The Crypto Basic

Evernorth Holdings, the largest public XRP treasury company, is changing the terms of its planned stock market listing.

The company said on Thursday that investors’ shares will now be based on XRP’s value when the deal closes, instead of the $2.36 XRP price originally used when the deal was agreed. This change seeks to better align the company’s share structure with the actual value of its XRP holdings at closing.

Fewer Shares Could Mean More XRP Per Share

Under the amended terms, the number of shares issued at closing will decline if XRP remains below the $2.36 level used in the original agreement. XRP is currently trading at around $1.00, down 45% since January 2026.

That would spread Evernorth’s XRP treasury across fewer shares, meaning each share would represent a larger portion of the company’s underlying XRP holdings.

The adjustment is to keep Evernorth’s capitalization more closely aligned with the market value of its XRP treasury as it prepares to enter the public market. The mechanism can operate in either direction, depending on XRP’s closing price.

Investors Back Revised Terms

Evernorth said investors representing more than 95% of committed capital have agreed to the revised structure. Notably, all of the company’s advance funders have signed on to the changes.

The Armada II sponsor has also agreed to adjust its founder shares on the same proportional basis as the advance funding investors, creating similar treatment across the transaction’s stakeholders.

Evernorth CEO Asheesh Birla said that linking the share count to XRP’s closing price would preserve investor alignment while supporting the company’s strategy to expand institutional access to the XRP ecosystem.

XRP Treasury Strategy Remains Unchanged

Despite the restructuring, Evernorth said its XRP holdings and strategy remain unchanged.

The company plans to focus on increasing XRP per share through capital allocation, participation in the XRP ecosystem, and treasury operations. Its investors include Arrington Capital, SBI Group, Ripple, Pantera Capital, Kraken and GSR, among others.

The revised terms were filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission through an amended Form S-4 registration statement.

Evernorth Nasdaq Listing Expected Later This Year

Evernorth’s proposed business combination with Armada Acquisition Corp. II is expected to close in late Q3 or early Q4 2026, subject to SEC review and customary closing conditions.

The deal would allow public investors to invest in Evernorth and gain exposure to its XRP holdings. The company’s share structure is designed to better reflect the value of its XRP treasury when it goes public.

XRP withdrawals from centralized exchanges have surged as the token continues to struggle in a prolonged downtrend.

Notably, XRP has lost more than 72% from its $3.6 all-time high, but exchange data shows that more XRP exchange transactions now involve withdrawals. 

XRP Exchange Withdrawals Reach a Seven-Year High

Market watcher Amr Taha called attention to this trend in a recent analysis, noting that withdrawals have reached their highest share of XRP exchange transactions since 2019.

Importantly, the increase appears across both Binance and the wider centralized exchange market. On Aug. 14, withdrawals made up 56.85% of XRP exchange transactions on Binance, while withdrawals across all CEXs reached 54.9%. 

At the same time, deposit transactions fell to their lowest shares since 2019. For context, Binance deposits accounted for 43.12%, while deposits across all CEXs stood at 45.0%.

Binance Records a Wider Gap

Notably, the trend appears to be more dominant on Binance, where the share of withdrawal transactions now stands 13.73 percentage points above the share of deposits. 

Across all centralized exchanges, the gap reached 9.9 percentage points. This shows that XRP exchange activity has moved more toward withdrawals in recent days.

According to Taha, the figures use a seven-day measure, so the latest readings do not simply reflect activity from one day. Instead, they show a more sustained change in exchange transaction activity. 

The fact that Binance and the broader CEX market are showing similar trends also suggests that the trend is not limited to one exchange.

However, the data does not confirm that XRP is seeing net outflows from exchanges or that investors are accumulating the token. 

The metric measures the share of transaction counts rather than the amount of XRP transferred. As a result, the higher withdrawal share only shows that withdrawal transactions currently make up a larger part of exchange activity. It does not show whether more XRP is leaving exchanges than entering them.

