still Under Question

Against this backdrop, CryptoQuant struck a cautious tone. It characterizes the advance since late November as corrective rather than the start of a confirmed trend reversal. 

Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average near $101,000, a level that has historically separated bullish and bearish market regimes. As long as prices remain under that threshold, uncertainty is likely to persist.

Spot demand continues to contract despite modest improvement, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain subdued, according to the firm.

Early Stabilization Signals, Limited Follow-Through

Nevertheless, some tentative signs of stabilization have emerged. Glassnode reported that long-term holder distribution has slowed compared with late 2025, suggesting reduced selling pressure from older cohorts.

Spot flows on Binance-linked venues indicate stronger buying interest, while sell-side activity on Coinbase has eased. However, these developments have yet to translate into sustained upward momentum.

Options markets echo the cautious mood. Glassnode noted that implied volatility remains low. However, longer-dated contracts continue to price in downside protection, thereby signaling lingering risk aversion.

Sensitivity to Leverage Remains the Key Risk

Taken together, analysts see a market still dominated by leverage dynamics. Both Glassnode and CryptoQuant warned that shifts in liquidity remain the key driver of price action. Without a meaningful return of spot demand, volatility risks are likely to stay elevated.

Until that demand materializes, Bitcoin is expected to remain reactive, with price movements driven more by positioning than fundamentals.

SEC Can No Longer Reopen Ripple and XRP Lawsuit

Lele Jima
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SEC Can No Longer Reopen Ripple and XRP Lawsuit

An Australian-based lawyer has argued that the SEC v. Ripple case is legally closed and cannot be reopened, citing the legal doctrine of res judicata.

Attorney Bill Morgan explained that this principle prevents parties from relitigating claims that a court has already decided. He stressed that Judge Analisa Torres has already issued final rulings on the core issues in the case, including the legal status of XRP and Ripple’s various sales of the token between 2013 and 2020.

Since the court resolved these matters on the merits, he contends that the SEC is permanently barred from revisiting them.

Key Points

  • House Democrats have criticized the SEC for dismissing more than 10 crypto enforcement actions, including the Ripple case.
  • The res judicata doctrine prevents the SEC from relitigating the Ripple case because a court has already ruled on the matter.
  • The SEC’s litigation strategy backfired, forcing a broader ruling than it likely intended.
  • Future cases would be heavily constrained, even if the SEC targeted post-2020 XRP sales.

Why the SEC Can No Longer Relitigate Ripple’s Case

Morgan’s comments followed reports that House Democrats criticized SEC Chair Paul Atkins for dropping more than a dozen crypto-related enforcement actions, including cases against Ripple and Binance. The lawmakers urged the SEC to continue action in the lawsuit involving Justin Sun.

In response, Morgan argued that the SEC cannot simply revive closed cases, as res judicata applies once a court reaches a final judgment.

He further noted that the SEC weakened its own position by broadly arguing that XRP itself and multiple categories of Ripple’s XRP sales constituted securities. That strategy allowed Judge Analisa Torres to rule that XRP, in and of itself, is not a security and to evaluate different types of XRP distributions separately. As a result, the SEC lost key claims related to programmatic and secondary market sales.

Since those issues have already been adjudicated, Morgan maintains that the res judicata doctrine now prevents the SEC from relitigating any claims arising from Ripple’s XRP sales during the 2013–2020 period.

“SEC Can Still Probe Ripple”

In the meantime, the legal expert stressed that the SEC could still pursue litigation related to Ripple’s XRP sales that occurred after 2020 or any future distributions.

Even then, he said the SEC would not be starting from scratch, because Judge Torres’ 2023 ruling would still limit what the agency could argue.

While most community members agree that the SEC cannot relitigate the Ripple lawsuit under the res judicata doctrine, some users have offered a different view. One user, Zedzies, argued that the SEC could revisit the case if a change in the law invalidated the doctrine.

However, such a scenario would require direct congressional intervention. A lawmaker would need to introduce new legislation, which would then pass through committee review, floor debate, voting in both chambers, and ultimately receive presidential approval.

Given the complexity and political hurdles involved, this outcome appears unlikely without broad support from both the legislative and executive branches.

Trader Makes $233,000 on XRP by Exploiting Thin Binance Liquidity

Sam Wisdom Raphael
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Trader Makes $233,000 on XRP by Exploiting Thin Binance Liquidity

A Polymarket trader made $233,000 in a day after he spotted a gap in weekend liquidity and turned it into a large advantage in the XRP and BTC markets. 

