Following the launch of spot XRP ETFs, conversations around whether XRP could face a supply shock have gained momentum.

This renewed interest has intensified on the back of a drop in exchange reserves on platforms like Binance. Amid the discussions, XRP community pundit Pumpius recently presented six practical situations that could trigger such a supply shock.

In a post on X, Pumpius noted that people often predict a dramatic supply shock that could push XRP much higher, yet only a few of them understand what actually causes one. 

According to him, a true supply squeeze happens only when XRP leaves the open market faster than new supply enters it. He claimed that nothing secret or sudden creates this scenario. Instead, it builds slowly as different forms of demand absorb available tokens. Pumpius then presented six ways such demand could occur.

ETFs, Institutions, and Corporate Treasuries

Specifically, he started with the first factor: spot ETF issuers must buy real XRP. Because these products rely on actual tokens rather than futures or synthetic exposure, issuers need to source XRP directly from exchanges. 

Notably, this steady buying reduces the amount of liquid supply left on trading platforms, as inflows persist. The Crypto Basic recently confirmed that XRP became the second-fastest to cross $800 million in ETF inflows. Today, these inflows have surged further to $874 million at press time.

Pumpius then highlighted the second factor, which involves banks and major asset managers. These institutions would need to hold XRP for settlement processes, treasury needs, and long-term liquidity planning, avoiding any frequent trades. Once they move XRP into custody, the asset leaves the circulating supply and no longer sits in the open market.

The third factor concerns corporate treasuries that could use the XRP Ledger for cross-border payments. According to Pumpius, when more of these companies adopt XRP-powered settlement corridors, they keep tokens in working capital accounts to support ongoing transactions. If they do not send this XRP back to exchanges, it remains locked away, contributing to the supply shock.

Ripple Escrow, On-chain Activity and ZK ID Infra

He then moved on to the fourth factor, which centers on Ripple’s escrow management. Pumpius explained that Ripple has no reason to release more supply than necessary, so the company could avoid releasing tokens from escrow. 

The fifth factor involves growing on-chain activity. In this case, more tokenized funds, RLUSD stablecoin operations, liquidity pools, identity layers, and payment corridors could expand on the XRP Ledger. Each of these use cases needs XRP to function, and that demand could remove additional tokens from active trading.

Finally, Pumpius highlighted the sixth factor: the introduction of zero-knowledge identity systems on the network. This new infrastructure could tie more XRP to identity-linked transactions and verification processes, which further reduces the amount of tradable supply.

When all these forces play out together, Pumpius noted that exchanges may begin to run low on inventory, OTC desks could tighten, and market liquidity would thin out. 

In such a scenario, buyers would then compete for a shrinking pool of available XRP, which naturally pushes prices higher. He added that real supply shocks do not build slowly in public view. Instead, they appear suddenly on the charts once pressure reaches a breaking point.

XRP researcher Ripple Bull Winkle has stressed that new XRP ETFs will require millions of XRP to meet demand. 

In his commentary, he argued that the public “won’t realize what happened until it’s too late”. His warning comes as large institutional investors are buying up XRP much faster than everyday traders realize. With more XRP ETFs coming, he believes a supply shortage may already be beginning.

Market Under Pressure, But ETFs Are Quietly Eating Into XRP Supply

In a recent video, Bull Winkle said XRP is building “pressure” beneath its price. He explained that XRP often performs best not when Bitcoin jumps sharply, but when Bitcoin steadies.

Meanwhile, retail investors have largely left the market. Many traders exited positions after volatility spikes, while institutions continued accumulating. This divergence is a major reason why the XRP chart “feels different” despite short-term price declines.

One of the strongest data points he highlighted came from Canary Capital. The XRP ETF has now accumulated $342 million worth of XRP, with consistent inflows into its ETF every trading day since its November launch.

Meanwhile, Canary Capital is not the only ETF buying up XRP. Other asset managers like Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin are also posting massive inflows since launch.

In particular, Grayscale has seen $211 million in inflows to its GXRP ETF, while Bitwise has seen $184.87 million. Franklin Templeton has also seen $132.3 million in inflows since launch.

Cumulatively, XRP ETFs have seen investments totaling $887.12 million, with total assets worth over $881.25 million.

To Bull Winkle, this is the clearest sign yet that ETFs and institutions believe the market is mispricing XRP “by a mile”. 

Notably, two other XRP ETFs are set to launch this month, including 21Shares and WisdomTree. More ETF launches create more avenues for issuers to buy massive quantities of XRP to support inflows, and that accumulation happens quietly, off-exchange, until it is reflected in liquidity.

The Countdown to Real Price Discovery

According to the researcher, retail investors are repeatedly asking the wrong question: “Why isn’t XRP’s price moving?”

He explains that the action is happening behind the scenes. Institutions are buying, ETFs are preparing, and liquidity is shrinking.

Once ETF filings start competing for XRP, he expects a significant price jump. By then, retail FOMO usually kicks in, but historically, that happens after most of the move is already completed.

Other Analysts Agree

Interestingly, several other XRP analysts share this view regarding XRP supply. Zach Rector argues that XRP’s tradable supply is below 10 billion, much below the roughly 60 billion circulating supply shown by trackers.