XRP Price Remains Weak

Meanwhile, XRP currently trades at $1.0036, with a 24-hour trading volume of $932.3 million and a market cap of $63.19 billion. XRP recently dropped below $1 for the first time this year, but buyers stepped in and defended the level.

The technical picture remains bearish. XRP trades below its 50-day SMA near $1.0775 and its 200-day SMA near $1.2973, forming a death cross setup. The weekly RSI also remains weak at 31.19, confirming continued selling pressure but not yet firmly oversold.

For buyers to regain control in the short term, XRP needs to close above $1.22 for three straight days. This move could improve its momentum. On the other hand, a break below $1 could increase the downside risk and open the way for institutional outflows.

XRP ETF Demand Has Also Slowed

Also, institutional demand for XRP has weakened sharply as well. Spot XRP ETFs attracted only $27.29 million throughout July, far below the $666 million they brought in during their first month of trading in November 2025. Out of July’s 22 trading sessions, 11 recorded zero flows, showing how limited demand became during the month.

August has not brought much improvement so far. Notably, XRP ETFs recorded zero flows for four straight days before receiving a small $2.2 million inflow yesterday. Together with XRP’s weak price action, the low ETF flows show that institutional demand has cooled considerably.

As XRP retests the key $1 psychological level, market data suggests that the lack of reasonable demand around this area could lead to steeper declines.

XRP remains under pressure as the broader market downtrend continues. The crypto asset has already fallen 45.4% this year, with its price dropping to $1.0047 and testing the psychological $1 level.

Despite the decline so far, CryptoQuant analyst Pelinay believes XRP could still fall another 50% from current levels. Such a move could send the crypto asset back to levels last seen before the November 2024 rally.

XRP Whale Activity Has Changed

Notably, Pelinay’s analysis looks at XRP’s price action alongside whale activity. According to the analyst, XRP’s drop toward $1 is bigger than just a loss of an important support level. 

The behavior of large holders has also changed, although current whale activity does not appear to be the main reason behind the latest decline.

For context, the Whale-to-Exchange Flow indicator recorded major spikes during sudden price moves in 2025 and early 2026. During those periods, large amounts of XRP moved to Binance. 

When whale transfers to exchanges rise, they can create more selling pressure because they increase the amount of XRP that large holders could sell. CryptoQuant also considers sudden increases in whale inflows as possible signs of a change in the price trend.

However, the current data is sending a different signal. Notably, Whale-to-Exchange Flow now stands at just 77, below the large spikes seen during earlier periods. 

The latest reading also represents a decline of around 38.9%. This suggests that whales are not currently sending large amounts of XRP to Binance as the price moves toward $1. As a result, Pelinay says it would be wrong to directly attribute XRP’s current decline to whale selling.

Weak Demand Could Lead to $0.50

Falling whale activity does not necessarily mean buyers have returned. XRP has continued to make lower levels after reaching a peak of around $3.39 and has now moved toward the $1 region. 

At the same time, Whale-to-Exchange Flow has steadily declined. The combination of these two trends suggests that much of the heavy selling from large holders may have already taken place.

The bigger concern may now be the lack of strong new demand. Market data continues to show XRP struggling around $1, and the cryptocurrency would need strong spot buying to stage a meaningful recovery. 

In other words, a decline in whale selling can reduce some selling pressure, but it cannot by itself create the demand XRP needs to reverse the downtrend.

At XRP’s current price of $1.004, $1.13 acts as an intermediate resistance level. Meanwhile, the $0.52 area marks the Fibonacci 1.272 level. This makes the $1 support important in the near term. If XRP breaks and stays below $1, the decline could widen and bring the $0.52 region into play.

Importantly, Pelinay noted that she does not expect whale selling to increase for this scenario to play out. Weak demand alone could push XRP toward the $0.50–$0.52 zone. 

If buyers fail to provide enough spot demand around $1, XRP could continue making lower levels even as whale transfers to exchanges remain low. In this case, another 50% decline remains possible, with the $0.50-$0.52 area becoming the next major downside target.

A recent XRP market exposition highlights the good, the bad, and the ugly aspects of XRP’s current price situation.