Market data indicates that the individual took advantage of thin trading activity across both Polymarket and Binance. Specifically, he focused on a 15-minute window involving XRP’s direction on Jan. 17, buying every available “up” contract while the market stayed quiet and liquidity remained low.

The trader backed his bet by triggering roughly $1 million in spot buying on Binance minutes before settlement, pushing XRP about 0.5% higher. His total execution costs sat near $6,200, allowing him to repeat the same method several times during the night. 

Key Points

  • A trader earned roughly $233,000 overnight by targeting thin liquidity on Polymarket prediction markets and Binance.
  • He focused on the January 17 XRP “up” versus “down” market running from 12:45 PM to 1:00 PM Eastern Time.
  • The individual bought around 77,000 “up” contracts at an average price near $0.48.
  • Minutes before settlement, a $1 million Binance spot buy pushed XRP roughly 0.5% higher, giving him the win.
  • Estimated trading costs totaled about $6,200, including fees and slippage.

Trader Identifies Thin Liquidity on the XRP 15m Market

Predict Trader, a well-known presence on Polymarket, shared the story in a recent X commentary. The trader at the center of everything goes by “a4385” on Polymarket. Notably, he discovered that short, 15-minute prediction markets gave him room to push prices if he acted at the right moment. 

With this, the individual focused on a single question tied to XRP’s direction on Jan. 17 between 12:45 PM and 1:00 PM Eastern Time. He started buying contracts that paid out if XRP rose, and he kept buying them at every level that other traders offered.

For context, Saturday nights normally bring quiet trading, with Polymarket making it easy for small developers to deploy bots. As a result, many counterparties turned out to be automated. 

Price Spike Lures Bots in

By the tenth minute of the window, XRP slipped by roughly 0.3% from its open. Despite this, his buying spree pushed the payout price for the “up” option to about $0.7, above a fair midpoint. The bots read this spike the wrong way and saw free money, so they sold more contracts to him instead of stepping back from the market.

This activity left him holding around 77,000 “up” shares at an average cost of about $0.48. He then waited for the final moments and made his second move. 

Notably, 2 minutes before the market closed, a separate wallet on Binance executed a spot buy worth roughly $1 million in USDT. This order pushed XRP higher by about 0.5% and locked in the outcome he needed. Seconds after the prediction market settled, the same wallet unloaded the XRP and reversed the earlier buy.

a4385 on Polymarket Predict Trader
a4385 on Polymarket | Predict Trader

The trade cost far less than the profit it delivered. Specifically, Predict Trader estimated that fees and price slippage on both sides amounted to roughly 0.25% in each direction. With a Binance VIP 4 fee level near 0.06%, the full cost came to roughly $6,200, and the real total may actually be slightly below this estimate.

Losses on the Opposite End

Predict Trader noted that once he proved the strategy worked, the trader repeated it across multiple 15-minute markets through the night. Data shows he made similar trades on the Bitcoin (BTC) market. Weekend volume never recovered, which meant trading bots kept showing up on the other side of his orders. 

Notably, some automated accounts recognized the threat and shut down fast enough to avoid more damage. However, others reacted too slowly and drained their balances. One of the hardest was the trader “Aleksandmoney,” who lost about $34,000, representing his total gains for the year.

XRP Posts One-Time Historical Bullish Signal Against Ethereum

Mark Brennan
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XRP Posts One-Time Historical Bullish Signal Against Ethereum

XRP has returned to a rare long-term position against Ethereum after breaking above the two-week Ichimoku Cloud.

For context, the Ichimoku Cloud structure has historically limited XRP’s strength relative to ETH, capping XRP’s momentum during bullish uptrends. However, XRP/ETH now sits at a level where the cloud has moved from resistance to a potential support zone, a situation that has occurred only once before in 2021. 

Key Points

  • XRP currently trades for 0.00061 ETH after a recent two-week decline of just over 6%, while remaining above the Ichimoku Cloud.
  • The XRP/ETH pair spent most of 2018 to 2024 below the cloud, with repeated failures to push above it.
  • The only previous cloud breakout occurred in early 2021 and failed within a few two-week candles.
  • XRP/ETH reached a cycle bottom of 0.0001251 in June 2024 before XRP staged another breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud in November 2024.
  • Now, despite a pullback, the XRP/ETH pair is holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, looking to transform it to support.

