Amid the recent XRP recovery push, market participants have continued to question if this is finally the start of a trend reversal or a brief relief rally.

Notably, XRP opened 2026 with bullish momentum after a rough end to last year. Following the 35% crash in Q4 2025, the crypto asset has bounced sharply in early January 2026. The recovery has already lifted XRP by nearly 30%, pushing it back above $2, with the broader market also rebounding considerably.

However, the upsurge has led to questions. For instance, some traders believe XRP may finally be turning bullish. Others think this push resembles a relief rally within a larger downtrend. Amid these questions, market analyst Blockchain Backer shared why he believes investors should be cautious.

Long-Term Charts Show Warning Signs Instead of Strength

The analyst first considered XRP’s weekly and monthly charts, which he says are important for understanding the trend. Notably, on the weekly timeframe, XRP formed a bearish divergence that pushed the MACD to new lows.

The price stayed stable overall, but this stability came with noticeable weakness compared to May, June, and July 2025. However, with the latest upward push, weekly data shows the MACD curling upward again, and the Stochastic RSI turning higher as well.

Meanwhile, on the monthly chart, the conditions look more troubling. Notably, the MACD recently crossed lower in a pattern similar to February 2022, a period that led to deeper losses. The monthly RSI also fell sharply, landing below last summer’s levels. In addition, the monthly Stochastic RSI continues to point down.

As both weekly and monthly indicators enter levels from past periods when XRP faced breakdowns, Blockchain Backer believes traders should stay cautious instead of celebrating too early.

The analyst noted that this current situation resembles a pattern he has tracked for years. For context, the pattern typically involves a rally that appears right before capitulation. 

He highlighted how the crypto market behaved the same way in May 2021, when the altcoin market hit a 4.236 Fibonacci extension, Bitcoin retraced to 0.702, and hype peaked during a high-profile weekend. This moment marked the top, not the start of a new run.

XRP Price Action Still Resembles a Market Near Capitulation

Speaking further, Blockchain Backer compared the current XRP structure to examples like Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) and Cardano (ADA), both of which climbed temporarily before breaking lower again.

While the behavior is similar, the question now is how high the current rally could go before the pullback emerges. He believes XRP might rally toward $2.27 to $2.30, though this remains uncertain. In addition, Bitcoin could stretch toward levels that mirror $2.50 on XRP’s chart if history repeats. 

The analyst noted that XRP invalidated a clean ABC corrective pattern when it fell below $1.82 on Dec. 18, and this led to more uncertainty about how high this rally can rise. Because of that break, he expects this may be the final rally that requires heavy caution before market conditions improve later in 2026.

A Possible Drop Ahead Before a Healthier Market Emerges

Essentially, he believes the charts point toward a capitulation event, though he cannot predict exact levels. He mentioned that XRP might fall near $1.60, or possibly lower, but stressed that nothing guarantees a drop to a specific price. 

Blockchain Backer also warned that relief rallies often draw investors back in at the wrong moment. Notably, green candles lead to optimism, and many assume the bull market has returned. If the rally fades, those same traders could face the burn as price reverses again.

However, his outlook could change only if XRP breaks convincingly above $3.20 to $3.30. Until then, he confirmed plans to watch for signs of exhaustion. If capitulation finally arrives, he believes the market will reset and create room for a stronger recovery later in 2026. 

Shortly after his analysis, XRP soared to $2.41 but has since pulled back slightly to the current price of $2.25, with the upward momentum slowing down. Interestingly, Dom, another analyst, also argued that the latest rally did not come from aggressive spot buying.

Ripple’s plan to become a fully regulated national bank has reached an advanced stage, leading to discussions about how it could impact the XRP price. 

Recently, market analyst Chart Nerd highlighted regulatory documents on Ripple’s national bank charter application. For context, the documents build on a process that began in July 2025 and is now close to completion.

Notably, the paperwork ties to Ripple’s original filing from mid-2025, which received conditional approval in December 2025. According to him, Ripple’s move toward operating as a federally regulated national trust bank now stands on firm ground. To him, the opposition no longer has the power to derail the process.

Details of Ripple’s Filing

Specifically, the documents show that Ripple chose a national bank charter rather than a state-level license. This decision puts the company under federal oversight and allows it to operate under a single set of rules across the United States, instead of dealing with different state regulations.

Moreover, the proposed bank appears in the application as Ripple National Trust Bank. Ripple selected a trust designation under the “Special Focus” section, indicating it would focus on custody, asset protection, and fiduciary services. 