XRP has remained under pressure as the broader crypto market struggles, down 45% this year. Amid the decline, market analyst CryptoInsightUK recently assessed XRP’s current position by looking at the good, the bad, and the ugly sides of its price situation.

The Bad: XRP Could Face More Downside

For the bad side, CryptoInsightUK assessed XRP’s open interest and leverage. Notably, lower-timeframe liquidity heat maps show about 7% downside from current levels. A drop to around $0.89 could remove roughly $157 million in long positions through liquidations.

Also, the daily timeframe presents a wider downside range of 15% to 22%-23%. The market analyst considers the 15% target more likely, which would put XRP near $0.85. 

A full sweep of the 22%-23% liquidity could take the price toward $0.77. He also noted that markets take liquidity about 80% of the time, although some liquidity can remain untouched.

XRP’s price structure also adds to the bearish case, as the token continues to form lower highs and lower lows. The first major area sits around $0.93, or about 7% below the current level. 

This area previously acted as resistance, including around the period when Judge Torres ruled that XRP was not a security and before the 2022 bear-market capitulation.

He also identified $0.75 as another important support level, representing roughly a 25% decline, while $0.66 could mark a worst-case 35% drawdown. However, his preferred downside target remains between $0.88 and $0.925 because liquidity sweeps can push price slightly below the actual liquidation zone.

The Ugly: XRP Could Underperform Bitcoin and Ethereum

In the ugly aspect, CryptoInsightUK compared XRP with other major cryptocurrencies. Against Ethereum, XRP could record a possible 13% decline toward the first major support area. 

A deeper move could produce a 49% decline, potentially closing fair-value gaps and reaching the order block that appeared before XRP’s previous expansion.

However, this does not necessarily mean XRP must fall that much in dollar terms. Ethereum could simply outperform while XRP moves sideways. 

Another possibility is that ETH rises while XRP declines. For example, if ETH gains 25% while XRP falls 25%, the difference between their performances would be roughly 50%.

XRP could also lose ground against Bitcoin. CryptoInsightUK sees room for a decline of about 26% toward an earlier order block. A deeper move toward 0.00001 would represent roughly a 37% loss against Bitcoin. The 0.00003 area has also remained an important resistance level since around 2019-2020.

Another concern is XRP’s dominance. CryptoInsightUK believes the chart may have completed a Wyckoff accumulation pattern and then formed a bull flag or descending-wedge consolidation. However, XRP dominance recently broke below the structure. A deeper 43% decline could push dominance toward 1.6%.

Meanwhile, XRP’s open interest has increased by roughly $400 million to $500 million from its recent lows. Funding rates can help indicate whether traders have added more longs or shorts, creating the potential for forced selling or buying if the price moves suddenly.

The Good: Massive Upside Potential

In the bullish case, CryptoInsightUK highlighted liquidity above XRP. According to him, XRP would need to rise at least 197% to reach the nearest major upside liquidity area. Another liquidity target could require a gain of as much as 330%.

The analyst also noted that a move to $1.48 could liquidate about $727 million in leveraged XRP short positions. Such a squeeze could create additional buying pressure if XRP begins moving higher.

Another bullish signal comes from XRP’s weekly RSI. The indicator entered oversold territory only for the second time in XRP’s history. The previous occurrence preceded a gain of about 1,085%. If XRP repeated that performance, the price could reach roughly $11.

Regarding the monthly RSI, the 44-47.5 range has historically marked important XRP price lows, yet the indicator has now fallen to around 40, its lowest reading on record. Previous bear-market lows occurred near $0.32, $0.16, and $0.004 before XRP eventually entered the overbought zone on the monthly RSI.

Historical gains from those cycles ranged from about 1,000% to as much as 86,000%. CryptoInsightUK expects the next major Elliott Wave move to include a third wave and says his current wave count would require at least a 600% increase. He uses a more conservative 1,000% gain as a possible reference point.

He also expects XRP to eventually retest its previous all-time highs against Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP dominance. If the broader setup plays out, Fibonacci analysis points toward a target near $14, with the possibility of a larger blow-off move above that level.