XRP/ETH Price Development

Matt Hughes, a prominent analyst who calls himself “The Great Mattsby,” called attention to this development in his latest commentary. His analysis focused on the XRP/ETH pair on the two-week timeframe.

The XRP/ETH chart shows XRP trading around 0.00062 ETH at the time of his disclosure, with the latest two-week candle reflecting a decline of just over 6%. Hughes drew attention to the broader trend structure, noting that XRP is attempting to hold above the two-week Ichimoku Cloud, something it has not sustained since 2021.

Historical Structure

Historically, the Ichimoku Cloud has acted as a dominant ceiling for XRP when measured against ETH. From 2016 to early 2018, the pair experienced extreme volatility, including sharp rallies that pushed XRP/ETH above 0.0036 ETH by December 2018 before reversing lower. 

However, once the cloud fully formed on the higher timeframe, XRP struggled to reclaim that ground. Between 2018 and 2020, nearly every recovery attempt stalled as the price approached the cloud, with repeated rejections occurring between 0.001 and 0.0036 ETH. During this period, the cloud remained thick and above price.

XRP/ETH Cloud Breakout First Came in 2021

Hughes highlighted 2021 as the only exception. In the first quarter of that year, XRP/ETH broke above the two-week cloud. Nonetheless, the breakout lasted only a handful of two-week candles. The cloud failed to transition into long-term support, and XRP soon fell back below it. By late 2021 and into 2022, the pair resumed its broader downtrend.

From 2022 through mid-2024, XRP/ETH spent an extended period trading beneath a downward-sloping Ichimoku Cloud. During this phase, the cloud repeatedly capped upside attempts at the 0.0004 ETH region. The Kijun-sen remained above the price for long stretches, indicating a persistent bearish structure. This weakness culminated in XRP/ETH bottoming at 0.0001251 in June 2024.

XRP Holds Above the Ichimoku Cloud After Latest Breakout

The bullish development Hughes is now watching began in late 2024. Specifically, XRP/ETH broke above the two-week cloud when it soared from 0.00017 to cross 0.0008 by December 2024, representing a structural change not seen in years. 

XRPETH Ichimoku Cloud Position Matt Hughes
XRPETH Ichimoku Cloud Position | Matt Hughes

As 2025 progressed, the cloud ahead thinned noticeably, suggesting reduced resistance. XRP/ETH then advanced to a 5-year peak of 0.00139 by April 2025. However, it’s been downhill since then, with the pair now down 56% from the April 2025 high. 

Despite this, the XRP/ETH pair still holds above the Ichimoku Cloud, now retesting the top as support. This places the cloud beneath price rather than overhead, aligning with Hughes’ observation that XRP is attempting to flip the two-week cloud into support. The Tenkan-sen has moved above the Kijun-sen, indicating improving medium-term momentum.

XRP Flash Crash Triggers Largest Long Liquidation Worth $29,000,000 Since November 2025

Sam Wisdom Raphael
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XRP Flash Crash Triggers Largest Long Liquidation Worth $29,000,000 Since November 2025

XRP has witnessed its largest long liquidation figure in over two months amid the latest market-wide crash that pushed prices below a crucial psychological support.

On Jan. 19, XRP recorded $29.7 million worth of long liquidations, the largest since Nov. 4, 2025. The recent wave of liquidations cut across the entire crypto market and comes as Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the market grappled with increased bearish pressure that has made the total crypto market cap lose $150 billion in five days.

During the ongoing downtrend, XRP has emerged as one of the most impacted, dropping by more than 4% in the last 24 hours to relinquish the psychologically important $2 support. XRP also saw an initial flash crash to $1.84, which led to the increased long liquidation figures, representing the largest so far this year.

Key Points

  • The broader market has entered a renewed downtrend, losing $150 billion since Jan. 15 as prices collapse.
  • XRP is facing one of the worst impacts of the global market downward trend, having dropped by 4.3% in the last 24 hours.
  • While XRP currently trades for $1.96, the price initially crashed to $1.84 earlier today.
  • With this crash, most long positions faced liquidation, amounting to $29.7 million today.
  • This represents the largest single-day long liquidation XRP has recorded since Nov. 4, 2025.

XRP Crashed to $1.84 Amid Market Struggles

After recovering to a new yearly peak of $3.29 trillion on Jan. 14, the global crypto market faced resistance and has since continued to struggle. At press time, the global market cap has dropped 5.77% from this high, having lost $190 billion since the peak and $150 billion over the last five days.