The filing also lists the bank as a Federal Reserve member institution. For the uninitiated, this status would allow Ripple’s bank to access Federal Reserve services and connect directly to the U.S. financial system. The proposed address for Ripple National Trust Bank is 111–119 West 19th Street, Floor 6, New York, New York. 

With conditional approval already granted in December 2025, market pundits have begun assessing how the completion of the process could impact the XRP price. Notably, XRP currently trades at $2.38 amid a recovery push that started at the start of the new year.

However, while most analysts expect Ripple’s bank launch to influence XRP’s value, the scale of that impact remains unclear. To assess this, we asked Google Gemini to assess potential price outcomes once Ripple completes the bank charter process.

XRP Price 1 Year After Ripple Launches Its National Bank

In response, Gemini pointed out that Ripple intends to use the bank mainly to manage reserves for its RLUSD stablecoin and to provide custody services for institutional clients. It stressed that markets often view a national bank charter as a strong regulatory endorsement.

According to Gemini, the positive case for XRP depends on real utility rather than hype. Notably, a federally regulated Ripple bank could make it easier for other financial institutions to use XRP for liquidity. This could expand XRP’s utility in institutional settlements.

Considering this, Gemini presented a hypothetical scenario one year after the bank becomes fully operational. In this case, increased institutional use and steady demand against a fixed supply could lead to higher prices. Based on utility-driven models, Gemini suggested a possible XRP price range of $10 to $15 by January 2027.

Notably, reaching $10 would mean roughly a fourfold increase from current levels and place XRP’s market value near $600 billion. Gemini noted that much higher price targets would require XRP to replace a large share of global banking liquidity, a shift that would likely take far longer to achieve.

A market analyst has revealed that the XRP inverted chart points to an imminent crash, but things take a bullish turn when you flip the chart upside down.

This commentary came from EGRAG Crypto, a well-known market watcher, amid XRP’s latest rebound effort, which has seen the crypto asset recover the $2 psychological mark. Specifically, XRP has gained nearly 30% over the past six days of 2026, now changing hands at $2.37.

However, EGRAG believes XRP still has more room for further growth. Interestingly, in his latest analysis, he employed an unusual approach by looking at XRP’s 1-month chart from an inverted point of view. According to him, this inverted chart suggests that XRP could be heading for a price crash.

Nonetheless, when viewed correctly by turning it upside down, EGRAG pointed out that the chart indicates something more “powerful.” 

The XRP Inverted Chart

For context, data from the inverted chart shows that whenever XRP breaks a crucial “support” level, what follows is a massive crash. This trend, which played out in 2017, led to EGRAG’s suggestion of an imminent crash.

However, when he flips the chart upside-down, the real story emerges. Specifically, the analyst’s suggestion of a break below support actually entails a break above resistance. In truth, the pattern indicates that whenever XRP breaks above a stubborn resistance mark, the next move is a powerful upsurge.

For instance, in Q4 2014, the XRP price engineered an impressive rally from November of that year, but met resistance at the stubborn roadblock around $0.028 by December 2014. This capped the upside momentum and led to a retracement that pushed XRP to a low of $0.00414 by November 2015.

However, after XRP retested the $0.028 resistance in 2017, it broke above it in April 2017, and this gave way to an explosive run, which met another resistance at $0.25 from Q2 to Q4 2017. 

When XRP breached this second resistance in December 2017, its price soared to the $3.31 peak in January 2018. Data from EGRAG’s chart indicates that the $3.31 peak represented an over 7,000% increase from the first roadblock at $0.028. Meanwhile, it marked a 1,200% rise from the second resistance at $0.25.

XRP Price Targets After $2 Breach

Most recently, XRP faced another stubborn resistance at the $2 price mark. Notably, this $2 level acted as an important point of interest throughout 2025, with XRP occasionally pushing above it and also dropping below it. In Q4 2025, XRP decisively collapsed below $2. However, the tables have turned in 2026, and EGRAG believes another explosive surge could emerge.

According to his chart, XRP has two possible targets beyond this $2 region. Specifically, the first target sits at $27, which represents a 1,200% increase from $2. Meanwhile, the second target stands at a massive $150 price, which would replicate the 7,000% rise in 2017. 

Notably, EGRAG suggested that the base case rally from this resistance would push XRP to a range of $24 to $30. He believes this scenario has a 60-65% probability of playing out in the next 6 to 18 months. Meanwhile, the extension target ranges from $80 to $150, which has a 20-25% probability of playing out.