Others, like Jake Claver, have said ETFs are rapidly depleting OTC/dark-pool reserves, with only 1–2 billion XRP previously available privately. Claver claims this limited supply could trigger a “crazy” price spike as demand outpaces accessible liquidity.

A popular XRP community figure has warned investors to sell their XRP and walk away if they do not understand Ripple’s vision. 

Egrag, a well-known voice in the community, issued the warning on X in response to a new announcement from Ripple’s partner, GTreasury. His message, which underscores Ripple’s push to build a comprehensive digital asset infrastructure, suggests that major structural changes are rapidly forming around the company.

According to Egrag, investors who cannot grasp the significance of these developments may be better off liquidating their XRP holdings and walking away. 

If you don't understand what's written below, it might be a good idea to sell your #XRP and walk away. https://t.co/D35bXEnHl1

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) December 5, 2025

GTreasury Confirms Joining Ripple 

Egrag’s warning followed an announcement from GTreasury, a 40-year leader in corporate treasury management. The company revealed that it is now officially part of Ripple, marking a significant expansion of Ripple’s capabilities as it moves deeper into enterprise financial infrastructure.

GTreasury added that, under Ripple, it will help usher clients into the digital asset era by offering institutional-grade infrastructure and real-time settlement options.

This disclosure came in direct response to Ripple’s broader announcement, in which the company highlighted a series of major acquisitions it intends to leverage to build the world’s first unified digital asset infrastructure platform.  

4 Acquisitions to Drive 1 Goal 

In a message titled “Four Major Acquisitions, One Goal,” Ripple outlined its most significant purchases of the year, such as Rail, GTreasury, Ripple Prime (formerly Hidden Road), and Palisade.

Ripple stated that these acquisitions will accelerate its development of a one-stop digital asset infrastructure. This platform will combine all essential financial components offered by these firms, such as custody, treasury management, payments, and real-time settlement, into a single ecosystem.

Ripple stressed that these moves are part of its broader mission to build the infrastructure powering the internet of value, where money moves as seamlessly as information does today.

Egrag’s Reaction  

Notably, Egrag’s provocative commentary stems from his belief that these acquisitions mark a historic acceleration of Ripple’s long-term vision of building the internet of value—one that many XRP investors continue to overlook. 

His remarks imply that if investors fail to understand how Ripple’s integration of enterprise-grade treasury systems, liquidity solutions, and real-time settlement rails positions XRP at the core of future global finance, then they may not fully grasp the value of the asset they hold. 

Although most of the acquisitions did not explicitly mention XRP or highlight its role, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had emphasized that the token remains at the heart of everything it does, including strategic acquisitions. 

While Egrag’s message might seem provocative to many, it serves as a wake-up call for investors to educate themselves about how Ripple is evolving into a full-scale digital financial infrastructure provider, which could benefit holders of XRP. 

A market pundit has suggested that it’s interesting that Franklin Templeton sees XRP as foundational to global settlement, but not because of the potential price impact.

This statement came from Tyler Hill, co-founder and CEO of Fluence, amid an impressive rise in institutional interest in XRP over the past few months. For context, Franklin Templeton, the $1.6 trillion asset manager, praised XRP following the launch of their Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) on Nov. 24, the fourth pure spot XRP ETF to launch last month.

In the announcement, Franklin Templeton praised XRP for facilitating the seamless movement of money across borders quickly and at a low cost, further calling attention to XRP’s long track record in digital payments. 

Franklin Calls XRP Foundation to Global Settlements

David Mann, Head of ETF Product and Capital Markets at Franklin Templeton, also emphasized that XRPZ gives investors a straightforward and regulated way to invest in an asset that “plays a foundational role in global settlement infrastructure,” while maintaining the transparency and oversight expected from an ETF.

Since launch, XRPZ has attracted $132.3 million in net inflows, contributing to the $887 million netflows recorded by the four XRP ETFs in the market as of press time. While many analysts remain bullish on the potential price impact of the capital flows from XRPZ and the other ETFs, Tyler Hill is more interested in what these recent developments mean for XRP.

Notably, for an asset that faced a series of delistings in December 2020 and January 2021 due to the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple, XRP has come a long way in terms of institutional adoption. Throughout its four-year legal battle with the SEC, most institutions avoided XRP, choosing not to build any products around it for fear of regulatory repercussions.

Now, Franklin Templeton, one of the largest asset managers globally, has not just launched a financial wrapper around XRP, but is shilling the crypto asset as “foundational” to global payments. Tyler Hill believes this is especially noteworthy.

XRP Witnessing Growing Institutional Interest

According to him, this development shows that large institutions appear to be quietly rebuilding their exposure to digital assets that sit at the infrastructure layer of global finance. For context, these projects, such as XRP, support payment rails, settlement systems, and cross-border movement of value.

Besides Franklin Templeton, other financial institutions like Bitwise, Grayscale, and Canary Capital have also launched XRP ETFs, confirming the trend highlighted by Hill. Meanwhile, financial bodies such as the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the US Faster Payments Council (FPC) have touted XRP’s ability to facilitate seamless cross-border payments.

In addition, some firms have taken to launching corporate XRP treasuries amid the rise in global institutional adoption. For instance, in June, Webus International filed with the U.S. SEC to launch a $300 million XRP treasury. Reliance Group, Trident Digital, VivoPower, and Evernorth have also expressed interest in launching XRP treasuries.