Amid this renewed downtrend, some assets have reacted worse than others. Specifically, XRP witnessed a flash crash within 5 minutes, retested its Jan. 1 lows around $1.84 before recovering above $1.9. While the altcoin now trades at $1.96, the initial crash already had a visible impact on the futures market.

2-Month Peak in Long Liquidations

Notably, data from Coinglass confirms that XRP has witnessed $29.7 million worth of long liquidations today, with hours left before market close. This represents the largest liquidation figure for long positions since Nov. 4, 2025, when the market recorded $36.25 million worth of long liquidations.

XRP Long Liquidations
XRP Long Liquidations | Coinglass

Meanwhile, despite long positions seeing $29.7 million wiped out, short liquidations only come in at $1.16 million, bringing total liquidations for the day to $30.86 million, with long positions accounting for 96%. 

24H XRP Liquidation Figures Gloomier

Interestingly, liquidations over the last 24 hours actually look much gloomier. For context, the XRP futures market has seen $40.73 million worth of positions wiped out within this period. Of this figure, long liquidations account for $39.49 million, also representing 96%.

XRP 24H Liquidations Coinglass
XRP 24H Liquidations | Coinglass

Meanwhile, the 12-hour figures look similar to what the market has recorded over the past 24 hours. Specifically, in the last 12 hours, XRP has witnessed $40.36 million in total liquidations, with $39.14 million attributable to longs. This indicates that most of the 24-hour liquidations have emerged in the last 12 hours.

Despite the current bearish condition, more accounts on Binance are betting on an XRP price increase from the current price. Specifically, the long/short ratio on Binance accounts sits at 3.06, leaning toward a bullish disposition. Nonetheless, the overall long/short ratio in the XRP market has collapsed to 0.8896, suggesting that short positions now outpace longs.

1 XRP Worth If Major Retailers Like Walmart and eBay Adopt XRP

Lele Jima
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1 XRP Worth If Major Retailers Like Walmart and eBay Adopt XRP

With XRP’s micropayment use case strengthening amid recent adoption announcements, a leading entity has projected the potential value of a single XRP should major retailers adopt the token. 

Many analysts view real-world adoption of crypto assets as one of the strongest catalysts for long-term value creation. Consequently, supporters of major cryptocurrencies such as XRP are increasingly examining how its price could react if global retail giants, including Walmart and eBay, integrate the token into their payment systems.

These discussions recently gained momentum following reports that Walmart has begun accepting XRP, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, through its OnePay app. Although the process requires users to convert their cryptocurrencies into cash before completing transactions, many proponents still interpret the development as bullish, arguing that it could gradually reshape XRP’s market dynamics. 

Key Points

  • Rising Adoption of XRP by Major Retailers: Recent announcements, such as Walmart accepting XRP via its OnePay app, suggest increasing real-world use, which could positively influence XRP’s market dynamics.
  • Impact of Large-Scale Retail Use on XRP’s Price: ChatGPT analyzed that significant retail adoption involving high transaction volumes at companies like Walmart and eBay could lead to higher network activity, increased liquidity demand, and market sentiment improvements.
  • Mechanism for Price Appreciation with Retail Adoption: As XRP is used more in transactions, demand increases, prompting institutions to hold more XRP, reducing circulating supply and potentially raising prices due to scarcity.
  • Price Scenarios Based on Adoption Levels: ChatGPT estimates XRP could reach $10-$25 during initial testing phases, $25-$80 with broader acceptance, and over $80, possibly exceeding $200, if integrated into global payments systems.
  • Potential for XRP to Become a Global Payment Standard: Widespread adoption across payment systems and financial institutions could elevate XRP’s valuation significantly, with prices potentially reaching $100 to $200 as it becomes embedded in global payment infrastructure.

ChatGPT Projects XRP Price Reaction to Large-Scale Retail Adoption 

As a result, we consulted the AI chatbot ChatGPT to assess the potential impact of large-scale retail adoption of XRP for payments. In its analysis, ChatGPT outlined several key assumptions underpinning this adoption-driven scenario. 

Key Assumptions Underpinning Scenario 

The leading AI chatbot stressed that any meaningful price impact would depend on several foundational assumptions. It requires that XRP be used in real transactions at scale, with retail giants like Walmart and eBay processing hundreds of billions of dollars in annual transactions. 

This massive transaction volume would imply that even partial integration could significantly increase network activity. It assumes that this broader usage would likely drive on-chain transaction volumes higher, expand wallet adoption, and increase liquidity demand. 

The real-world traction could also influence market sentiment, attracting both institutional and retail investors. 

Potential Impact on Price 

Meanwhile, ChatGPT suggested that the pathway from retail adoption of XRP as a payment method to price appreciation follows a clear economic logic. As retailers begin using XRP, transaction demand rises. In turn, increased demand requires deeper liquidity, potentially prompting payment processors, market makers, and institutions to hold more XRP on their balance sheets.

As more tokens are held for operational purposes rather than traded speculatively, the freely circulating supply on exchanges could shrink, potentially introducing scarcity pressure and supporting higher prices.  

Hypothetical Price Scenario Under Different Adoption Levels 

Furthermore, the chatbot estimated XRP’s potential price under different adoption scenarios if Walmart and eBay integrate the token for payments. 

Initial Adoption Phase 

Under this scenario, ChatGPT assumes that these major retailers initially start testing XRP for limited domestic payments or internal settlement flows. If this happens, it estimates that XRP could soar to a hypothetical range of $10 to $25. This phase would be primarily driven by sentiment, early institutional positioning, and expectations of broader rollout.

Widespread Acceptance Across Large Retail Networks 

As adoption expands across large retail networks, XRP could see more consistent transaction volume and greater consumer engagement. In such a scenario, ChatGPT estimates the price could hypothetically move into the $25 to $80 range or higher. 

At this stage, XRP’s demand would increasingly stem from routine business and consumer behavior rather than short-term trading activity.

Global Payments Integration

In a more advanced scenario, ChatGPT suggests XRP could become embedded across global payment systems, supporting retail payments, business-to-business settlements, and liquidity provisioning for financial institutions. 

If achieved, this level of integration could push XRP into a significantly higher valuation bracket, with hypothetical prices exceeding $80 and potentially reaching $100 to $200 over time. 

XRP Price Prediction if Walmart and eBay Starts using it
XRP Price Prediction if Walmart and eBay Starts using it

What’s the Right Amount of XRP to Hold? XRPL Engineer Explains

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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What’s the Right Amount of XRP to Hold? XRPL Engineer Explains

A renewed debate in the XRP community is asking a familiar question: how much XRP is enough? 

XRP Ledger developer Bird argued that the answer depends far more on personal circumstances than on any fixed number.

Key Highlights

  • Bird says the right amount of XRP depends on personal life, not fixed numbers.
  • Costs of living, goals, and responsibilities make universal XRP targets misleading.
  • Bird cites 10,000 XRP only as a rough reference, not a rule for financial freedom.
  • The key takeaway is that strategy and context matter more than chasing viral XRP figures.

“The Right Amount” Depends on Your Life, Not Social Media

In a post on X, Bird asked the question: “What’s the right amount of XRP to hold?” 

According to him, XRP holdings cannot be measured with a universal benchmark because people live very different lives. Costs of living vary by country, personal responsibilities differ, and financial goals are not the same. Some investors prioritize freedom and flexibility, while others focus on long-term security for health, family, retirement, or travel.

Rather than chasing figures promoted online, Bird suggests investors step back and define what success actually means for them. Mapping out personal factors such as family needs, lifestyle goals, health, and ambitions helps clarify how much capital would truly feel meaningful.

Why 10,000 XRP Often Comes Up in Conversations

While emphasizing that there is no fixed rule, Bird acknowledged that he often mentions 10,000 XRP as a rough reference point. His reasoning is that if XRP eventually trades in the double-digit range, that level already represents a six-figure valuation in U.S. dollars.

However, he stressed that even this figure can be life-changing for some and insignificant for others. The same portfolio can mean financial freedom in one country and only partial comfort in another. That contrast is exactly why copying numbers from social media posts can be misleading.

The message is to accumulate what feels reasonable based on personal reality, not based on viral claims or influencer targets.

Community Pushback on Fixed XRP Targets

Bird’s view aligns with popular conversations unfolding in the XRP community. Earlier this year, an early XRP network figure challenged the belief that holding 20,000 XRP guarantees financial freedom. 

He stressed that even in aggressive bullish scenarios, those headline numbers can shrink quickly when taxes, living costs, inflation, and long-term expenses are factored in.

From that perspective, financial freedom is less about hitting a price milestone and more about sustainability over decades. Some community voices argue that true independence may require portfolios in the multi-million-dollar range, depending on age, lifestyle, and location.

Accumulation vs. Strategy: Two Competing Mindsets

This debate has produced two schools of thought. One side promotes heavy accumulation, with figures like 50,000 XRP often cited as a target for meaningful upside. 

Others argue that discipline, financial literacy, and realistic planning matter more than sheer token count.

Under more conservative price assumptions, such as XRP reaching $10, even 50,000 tokens would translate to $500,000. While substantial, it is not automatically life-changing for everyone. That reality reinforces Bird’s argument that context matters more than raw numbers.

The key takeaway from Bird’s comments is that there is no single “correct” amount of XRP to hold. Portfolio size, price expectations, and personal goals all interact in different ways for different people.

As XRP draws bold predictions and long-term speculation, Bird’s view is a reminder that financial goals are personal. Ultimately, the right amount of XRP isn’t set by social media timelines, but by what fits an individual’s plans and risk tolerance. 

XRP Now Approaching One of Two Trendlines That Previously Led to Breakouts Against Bitcoin

Mark Brennan
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Market data indicates that XRP may now be approaching the first of two trendlines that previously led to breakouts against Bitcoin.

Notably, these trendlines exist on the XRP/BTC 3-month chart and have historically presented resistance to an XRP rally against Bitcoin, capping XRP’s long-term performance even during periods of intense bullish momentum.

Data from the chart confirms that once this bullish momentum pushes past the first trendline, XRP records an initial explosive run against Bitcoin. Further, if XRP maintains the uptrend to breach the second trendline, a more substantial rally emerges. While XRP has recently underperformed against BTC, it may now be approaching the first trendline.

Key Data Points

  • XRP has continued to underperform compared to Bitcoin since the XRPBTC pair dropped from the 0.00003068 peak in July 2025.
  • This peak coincided with an XRP price run to $3.66, and while BTC has also dropped since July 2025, XRP has seen steeper declines.
  • From the July 2025 high, XRP collapsed 31% against Bitcoin by the end of 2025.
  • A recovery push at the start of 2026 has helped XRP gain by a modest 3.33% this year.
  • Despite the mild gain, XRP is now approaching one of two trendlines that often lead to surges against Bitcoin.

XRP Underperforms Amid Steeper Drops

These trendlines were recently highlighted by Bird, a pundit in the XRP community, at a time when XRP is attempting to recover some lost ground against Bitcoin. Notably, during the November 2024 to January 2025 market rally, XRP soared from 0.00000725 BTC to a 4-year high of 0.00003415 BTC. 

During this period, Bitcoin also saw impressive gains, but XRP’s upsurge was much higher. However, XRP lost ground when the euphoria faded, dropping to 0.00002092 by June 2025. A rebound in July helped it reclaim a peak of 0.00003068, but this recovery effort was short-lived, and XRP has underperformed since then.

XRP Eyeing Trendline Breakout Against Bitcoin

However, XRP appears to be attempting another rebound campaign. Specifically, after an 11.9% drop against BTC in December 2025, XRP leveraged the broader market recovery in early January 2026 to rise 3.33%, with the XRPBTC pair now sitting at 0.00002170.

Bird’s 3-month chart confirms that amid this recovery, XRP is now looking to break above a resistance trendline that has capped its long-term bullish momentum. While XRP broke above this trendline multiple times in 2025, a retracement always pushed it below the mark. Now, the altcoin is eyeing another push.

Currently, the trendline sits at 0.00002537 BTC, requiring a 17% gain for XRP against Bitcoin to breach it. According to Bird, every time XRP decisively breaches this line, it has rallied. Meanwhile, from here, XRP could face a second resistance trendline at 0.00004287, which often leads to “full price discovery” when breached.

XRPBTC 3M Chart Bird
XRPBTC 3M Chart | Bird

Historical Context

Data from Bird’s chart provides historical context surrounding XRP’s interactions with these trendlines. In 2020/2021, when XRP broke above the first trendline in November 2020, it soared from 0.00001741 BTC to a high of 0.00004399 BTC within the month. Also, another rally from 0.00000725 BTC to 0.00003415 BTC emerged after it breached this trendline in November 2024.

Meanwhile, XRP broke above the second trendline in mid-2024 and rallied from 0.00001 BTC to 0.00009270 BTC by January 2015. Another breach of the second trendline played out in Q2 2017, and the XRPBTC pair spiked from 0.000004 to an all-time high of 0.0002454 by May 2017.

Important Caveat

While Bird believes XRP now sits at the same doorstep against Bitcoin as it did during these times before an explosive run, investors should note that past results do not guarantee future success. 

For instance, XRP repeatedly breached the first trendline in 2025, but failed to capitalize on the move. There is no guarantee that this time will be different. As a result, investors should not consider this investment advice.

XRP Holds Long-Term EMA Structure as Historically Bullish Price Behavior Reappears

Mark Brennan
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XRP Holds Long-Term EMA Structure as Historically Bullish Price Behavior Reappears

The XRP monthly chart shows the altcoin repeating a historically bullish price behavior as it holds above the 21 EMA.

Data from the chart confirms that this historically bullish behavior, which has emerged multiple times over the past decade, often sees XRP move through three phases in each cycle involving an initial consolidation, a price expansion, and then a correction. 

Interestingly, one of the necessary requirements for XRP to sustain this pattern is holding above the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA). Amid the current price action, XRP has held above this indicator, suggesting that the pattern may again be playing out.

Key Data Points

  • XRP has historically followed a bullish price pattern that involves an initial consolidation, an expansion, and then a subsequent correction.
  • For this pattern to play out, XRP must hold above the 21 EMA during the subsequent correction.
  • This pattern emerged from 2014 to 2017, pushing XRP to a high of $3.31, and then from 2018 to 2021, reaching a high of $1.96.
  • While XRP has struggled since the $3.6 peak during the current cycle, it has held above the 21 EMA, suggesting that the historical pattern may again play out.

XRP’s Historical Price Behavior Around this Pattern

EGRAG Crypto, a well-known chartist, called attention to this pattern in a recent market commentary. Data from his chart shows that between 2014 and early 2017, XRP spent several years moving sideways, with the price trading within the $0.004 and $0.29 range. 

During this period, the 21-month EMA remained flat, confirming that the market moved with weak momentum amid an extended consolidation. However, this consolidation phase ended in Q2 2017, when XRP broke above the 21 EMA and began a strong upward trend, leading to the expansion.

XRP 1M Chart EGRAG Crypto
XRP 1M Chart | EGRAG Crypto

Amid the expansion, the price climbed to a peak around $3.31 in January 2018, representing a 981% rise. However, a sharp correction followed, but the chart shows that XRP eventually stabilized above earlier macro lows, preserving its broader market structure.

From 2018 through 2020, XRP moved through the corrective phase. During this time, price repeatedly pulled back toward the rising 21 EMA. EGRAG highlighted these moments using white and green circles on the chart. 

After respecting the 21 EMA during the correction, XRP launched another impulsive move that carried the price into April 2021, where it topped at around $1.96. Data from the chart shows that this measured push led to a 157% increase. Another pullback followed after this peak.

XRP Now Following a Similar Pattern

EGRAG explained that, historically, each pullback followed the same pattern: momentum cooled, structure held, buyers stepped in early, and price formed higher lows. He believes this behavior is structural consolidation, not market weakness. Interestingly, XRP appears to be following this pattern now amid the ongoing consolidation.

The analyst believes XRP’s price action is following a 5-wave structure. According to him, Wave (1) began in late 2023, with the price lifting from the $0.50 to $0.60 area. Wave (2) followed in early 2024 as a corrective pullback that maintained macro support. 

Meanwhile, Wave (3) then played out from late 2024, after the November 2024 upsurge, pushing XRP above $3.4 by January 2025. Currently, XRP trades within Wave (4), which involves a correction and subsequent consolidation.

Currently, XRP trades near $2.06, consolidating above the rising 21-month EMA. EGRAG pointed out that this phase resembles previous Wave 4 periods, in which price retraced modestly without breaking the broader trend. If XRP continues to follow this pattern, it could repeat a rally similar to the 2017 and 2021 spikes.

According to EGRAG, if it replicated the 2017 rise, prices could reach $33. Meanwhile, a repeat of the 2021 upsurge would push the price to $8. Considering these, the analyst came up with an average XRP target of $20.

Invalidation Criteria

However, EGRAG highlighted what could invalidate the pattern. According to him, the structural thesis would fail if XRP lost its macro support and broke decisively below its long-term structure. The chart shows that this has not happened, but there is no guarantee. As of the latest monthly candle, XRP continues to hold above rising structural support.

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